WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Y’all see the NAM moving toward the other models, right? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 WB 12Z 3K NAM: not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 3K NAM: not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well. I guess we are tracking wind now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, nj2va said: Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground. It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up. Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there. I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis. I'll be staying in Garrett county Sunday through Tuesday, but I'm thinking I will head to Timberline on Monday. It's a bit of a drive but it looks way too good to resist. And this time it looks like just about the entire mountain will be open. An amazing opportunity coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 3K NAM: not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well. Yikes on that ice and wind. Along the BR Loudoun and North is gonna see power outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That’s the fun part about this. You never know what will happen until it happens. I could see a quick 4-5" here in Bel Air, 5-6" NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Yikes on that ice and wind. Along the BR Loudoun and North is gonna see power outages It’s easy to understate that this will be an epic ice storm in some areas that’s going to cause massive power outages and disruptions. I’d rather take the rain and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 45 minutes ago, snowfan said: @nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep. My weenie is still asleep after seeing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 53 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's not common to have all 3 on top of each other like this. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble. This all goes back to the "sandwich" dynamics which you explained last year. Hopefully some on the board can remember this for the future. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What is the criteria for an ice storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That low jump is just a digital thing from what I can tell. Model graphic output is programmed to stamp an L at the lowest pressure but the lowest pressure is fluid so the L jumps around inside the "bag of low pressure". I like using the shaded mslp anomaly maps to just compare the bigger bag (general center) and not the L (specific center). I could be wrong here so someone correct me if so I always find it odd that people live and die based on where contours are closed and letters are drawn, especially if run to run they move +/- 25 miles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: What is the criteria for an ice storm warning? 1/4" or more. Could be 1/2" in some states/location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: What is the criteria for an ice storm warning? Some of these criteria vary from region to region, but here is what LWX has on their site. Looks like .25 inches of ice. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#:~:text=A Winter Storm Warning is,weather is occurring or imminent.&text=2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.,-AND%2FOR&text=AND%2FOR-,3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and,or ice accumulation with wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: What is the criteria for an ice storm warning? I’ve never experienced a wind driven ice storm here in the piedmont. Feel like if the wind was right it would be snow and the wrong wind direction like this appears so far is rain. But you never know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Ruin said: and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east I said days ago it would end up either an apps runner/cutter or it would jump to the coast. For snow lovers on the coastal plain, we rolled snake eyes. It “jumped” the wrong way. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’ve never experienced a wind driven ice storm here in the piedmont. Feel like if the wind was right it would be snow and the wrong wind direction like this appears so far is rain. But you never know Yes. Wind would mix the surface inversion, scouring out the low level cold . I don't buy any depiction showing a windy freezing rain scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Anecdotal analysis... 15z backyard model run: Squirrels are out in force this morning, digging all over the place, despite it being 25 degrees. Much more active than over the past week. Perhaps they know something... 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes. Wind would mix the surface inversion, scouring out the low level cold . I don't buy any depiction showing a windy freezing rain scenario. Hazards aside and impacts..it would be cool to see a wind driven ice storm. ..until it was time to clean up from it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Thinking 4-8” up in Garret Co with the upslope and probably 8-12” in Davis? We were looking in that area but way more in terms of options for the kids in McHenry/Swanton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes. Wind would mix the surface inversion, scouring out the low level cold . I don't buy any depiction showing a windy freezing rain scenario. I’m not sure that’s quite what is depicted. The wind doesn’t really pick up on the NAM until after the rain transition on the model. That ZR is almost entirely before the big rain mass reaches us. If you look at the 850 winds at 0z Monday on the 12z NAM, the mass of wind has just reached DC and already the ZR has pulled north of DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’m just (unwisely) hugging the HRRR. Shows a very equitable 3-5” across the region with some banding winners before a little sleet and a little rain. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The story of this storm really can be told by looking at the 850 mb height/vort and wind panels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m just (unwisely) hugging the HRRR. Shows a very equitable 3-5” across the region with some banding winners before a little sleet and a little rain. That’s the most uniform snow map for such a large area in the history of snow maps 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: The story of this storm really can be told by looking at the 850 mb height/vort and wind panels. Or better yet, by viewing this movie: 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’m just (unwisely) hugging the HRRR. Shows a very equitable 3-5” across the region with some banding winners before a little sleet and a little rain. Would be a major win for everyone if this happened verbatim. But it the HRRR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'm just going to enjoy whatever we get. There's going to be snow in the air during daylight. Window is still open for a surprise or two. Now that we know what our fate is, time to just get past it, have fun with whatever we get and then forget this one and move to our next threat. 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Icon slightly better. A little heavier rates it seems from the WWA. Just gotta hope that juices up a bit over the next few runs to maximize the thump while we still have mids. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 That’s the most uniform snow map for such a large area in the history of snow mapsIn a way, it makes sense that we all share the same dynamic WAA thump before changing over. It seems unlikely the changeover will move northward in a straight, buzzkilling line, but that map kinda makes sense. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I'm just going to enjoy whatever we get. There's going to be snow in the air during daylight. Window is still open for a surprise or two. Now that we know what our fate is, time to just get past it, have fun with whatever we get and then forget this one and move to our next threat. A smart person would not check this forum or the models until Monday. That’s not me 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm just going to enjoy whatever we get. There's going to be snow in the air during daylight. Window is still open for a surprise or two. Now that we know what our fate is, time to just get past it, have fun with whatever we get and then forget this one and move to our next threat. Hear hear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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