Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 WJZ labeled this as a "Nor'Easter"...isn't that a bit inaccurate? Or does it technically fit that definition despite...what we'll be seeing, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS is a 3-5 hour snow event for DC proper...maybe 2-3". We probably mix around 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 36 minutes ago, Fozz said: Does the NAM know something that the rest of the models are missing? Will they score the coup? probably not...it'll probably come southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: GFS is a 3-5 hour snow event for DC proper...maybe 2-3". We probably mix around 6pm. If we hadn’t been chasing this for a week most would be happy. Also does show a signal for some wraparound snow on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 40 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Our Icon, which art in the supercoumpter, Hallowed be thy Name. Thy snow come. Thy will be done in reality, As it is in deterministic modeling. Give us this day our daily snow. And forgive us our trespasses, As we forgive those models that trespass against us. And lead us not into rain, But deliver us from the NAM. For thine is the snow, The powder, and the glory, For ever and ever. Amen. Classic sig material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This storm may exit at the VA/NC border when all is said and done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: If we hadn’t been chasing this for a week most would be happy. Also does show a signal for some wraparound snow on this run yeah...the scope and scale of this event didn't lend itself to playing it cool. The 3-5" event that kind of pops up last minute hits a bit better. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Hot off the press! 2nd call I actually am a rocket scientist and I don't have a focking clue what that says. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Lol. Hard to fathom the nam is correct over every other model out there including the Euro. That would be quite the outcome for the entire East coast. This run of the NAM is overdone. The reality is somewhere in the middle. Take this run straight from hades and the best run from 48 hrs ago, average it out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Surprised LWX is sticking with these totals. Wonder though if they may come off these in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLynnWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jebman said: This run of the NAM is overdone. The reality is somewhere in the middle. Take this run straight from hades and the best run from 48 hrs ago, average it out. As long as I can get my own personal Jebwalk. It’s been too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Surprised LWX is sticking with these totals. Wonder though if they may come off these in the morning. They don’t run away from one NAM run. They run toward the NAM and face it down. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Kind of amazing how much weight is being given to the NAM in here. It seems overdone but shrug — at least we only have 36 more hours to find out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Surprised LWX is sticking with these totals. Wonder though if they may come off these in the morning. Other than the nam that's what the models are putting out now in general. Sure the models could continue to diminish our snow totals and that wouldn't shock me but it's not crazy to think dc gets 2" snow if they get WAA for 3 or 4 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If you're gonna take the NAM seriously, at least use the 3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 We’re just having fun. Regardless of the NAM this has changed quite a bit. Look at where the axis of heaviest snow was on the Gfs 24 hours ago and now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Rgem gave me 6-7 hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Hot off the press! 2nd call And that’s a legendary “AmericanWX Hall of Fame” post right there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 hours ago, stormtracker said: Hot off the press! 2nd call When is the 3rd and a half dollar call coming? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The NAM really turned this place into a ghost town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower. It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD. It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope. Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios. Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Does any one really buy any thing these models are saying? I mean they do most likely have some trends that will happen but at this point the storm is going to the midwest with how far north west it keeps going. I heard to mets say I never seen a Low travel this route after dipping to the gulf and then just keeps wanting to go farther and farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 30 minutes ago, nj2va said: Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower. It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD. It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope. Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios. Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude. You'll still do well with the upslope. Canaan will do even better as it always does in these situations. Could be really big numbers there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The sub must have gotten severely NAMMED. Thats why there is hardly anyone on here. Maybe its wrong, could be an outlier folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DraydenWX Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Smells like burnt ‘s in here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower. It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD. It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope. Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios. Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude. You up at Mchenry in this? You'll get demolished! Get ready for some serious, serious snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If you wanted to lodge a complaint with NAM, I understand this gentleman is Director of Public Relations ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 WB 6Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 06z GFS looks like an improvement especially compared to 06z NAM but also to 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Are these models being fed bad info? something that isnt sampled etc? 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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