WVclimo Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Really bullish. Going all in on 12-18” for Garrett County through Monday night. Lines up well with the latest Euro which is ~18” by Tuesday day break. The WAA could surprise if we can score some good banding and keep the 700-850 levels colder. But I still think bulk of the snow is actually overnight Sunday/Monday into Monday night. Fun few days coming up! You should get some great snow drifts out that way. Enjoy ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 In my neck of the woods, climo tells me we wind up with slop and very little on the ground after all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Fearless Weatherman forecast for up here. 12-20". Seems in line with guidance. https://whitegrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Fearless-Forecast-Jan-15.txt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 No change for my prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro Yeah. The Euro is on crack. I hope its right but If we get 10 inches with a track like that I will become a Vikings fan. My call for the Shenandoah Valley. WInchester: 3-4 inches with .1-.25 crust on top Woodstock: 4-5 inches same crust Harrisonburg: 5-6 inches with .05-.1 crust Staunton: 6-8 very little crust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 TWC still bullish 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: He’s blaming the NWS for his failure. That is unacceptable, everyone knew his forecast was stupid and to save face he is blaming them. How is he not a loser? David is perhaps the best discusser I know of what it takes for the area to get big snow versus not. Unfortunately, for reasons that elude me, he is much less skilled at accurately predicting what an individual event will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, wxtrix said: he’s an asshole. Always succinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Final call 2 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, wxtrix said: he’s an asshole. I second this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Final call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s easy to lose sight of things. If the storm fails, so be it. For the record I’m not on that train yet. But even if it does, the last few days have been fun. Interaction amongst this crew is awesome. I have laughed more times than I can count. Isn’t that what we are here for. Our thoughts and observations have nothing at all to do with the weather that actually transpires. We do this for fun. Keep that in mind. Thank you for this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18Z HRRR a little quicker with onset. Gets flakes out here by midday tomorrow. But very light stuff to start out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Final call The ground is pretty much frozen solid, I wonder what'll happen when we get heavy rain here? Seems like a recipe for a messy flooding muddy mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The story of this storm really can be told by looking at the 850 mb height/vort and wind panels. @Bob Chilland @MillvilleWxdId a great job explaining but I get why many casual observers are confused. This isn’t a typical setup. The physics make sense but to those that just observe and base expectations on typical synoptic progressions this is odd. This was actually a really good longwave setup but a lot of details had to go wrong to get this outcome. First we’re on the backside of a trough in a NW flow and there is confluence over the top right now. That’s why the SW is diving SSE down the Miss valley and digging to to gulf coast. To get that there has to be a NW flow. And so normally there is no way that leads to rain. And I can understand the superficial confusion. But then everything goes wrong in a very rare combination. The upper low is way too amplified and cuts off way too early. That alone would be odd but we could survive that except that for the another very energetic NS SW digs in and phases at exactly the wrong time which manages to turn the whole trough on its axis in a very tight window. We go from being on the backside in a suppressive flow today to a neg tilt trough to our west in 24 hours. That’s special in a bad luck way. That NS SW had to be exactly where it was on the exact trajectory and amplitude to pull that. Faster and it would have been pulled east over the top by the current suppression and would have helped resist the SE flow ahead of the anomalous closed low. Slower and it doesn’t pull off the phase in time and the upper low gets further East before it turns north. But no it was exactly where and how it needed to be to screw up an otherwise good longwave setup. Oh well. 51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro Look at the mslp plots without the L. There is no defined closed surface circulation. There is no classic surface low. This is all mid and upper level driven. There is a strung out negatively tilted trough of low pressure along the convection associated with the SE flow ahead of the mid and upper low. Where the L shows each panel is just a function of where the lowest pressure by 1mb happens the be along that trough at any given moment likely convection induced. It’s irrelevant whether it’s over Hagerstown or DC or the bay at any given moment. That feature isn’t driving the bus here anyways. 