MLK 2022 Storm Potential

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Was there any way this could have gone worse for us?

Change was to is and the answer is a definite … 

[KAOS]

This pretty much sums up the storm for those of us east of 95....

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Is that DT?  If he were a CEO my wife would fire him with extreme prejudice.   

I gotta admit that was pretty funny though. 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chilland @MillvilleWxdId a great job explaining but I get why many casual observers are confused. This isn’t a typical setup. The physics make sense but to those that just observe and base expectations on typical synoptic progressions this is odd.  This was actually a really good longwave setup but a lot of details had to go wrong to get this outcome. 
 

First we’re on the backside of a trough in a NW flow and there is confluence over the top right now. That’s why the SW is diving SSE down the Miss valley and digging to to gulf coast.  To get that there has to be a NW flow. And so normally there is no way that leads to rain.  And I can understand the superficial confusion. But then everything goes wrong in a very rare combination. 
 

The upper low is way too amplified and cuts off way too early. That alone would be odd but we could survive that except that for the another very energetic NS SW digs in and phases at exactly the wrong time which manages to turn the whole trough on its axis in a very tight window. We go from being on the backside in a suppressive flow today to a neg tilt trough to our west in 24 hours. That’s special in a bad luck way. 
 

That NS SW had to be exactly where it was on the exact trajectory and amplitude to pull that. Faster and it would have been pulled east over the top by the current suppression and would have helped resist the SE flow ahead of the anomalous closed low.  Slower and it doesn’t pull off the phase in time and the upper low gets further East before it turns north. But no it was exactly where and how it needed to be to screw up an otherwise good longwave setup. Oh well. 

Look at the mslp plots without the L. There is no defined closed surface circulation. There is no classic surface low. This is all mid and upper level driven. There is a strung out negatively tilted trough of low pressure along the convection associated with the SE flow ahead of the mid and upper low. Where the L shows each panel is just a function of where the lowest pressure by 1mb happens the be along that trough at any given moment likely convection induced. It’s irrelevant whether it’s over Hagerstown or DC or the bay at any given moment. That feature isn’t driving the bus here anyways. 

It certainly could have worked if the randomness(luck) would have turned out a little differently. That said, the overall synoptics up top as advertised leading in was just "off" from what I want to see for my location. I know where you are the warts can be overcome more easily, so we often differ on our perspectives of what is favorable for a good outcome. Rapidly retreating cold air mass is a big red flag for me.

[psuhoffman]

Another detail that went wrong that globals won’t be able to pin down at range was the exact trajectory of the SE flow and associated waa precip. It ended up aimed more to our SW until after we lose the mid levels.  More e to w v s to n. That’s a worse angle to maximize the WAA before we lose the mid levels. 

[SoCoSailer]

 

FWIW The long range Hrrrr holds onto hope for the warm nose not being as strong as modeled by the NAM

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Is that DT?  If he were a CEO my wife would fire him with extreme prejudice.   

I’m scared of your wife. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, KAOS said:

This pretty much sums up the storm for those of us east of 95....

 

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, SoCoSailer said:

 

FWIW The long range Hrrrr holds onto hope for the warm nose not being as strong as modeled by the NAM

I’ll hug this until Monday. 

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It certainly could have worked if the randomness(luck) would have turned out a little differently. That said, the overall synoptics up top as advertised leading in was just "off" from what I want to see for my location. I know where you are the warts can be overcome more easily, so we often differ on our perspectives of what is favorable for a good outcome. Rapidly retreating cold air mass is a big red flag for me.

We have very diff climo.  We don’t share many big snows. The huge ones yea but more typically if I’m getting 12+ you’re raining and if you are I’m smoking cirrus. The 95 corridor is in between and can get the NW edge of southern sliders or the SE edge of more amplified coastal climbers. You want to the slider.  A storm amplifying up the coast is a loser east of 95 90% of the time. My comments were more for 95 west. I don’t think east of the bay was ever in play in this setup once the confluence broke down.

 

But there was a way that doesn’t happen so fast. Adjust that NS wave digging in and we get way less ridging in front. It’s not like the pattern is awful. Just bad timing with that feature. 

[IronTy]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m scared of your wife. 

You and the 14 CEOs she oversees.   Private Equity is top of the capitalist food chain...for better or worse.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We have very diff climo.  We don’t share many big snows. The huge ones yea but more typically if I’m getting 12+ you’re raining and if you are I’m smoking cirrus. The 95 corridor is in between and can get the NE edge of southern sliders or the SE edge of more amplified coastal climbers. You want to the slider.  A storm amplifying up the coast is a lower east of 95 90% of the time. My comments were more for 95 west. I don’t think east of the bay was ever in play in this setup once the confluence broke down.

 

But there was a way that doesn’t happen so fast. Adjust that NS wave digging in and we get way less ridging in front. It’s not like the pattern is awful. Just bad timing with that feature. 

Timing is even more important when the flow is progressive. Cold doesn't stay around long. Underscores the importance for at least some blocking up top. That big ocean low could have been a nice 50-50 and given us the confluence we needed, but it was flying up through the Maritimes with no block to slow it. Could have still worked, but again, timing. That NS sw probably would not have been an issue either had the look up top been better, ofc then we would have had the southern slider failure mode option lol.

[SnowGolfBro]

39 minutes ago, KAOS said:

This pretty much sums up the storm for those of us east of 95....

Shafted?!

[KAOS]

Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Shafted?!

That's one way of putting it.

[clskinsfan]

I am going to bust badly:

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

I am going to bust badly:

Look at that back edge in the OV…how can that be right?  It’s blue crayon 

[WVclimo]

LWX dropped the forecasted low temperature tonight to 5°F for Hagerstown and Martinsburg.

