DDweatherman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro We actually would probably do better if there was a primary driving up into Southwest Virginia, as it wouldn’t push the highway out as quickly and would enable the CAD to hang on a bit longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 When’s the last time we were hoping the euro would save us. It’s usually the executioner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: We actually would probably do better if there was a primary driving up into Southwest Virginia, as it wouldn’t push the highway out as quickly and would enable the CAD to hang on a bit longer Was thinking exactly the same thing. Keep that ocean air at bay a little while longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: The aspect of this storm that bothers me the most at least from my perception is how poorly the EPS and GEFS did in the Day 4-5 range which should be their wheelhouse unless I am mistaken. They did fine. Track has been locked in...they just cant sense the detail of mid level warmth that far out I don’t think so Ji. The mean tracks and most low positions were much further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Snowchaser said: 3-4 inches and some light freezing rain on top would be a nice win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 All-model weighted consensus low track is approx RIC to DCA to ABE, rapid deepening. Think it plays out as 3-6 hour heavy snow front end thump followed by sleet and possible large ice pellet with thunder around 09z in metros, wrap around snow quickly follows. Scour out of cold air is not very complete south of York PA due to rapid development and inland penetration of warm nose mostly north of the Delaware, even there surface residency time of milder air very brief. Partial coastal energy transfer 12-15z pushes occlusion rapidly north across LI, s NE. Think it could result in a better snow outcome than the NWS forecast by almost 2:1 ratio, as that early stage will crank and another 1-2" possible from the wraparound. Note that DC is right under the 500 mb low by 12z Monday. Column is implied to be non-vertical, with 700 mb low displaced to west of 500 mb and southwest of surface low. Seen from above the cylinder looks like the letter C with the upper portion closest to the surface. Such a dynamic evolution, bound to be some thundersnow and thundersleet involved. Don't think temps come up as much as some fear, will do so in NJ-ePA more so. Strongest winds probably follow the warm nose and trailing front, may not be that big a factor in DC or even BAL as a result, perhaps strongest by Mon afternoon in downsloping WNW. Think some will be saying "got more snow than expected" by Monday mid-day, although by how much, perhaps not that much, maybe add 1-2" to expectations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 45 minutes ago, mdhokie said: NWS bullish for the mountains, 6-12" through sun night with more on Monday in Garrett. Really bullish. Going all in on 12-18” for Garrett County through Monday night. Lines up well with the latest Euro which is ~18” by Tuesday day break. The WAA could surprise if we can score some good banding and keep the 700-850 levels colder. But I still think bulk of the snow is actually overnight Sunday/Monday into Monday night. Fun few days coming up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Really bullish. Going all in on 12-18” for Garrett County through Monday night. Lines up well with the latest Euro which is ~18” by Tuesday day break. The WAA could surprise if we can score some good banding and keep the 700-850 levels colder. But I still think bulk of the snow is actually overnight Sunday/Monday into Monday night. Fun few days coming up! You should get some great snow drifts out that way. Enjoy ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 In my neck of the woods, climo tells me we wind up with slop and very little on the ground after all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Fearless Weatherman forecast for up here. 12-20". Seems in line with guidance. https://whitegrass.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Fearless-Forecast-Jan-15.txt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 No change for my prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro Yeah. The Euro is on crack. I hope its right but If we get 10 inches with a track like that I will become a Vikings fan. My call for the Shenandoah Valley. WInchester: 3-4 inches with .1-.25 crust on top Woodstock: 4-5 inches same crust Harrisonburg: 5-6 inches with .05-.1 crust Staunton: 6-8 very little crust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 TWC still bullish 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: He’s blaming the NWS for his failure. That is unacceptable, everyone knew his forecast was stupid and to save face he is blaming them. How is he not a loser? David is perhaps the best discusser I know of what it takes for the area to get big snow versus not. Unfortunately, for reasons that elude me, he is much less skilled at accurately predicting what an individual event will do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, wxtrix said: he’s an asshole. Always succinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Final