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: The ground is pretty much frozen solid, I wonder what'll happen when we get heavy rain here? Seems like a recipe for a messy flooding muddy mess. Power outages for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. The Euro is on crack. I hope its right but If we get 10 inches with a track like that I will become a Vikings fan. My call for the Shenandoah Valley. WInchester: 3-4 inches with .1-.25 crust on top Woodstock: 4-5 inches same crust Harrisonburg: 5-6 inches with .05-.1 crust Staunton: 6-8 very little crust. Trust me, you do not love snow enough to want to become a Vikings fan. You disappointment Aocer the snow will fade. The disappointment you’ll feel as a Vikings fan lasts a lifetime. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Power outages for sure. My thoughts too, especially if the wind comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But then everything goes wrong in a very rare combination. So in other words if any other the timing was different, slower or faster we would of done better? Was there any way this could have gone worse for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Is that DT? If he were a CEO my wife would fire him with extreme prejudice. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Some of the more enthusiastic people here have mentioned thundersleet or thundersnow. Any chance that happens @psuhoffman or any other person who knows what they are doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Was there any way this could have gone worse for us? Change was to is and the answer is a definite … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This pretty much sums up the storm for those of us east of 95.... 2 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: Is that DT? If he were a CEO my wife would fire him with extreme prejudice. I gotta admit that was pretty funny though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chilland @MillvilleWxdId a great job explaining but I get why many casual observers are confused. This isn’t a typical setup. The physics make sense but to those that just observe and base expectations on typical synoptic progressions this is odd. This was actually a really good longwave setup but a lot of details had to go wrong to get this outcome. First we’re on the backside of a trough in a NW flow and there is confluence over the top right now. That’s why the SW is diving SSE down the Miss valley and digging to to gulf coast. To get that there has to be a NW flow. And so normally there is no way that leads to rain. And I can understand the superficial confusion. But then everything goes wrong in a very rare combination. The upper low is way too amplified and cuts off way too early. That alone would be odd but we could survive that except that for the another very energetic NS SW digs in and phases at exactly the wrong time which manages to turn the whole trough on its axis in a very tight window. We go from being on the backside in a suppressive flow today to a neg tilt trough to our west in 24 hours. That’s special in a bad luck way. That NS SW had to be exactly where it was on the exact trajectory and amplitude to pull that. Faster and it would have been pulled east over the top by the current suppression and would have helped resist the SE flow ahead of the anomalous closed low. Slower and it doesn’t pull off the phase in time and the upper low gets further East before it turns north. But no it was exactly where and how it needed to be to screw up an otherwise good longwave setup. Oh well. Look at the mslp plots without the L. There is no defined closed surface circulation. There is no classic surface low. This is all mid and upper level driven. There is a strung out negatively tilted trough of low pressure along the convection associated with the SE flow ahead of the mid and upper low. Where the L shows each panel is just a function of where the lowest pressure by 1mb happens the be along that trough at any given moment likely convection induced. It’s irrelevant whether it’s over Hagerstown or DC or the bay at any given moment. That feature isn’t driving the bus here anyways. It certainly could have worked if the randomness(luck) would have turned out a little differently. That said, the overall synoptics up top as advertised leading in was just "off" from what I want to see for my location. I know where you are the warts can be overcome more easily, so we often differ on our perspectives of what is favorable for a good outcome. Rapidly retreating cold air mass is a big red flag for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Another detail that went wrong that globals won’t be able to pin down at range was the exact trajectory of the SE flow and associated waa precip. It ended up aimed more to our SW until after we lose the mid levels. More e to w v s to n. That’s a worse angle to maximize the WAA before we lose the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoSailer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 FWIW The long range Hrrrr holds onto hope for the warm nose not being as strong as modeled by the NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, IronTy said: Is that DT? If he were a CEO my wife would fire him with extreme prejudice. I’m scared of your wife. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, KAOS said: This pretty much sums up the storm for those of us east of 95.... 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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