MLK 2022 Storm Potential

[mattskiva]

30 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower.  It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD.

It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope.  Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios.  Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude.  

 

You'll still do well with the upslope. Canaan will do even better as it always does in these situations. Could be really big numbers there.

 

[Jebman]

The sub must have gotten severely NAMMED. Thats why there is hardly anyone on here. Maybe its wrong, could be an outlier folks.

[DraydenWX]

Smells like burnt ‘s in here

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower.  It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD.

It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope.  Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios.  Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude.  

 

You up at Mchenry in this? You'll get demolished! Get ready for some serious, serious snow!

[Roger Smith]

If you wanted to lodge a complaint with NAM, I understand this gentleman is Director of Public Relations ...

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS

[Roger Smith]

06z GFS looks like an improvement especially compared to 06z NAM but also to 00z GFS. 

[Ruin]

Are these models being fed bad info? something that isnt sampled etc?

[CAPE]

36 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Are these models being fed bad info? something that isnt sampled etc?

You should be weenie tagged.

The models have been consistent with the idea of a closed h5 low tracking inland. The 850 low tracks west of DC into central PA, and the LL jet out of the E/SE is screaming.  Go ahead and melt because the ground truth in your yard won't match your unrealistic expectations, but the guidance is sound.

[Ruin]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You should be weenie tagged.

The models have been consistent with the idea of a closed h5 low tracking inland. The 850 low tracks west of DC into central PA, and the LL jet out of the E/SE is screaming.  Go ahead and melt because the ground truth in your yard won't match your unrealistic expectations, but the guidance is sound.

I was just asking a question? I heard on air mets say they never or its rare to see a storm jump so far to the west after showing out to sea off the south east coast. 2 its a very odd track to keep pushing more and more west one of the models has it in eastern VA then out of no where pushes it into western va then into southern PA

[WinterWxLuvr]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You should be weenie tagged.

The models have been consistent with the idea of a closed h5 low tracking inland. The 850 low tracks west of DC into central PA, and the LL jet out of the E/SE is screaming.  Go ahead and melt because the ground truth in your yard won't match your unrealistic expectations, but the guidance is sound.

I have never seen models this consistent. They’re each a little different, but in comparison to their own runs they are like carbon copies. 
My only hesitation in accepting them as are is for the very reason that I just stated. I’ve never seen this. I would expect changes simply because that typically happens. Might even be the “more north, more west”. That would take almost all of us out.

[CAPE]

Just now, Ruin said:

I was just asking a question? I heard on air mets say they never or its rare to see a storm jump so far to the west after showing out to sea off the south east coast. 2 its a very odd track to keep pushing more and more west one of the models has it in eastern VA then out of no where pushes it into western va then into southern PA

Your previous post is even worse. The synoptics support the inland track. It is a stacked low and the advertised track has been consistently inland. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I have never seen models this consistent. They’re each a little different, but in comparison to their own runs they are like carbon copies. 
My only hesitation in accepting them as are is for the very reason that I just stated. I’ve never seen this. I would expect changes simply because that typically happens. Might even be the “more north, more west”. That would take almost all of us out.

Read my post in banter. I haven't said much lately but I never liked the overall setup for the lowlands, and ever since the GFS sniffed out the phasing idea and the other models quickly followed, I was out. Your area could still do ok but the problem with getting more/mostly snow is that nasty LL jet, and the mesos have it a bit stronger- thus the p-type issues even further north and west.

[Ruin]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Your previous post is even worse. The synoptics support the inland track. It is a stacked low and the advertised track has been consistently inland. 

Now yes but they did have a few runs off the coast riding up the coast then they started going inland. To say the models have always been inland is inaccurate. Im not disputing they are inland now. I am simply talking to the fact that long time mets are calling this odd. Im simply getting at its a now casting event. good night and good luck hope we dont get to much ice.

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Now yes but they did have a few runs off the coast riding up the coast then they started going inland. To say the models have always been inland is inaccurate. Im not disputing they are inland now. I am simply talking to the fact that long time mets are calling this odd. Im simply getting at its a now casting event. good night and good luck hope we dont get to much ice.

Always is relative. If you go back to Monday night runs, the GFS for example had no storm.

Once it got the storm it’s been crazy consistent. Here is the Tuesday night run …

And here is the run from this morning ..

Thats what you call crazy consistent. It may be an unusual track. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

[Ruin]

and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east

[aldie 22]

Man that mountain torque must have triggered a latex heat release or something...can we get a quick volcanic eruption before Sunday to keep the cold locked in? Paging HM paging HM!