call 2 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, wxtrix said: he’s an asshole. I second this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Final call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it’s easy to lose sight of things. If the storm fails, so be it. For the record I’m not on that train yet. But even if it does, the last few days have been fun. Interaction amongst this crew is awesome. I have laughed more times than I can count. Isn’t that what we are here for. Our thoughts and observations have nothing at all to do with the weather that actually transpires. We do this for fun. Keep that in mind. Thank you for this post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18Z HRRR a little quicker with onset. Gets flakes out here by midday tomorrow. But very light stuff to start out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Final call The ground is pretty much frozen solid, I wonder what'll happen when we get heavy rain here? Seems like a recipe for a messy flooding muddy mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The story of this storm really can be told by looking at the 850 mb height/vort and wind panels. @Bob Chilland @MillvilleWxdId a great job explaining but I get why many casual observers are confused. This isn’t a typical setup. The physics make sense but to those that just observe and base expectations on typical synoptic progressions this is odd. This was actually a really good longwave setup but a lot of details had to go wrong to get this outcome. First we’re on the backside of a trough in a NW flow and there is confluence over the top right now. That’s why the SW is diving SSE down the Miss valley and digging to to gulf coast. To get that there has to be a NW flow. And so normally there is no way that leads to rain. And I can understand the superficial confusion. But then everything goes wrong in a very rare combination. The upper low is way too amplified and cuts off way too early. That alone would be odd but we could survive that except that for the another very energetic NS SW digs in and phases at exactly the wrong time which manages to turn the whole trough on its axis in a very tight window. We go from being on the backside in a suppressive flow today to a neg tilt trough to our west in 24 hours. That’s special in a bad luck way. That NS SW had to be exactly where it was on the exact trajectory and amplitude to pull that. Faster and it would have been pulled east over the top by the current suppression and would have helped resist the SE flow ahead of the anomalous closed low. Slower and it doesn’t pull off the phase in time and the upper low gets further East before it turns north. But no it was exactly where and how it needed to be to screw up an otherwise good longwave setup. Oh well. 51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro just turned a Miller A into a Miller B and back into a Miller A. Takes the low from Charleston to Snowshoe in 6 hours and on to Dulles airport 6 hours later. And increased my now total 3 inches. Go euro Look at the mslp plots without the L. There is no defined closed surface circulation. There is no classic surface low. This is all mid and upper level driven. There is a strung out negatively tilted trough of low pressure along the convection associated with the SE flow ahead of the mid and upper low. Where the L shows each panel is just a function of where the lowest pressure by 1mb happens the be along that trough at any given moment likely convection induced. It’s irrelevant whether it’s over Hagerstown or DC or the bay at any given moment. That feature isn’t driving the bus here anyways. 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, IronTy said: The ground is pretty much frozen solid, I wonder what'll happen when we get heavy rain here? Seems like a recipe for a messy flooding muddy mess. Power outages for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. The Euro is on crack. I hope its right but If we get 10 inches with a track like that I will become a Vikings fan. My call for the Shenandoah Valley. WInchester: 3-4 inches with .1-.25 crust on top Woodstock: 4-5 inches same crust Harrisonburg: 5-6 inches with .05-.1 crust Staunton: 6-8 very little crust. Trust me, you do not love snow enough to want to become a Vikings fan. You disappointment Aocer the snow will fade. The disappointment you’ll feel as a Vikings fan lasts a lifetime. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Power outages for sure. My thoughts too, especially if the wind comes to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But then everything goes wrong in a very rare combination. So in other words if any other the timing was different, slower or faster we would of done better? Was there any way this could have gone worse for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Is that DT? If he were a CEO my wife would fire him with extreme prejudice. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Some of the more enthusiastic people here have mentioned thundersleet or thundersnow. Any chance that happens @psuhoffman or any other person who knows what they are doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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