LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 All ensemble means are still off the coast right? If any 18z GFs ensembles support this, we in deep sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I don’t think so lol. Been talking about it since this morning. The ne low moving out is letting it come north but I think that feature circled is what’s pulling it west Respectfully disagree. To me the changes that make this thing cut is simply the trough axis to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 This sums up today’s model watching: 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yep, good now. I fully agree, thats the feature I'm focusing on post hr 96. IMO at hour 126 the storm could not be in a better place. Any slight weakening/lessening of the feature I circled and this goes right up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, H2O said: Umm it isn’t. It’s a west track, the high up top goes East and the winds blow off the oceans for hours with southerly flow. You can warm surface temps just as fast as you can cool them Amen. Saw that with the Feb 2014 storm. Was around 20 or in the lower 20s when the snow began. Thought it would take a long while, then the winds started shifting from the east and picked up. Temps climbed into the lower 30s very quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, H2O said: Respectfully disagree. To me the changes that make this thing cut is simply the trough axis to the NE. In all honesty, I truly believe this is gonna end up perfect. Or a cutter west of the Apps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Guys, it's a deterministic at Day 6. Yes, as it shows, it would be an I-81 special and people east of Rt 15 would get a driving sleet/rain before changing back. There's too many variables on the table to decipher before pegging any particular solution. There could even be a piece that's not even modeled that could throw another variable into the mix. Welcome to the world of chaos with a dynamic fluid that is the atmosphere. 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: All ensemble means are still off the coast right? If any 18z GFs ensembles support this, we in deep sh*t I know this is kind of a weenie sentiment, but I'd like to give this another 24 hours before we kill this. Couple of things I'm looking for: 1.) Do we see this west trend continue? 2.) Would like to see what happens once we get this system onshore an into the North American upper air network. 3.) Hopefully we can get the antecedent high into a better position. We need it over Quebec, not New England, to lock in the cold and prevent the coastal from running inland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 looks like the GEFS actually increased the confluent flow over the NE, this is great to see the vort itself is stronger as well. confluence will almost always exert itself more than a shortwave, so a mixture of both would still result in a more favorable track the majority of the time 10 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Sure looks like the Rose Hill weenie wasn't satisfied with his one big snowstorm like he said. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Close to 6 days out and somebody starts a storm thread. From now on let's just have CAPE or WINTERWXLUVR start the storm threads. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Every run takes the ne feature farther away. Shocker It’s more than the storm is slowing down so that by the time it gets to the east the flow relaxes. There has been a slight relaxation the last 2 runs but it’s more the change in timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: It’s more than the storm is slowing down so that by the time it gets to the east the flow relaxes. There has been a slight relaxation the last 2 runs but it’s more the change in timing. Yeah when I was watching everything from h66 on, it was obvious this was a slower flow. That is a negative in certain ways for us, especially with a trailing piece having some influence it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 From the pit of despair, to the top of the mountains, to off the cliff in 24 hours. Never change, weenies. 2 7 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 5:24 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s next weekend that I think is worthy of monitoring. Trust me. I won’t let you down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FamouslyHot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: looks like the GEFS actually increased the confluent flow over the NE, this is great to see the vort itself is stronger as well. confluence will almost always exert itself more than a shortwave, so a mixture of both would still result in a more favorable track the majority of the time Sorry, but this map doesn't show blue over MBY so I'm going to ignore it 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 as expected, given the stronger confluence, the OP GFS is a significant western outlier compared to the GEFS 9 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: as expected, given the stronger confluence, the OP GFS is a significant western outlier compared to the GEFS Yep. Not seeing a lot of what the OP is selling. p25 the only member buying in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Trust me. I won’t let you down Are you assuming liability? Hope ya got insurance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Are you assuming liability? Hope ya got insurance He's got Boardwalk and Park Place, as I recall! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s more than the storm is slowing down so that by the time it gets to the east the flow relaxes. There has been a slight relaxation the last 2 runs but it’s more the change in timing. Don’t disagree on the slowing, but that feature in the ne is definitely speeding up. These maps are at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: as expected, given the stronger confluence, the OP GFS is a significant western outlier compared to the GEFS 18z GEFS loses almost all of the inland lows. Really hope Crack. GFS and Euro runs are just too wound up and smoking crack. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Are you assuming liability? Hope ya got insurance No, all liability lies with @stormtracker 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yep. Not seeing a lot of what the OP is selling. p25 the only member buying in. Yeah...there's a couple in there (p03 and p25) that are more borderline, but not even close to what the 18Z deterministic ops shows. And still a decent number of what would be shutouts or near-shutouts...as well as what look like good hits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah...there's a couple in there (p03 and p25) that are more borderline, but not even close to what the 18Z deterministic ops shows. And still a decent number of what would be shutouts or near-shutouts...as well as what look like good hits. yes -- despite the good hits and a still pretty stellar mean, overall probability is low. however, if it hits... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The 18z GFS ensembles saved many weenie lives in here just now until the 18z euro rolls in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Long time lurker here, can someone tell me why the operational model is so different than the ensembles? I thought OP was a blend of all the ensembles. 18z OP certainly doesn’t look like a blend. Almost all ensembles have low off the coast?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 They call the 18z GFS the pub run in the UK. Apparently this one is a tavern run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: The 18z GFS ensembles saved many weenie lives in here just now until the 18z euro rolls in 18z Euro doesn't cover the whole storm, the Euro ens goes further (to 120 I believe for 18z) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: In all honesty, I truly believe this is gonna end up perfect. Or a cutter west of the Apps. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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