MLK 2022 Storm Potential

[TSSN+]

12z hrrr still showing 5-7hrs of snow across the area. Going to die on that hill and hope it’s right. 

[Bob Chill]

44 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Thank you this is all I was asking it just feels strange.

It does in comparison to other closed lows approaching from the south with cold around. But there's a fundamental difference here... the storm has basically fully matured well south of our latitude. We can get smoked during the maturation process and then get a second serving with the upper level low but the process of getting there is not what we're seeing at all. 

Because the storm is stacked without any kind of cold feed,, it's a literal warm air vacuum and circulator near the stacked low center. When these types of events develop further north, the stacking process usually happens offshore and to our NE. Then SNE gets literally blizzardeded after we already got a big event. From a good snowstorm comparison, this particular storm is really really screwed up compared to others and the idea was clear as day nearly 4 days ago. Dems the breaks man. Stuff happens. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Dude, there is a 97 percent chance that it’s over. Accept it, enjoy the couple hours of snow you get.

But the models haven't  yet ingested the effects of the Tongan volcano eruption!

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

But the models haven't  yet ingested the effects of the Tongan volcano eruption!

I did say 97 not 100

[dsnowman]

Though not the big snowstorm we all wanted, it’s still possibly a HIGH impact event. It looks like we are in for the snow to ice solution noted yesterday for those of us west of I-95. Though there is raging warm air aloft, the CAD signal is very strong. So not the wash out many have feared. Not surprisingly, the NWS has updated the forecast this morning (I’m western Fairfax County) calling for up to .30 of ice on top of several inches of snow. It’s gonna be a great battle between the surface and upper levels!

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east

This is not an apps runner

[Warm Nose]

All of the denial and wishcasting that seems to be left in this thread aside, I will say this is a fascinating track and evolution. 

[Round Hill WX]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

But the models haven't  yet ingested the effects of the Tongan volcano eruption!

Unfortunately it was an under water eruption. So ocean temps will be warmer which means we mix and go to all rain. 

[Bob Chill]

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's uncommon to have all 3 on top of each other like this south of us. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Was the 6z euro that bad? Didn’t see it posted.

[Baltimorewx]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east

Negatively tilted trough, closed low, it’s going to tug it west. There’s nothing unusual about this in my opinion, it’s happened before. The phase/capture needs to happen later for it to track off the coast 

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Was the 6z euro that bad? Didn’t see it posted.

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

[SnowCane]

Regardless of how much snow we get, it’s going to be a nice stormy evening to cook gumbo, watch the playoffs and enjoy the wind drive precip bouncing around outside. Cheers to the weekend y’all. Since I’ve moved from Alabama to Gaithersburg in 2019, we haven’t had more than 5 inches from one storm here. Maybe that’ll end before the winter’s over! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

That’s 0z

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Was the 6z euro that bad? Didn’t see it posted.

Dr. No Clue still thinks you're getting 8 inches and me 11.  

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s 0z

In that case…..

 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

Nah that was the 6z GFS, didn’t see the euro run. 

[astarck]

This thread reads like a group therapy session.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Well, it's 17 degrees outside. 12z NAM really wants to gravitate toward the coastline. will be a fun storm to nowcast. I think we can get 3-4 hours of really heavy snow. 

[mappy]

Just enjoy the front end snow y’all. Snow is snow regardless of amounts. 

[nw baltimore wx]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's not common to have all 3 on top of each other like this. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

I think that helps explain the jumping of the L on the models. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the area of low pressure is broad in this case, so from one panel to the next on the model runs it looks like the L is doing errands in the neighborhood. 

[jonjon]

7 hours ago, nj2va said:

Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower.  It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD.

It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope.  Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios.  Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude.  

 

Yes, I believe some out here may be disappointed as to how much we have on the ground Monday morning (I wouldn't be shocked to have a change or mix with sleet for a while Sunday night), only to watch the snow pile up on the backside upslope between Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

[StormyClearweather]

3k NAM is a bit slower with the changeover than the 12km. HRRR (yeah, I know) is slower still, so... fingers crossed?

[EastCoast NPZ]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's not common to have all 3 on top of each other like this. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

I don't recall, but have any of our big snowstorms became stacked south of us?

We all know the perfect track of the SLP, but what is the optimum track of the 700 and 500 lows?

Where do we want the capture to occur?

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Well, it's 17 degrees outside. 12z NAM really wants to gravitate toward the coastline. will be a fun storm to nowcast. I think we can get 3-4 hours of really heavy snow. 

That’s the fun part about this.  You never know what will happen until it happens.

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Yes, I believe some out here may be disappointed as to how much we have on the ground Monday morning (I wouldn't be shocked to have a change or mix with sleet for a while Sunday night), only to watch the snow pile up on the backside upslope between Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground.  It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up.

Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there.  I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis.

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, snowfan said:

In that case…..

 

You missed the rest of Virginia.  

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think that helps explain the jumping of the L on the models. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the area of low pressure is broad in this case, so from one panel to the next on the model runs it looks like the L is doing errands in the neighborhood. 

That low jump is just a digital thing from what I can tell. Model graphic output is programmed to stamp an L at the lowest pressure but the lowest pressure is fluid so the L jumps around inside the "bag of low pressure". I like using the shaded mslp anomaly maps to just compare the bigger bag (general center) and not the L (specific center). I could be wrong here so someone correct me if so

[jonjon]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground.  It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up.

Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there.  I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis.

Its actually a pretty exciting storm considering its rare track.  Its possible for an upside surprise with the first part of the storm if we can stay all snow and stay under heavier returns for a while.  But the bread-n-butter upslope snow will definitely salvage whatever precedes it.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Its actually a pretty exciting storm considering its rare track.  Its possible for an upside surprise with the first part of the storm if we can stay all snow and stay under heavier returns for a while.  But the bread-n-butter upslope snow will definitely salvage whatever precedes it.

Being in Garrett co for this one too, the models are loving the upslope even on globals for Wisp down thru your neck of the woods. Those 45mph gusts and a passing potent s/w won’t hurt enhancement.