[aldie 22]

Congrats Huntington 

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Timing is even more important when the flow is progressive. Cold doesn't stay around long. Underscores the importance for at least some blocking up top. That big ocean low could have been a nice 50-50 and given us the confluence we needed, but it was flying up through the Maritimes with no block to slow it. Could have still worked, but again, timing. That NS sw probably would not have been an issue either had the look up top been better, ofc then we would have had the southern slider failure mode option lol.

I think we’re just analyzing it from different angles.  Lots of intricacies. But Imo (and again maybe this is our climo) when we have a great pac like now we don’t need a cut off Rex block over Greenland.  We actually were teased with that for a couple days and that’s when this storm was getting squashed!  It was too much!  We have a NW flow from the pac longwave pattern, a full ok Rex block is probably too much of a good thing. We need some suppression and the regular old -NAO ridge provided that.  It got the SW to dig to GA. But then we need the flow to relax or this is a southern slider like guidance was showing a week ago when there was a Rex block and it wasn’t relaxing in time. We need whatever dives in on the NW flow to be able to turn the corner and amplify up the coast or it’s a cold dry congrats NC pattern!  This isn’t 2010. We actually had a trough in the SW so we wanted that crazy block to resist the juiced stj systems that wanted to cut up the east absent that block. That was a perfect combo. Put that block in this pac look and it’s 1977. The bay might freeze over but we won’t get much snow. 

So my reasoning for focusing on the NS energy behind is that’s the one variable that could have changed this to a white outcome. From where this is in GA we need the flow to relax. No way that affects us at all otherwise. The system had to start to lift from there. So the suppression relaxing when it does is necessary. But that stupid SW diving in behind over amplifies and turns the whole thing negative on a dime.  You’re 100% about all the other ways this could have been stopped from cutting but most of those result in a suppressed wave that gets no snow north of Richmond imo. But removing that NS piece allows this to turn the corner but without the phase and going nuts. I think we could have worked with that. Not some huge storm but better than this result.  But where you are turning the corner comes with precip type risks so I can see you rooting to be on the northern edge of the suppressed idea. I smoke cirrus in that scenario so…no thabks
 

So what you’re describing 

[Kleimax]

15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am going to bust badly:

Congrats Erie

[lpaschall]

We have been running about 4-5 degrees colder than forecasted. Currently 18/3 in Westminster.

11 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

LWX dropped the forecasted low temperature tonight to 5°F for Hagerstown and Martinsburg.

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we’re just analyzing it from different angles.  Lots of intricacies. But Imo (and again maybe this is our climo) when we have a great pac like now we don’t need a cut off Rex block over Greenland.  We actually were teased with that for a couple days and that’s when this storm was getting squashed!  It was too much!  We have a NW flow from the pac longwave pattern, a full ok Rex block is probably too much of a good thing. We need some suppression and the regular old -NAO ridge provided that.  It got the SW to dig to GA. But then we need the flow to relax or this is a southern slider like guidance was showing a week ago when there was a Rex block and it wasn’t relaxing in time. We need whatever dives in on the NW flow to be able to turn the corner and amplify up the coast or it’s a cold dry congrats NC pattern!  This isn’t 2010. We actually had a trough in the SW so we wanted that crazy block to resist the juiced stj systems that wanted to cut up the east absent that block. That was a perfect combo. Put that block in this pac look and it’s 1977. The bay might freeze over but we won’t get much snow. 

So my reasoning for focusing on the NS energy behind is that’s the one variable that could have changed this to a white outcome. From where this is in GA we need the flow to relax. No way that affects us at all otherwise. The system had to start to lift from there. So the suppression relaxing when it does is necessary. But that stupid SW diving in behind over amplifies and turns the whole thing negative on a dime.  You’re 100% about all the other ways this could have been stopped from cutting but most of those result in a suppressed wave that gets no snow north of Richmond imo. But removing that NS piece allows this to turn the corner but without the phase and going nuts. I think we could have worked with that. Not some huge storm but better than this result.  But where you are turning the corner comes with precip type risks so I can see you rooting to be on the northern edge of the suppressed idea. I smoke cirrus in that scenario so…no thabks
 

So what you’re describing 

The strength and timing of NS sw diving in behind ended up being the nail in the coffin so to speak, but before that there were inherent flaws out in front. The Arctic cold was always fleeting, and the High was always exiting stage right, and that was always going to turn the flow more easterly. And again, with a better look up top- blocked flow/low off the Maritimes and HP further west, we likely don't get that sw diving in like that. That is neither here nor there at this point though.

[dsnowman]

Forecast high for western Fairfax County today = 30. Actual high temperature = 26. A great battle between the surface and atmosphere is about to ensue.

[aldie 22]

I think the cloud cover helped keep the temps down if a lower temp at game time means anything it's probably a little more ice until temps get into the 60s. Congrats Akron

[clskinsfan]

The gulf is open for business.

[paxpatriot]

44 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Congrats Erie

I actually made that joke to a friend earlier this week when the western shift started. We both had a good laugh.

I brought this on myself.

[WesternFringe]

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

I will take my 14” and run.  If only that were to verify!

[Warm Nose]

57 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

LWX dropped the forecasted low temperature tonight to 5°F for Hagerstown and Martinsburg.

That's not really something to 'like' unless you want a sheet of ice a half inch thick.

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The gulf is open for business.

And it's selling unseasonable warmth! 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Look at that back edge in the OV…how can that be right?  It’s blue crayon 

The NAM showed that on our first winter storm and it basically nailed it.