[TSSN+]

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Ruin said:

and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east

The ocean storm has something to do with it. The models changed in a quick second once that storm trended faster to get out and further east from the coast line.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

I was just asking a question? I heard on air mets say they never or its rare to see a storm jump so far to the west after showing out to sea off the south east coast. 2 its a very odd track to keep pushing more and more west one of the models has it in eastern VA then out of no where pushes it into western va then into southern PA

This is a weird track which alot of people are perplexed because of the amount of cold air before the storm arrives. The upper level low digs in the back of the storm which causes a tug movement.

[Ruin]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is a weird track which alot of people are perplexed because of the amount of cold air before the storm arrives. The upper level low digs in the back of the storm which causes a tug movement.

Thank you this is all I was asking it just feels strange.

[LeesburgWx]

Rocking 23 degrees and the radar is looking good! 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Rocking 23 degrees and the radar is looking good! 

Feeling good about this one. 

[MillvilleWx]

I want to make sure anyone interested in meteorology and wants to follow along with storms now and of the future; the upper level evolution is the driver the atmosphere. What happens up top will reflect what happens below it. Once you understand the dynamics of the levels 700mb and up, you can be a better forecaster. Cold and warm air will always have the ability to be washed out by an evolving surface and low-mid level pattern. This storm is no different. 

Sampling is a smaller issue at range than it ever has been due to GOES 16/17 and the countless reconnaissance we have delivered over the course of the past 10-15 years. Yes, some minor shifts that could play major components to a pattern evo can occur when a specific feature is sampled over land, but the discourse of, "Changing to tunes of 100s of miles" is ancient history. Overall, this has been a pretty well documented storm with minor adjustments here and there, but in a setup where every 10 miles counts and timing is everything, they are magnified. 

I didn't post last night for two reasons:

1) I was tired and my wife was finally off. I wanted to spend some time with her and we watched some of our favorite shows. It was a wonderful evening.

2) I wanted to see if models held serve on what the hi-res guidance has been insinuating recently, and it looks like they are. This will lead to a forecast shift myself, which I'll have today. 

For those interested in meteorology, I will preface by saying this will be a sight to watch unfold. Result you are looking for may be damned, but take it from someone only getting more wind and absolutely no precip from 2000 miles away; enjoy the meteorology and learn, or I would find something to do on Sunday evening that will take your mind off it all. Ice will be coming, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Pattern is still loaded in the long range. We are okay for now. 

Enjoy your Saturday!! Life is too short to worry about what Mother Nature is gonna do.

"We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether we like it or not!" 

[Ruin]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to make sure anyone interested in meteorology and wants to follow along with storms now and of the future; the upper level evolution is the driver the atmosphere. What happens up top will reflect what happens below it. Once you understand the dynamics of the levels 700mb and up, you can be a better forecaster. Cold and warm air will always have the ability to be washed out by an evolving surface and low-mid level pattern. This storm is no different. 

Sampling is a smaller issue at range than it ever has been due to GOES 16/17 and the countless reconnaissance we have delivered over the course of the past 10-15 years. Yes, some minor shifts that could play major components to a pattern evo can occur when a specific feature is sampled over land, but the discourse of, "Changing to tunes of 100s of miles" is ancient history. Overall, this has been a pretty well documented storm with minor adjustments here and there, but in a setup where every 10 miles counts and timing is everything, they are magnified. 

I didn't post last night for two reasons:

1) I was tired and my wife was finally off. I wanted to spend some time with her and we watched some of our favorite shows. It was a wonderful evening.

2) I wanted to see if models held serve on what the hi-res guidance has been insinuating recently, and it looks like they are. This will lead to a forecast shift myself, which I'll have today. 

For those interested in meteorology, I will preface by saying this will be a sight to watch unfold. Result you are looking for may be damned, but take it from someone only getting more wind and absolutely no precip from 2000 miles away; enjoy the meteorology and learn, or I would find something to do on Sunday evening that will take your mind off it all. Ice will be coming, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Pattern is still loaded in the long range. We are okay for now. 

Enjoy your Saturday!! Life is too short to worry about what Mother Nature is gonna do.

"We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether we like it or not!" 

i agree I feel this will be a now cast event. To much going on with the cold air with all the highs bouncing around and dynamic weather pattern and the Low hasnt even really started to decided where it wants to go.

[SnowenOutThere]

If anything this storm is another big win for the GFS this year. Was the first to sniff out the inland track. Really this is a huge win for pretty much every global if it goes down how it looks like it will, they were consistent since Wednesday. Honestly it’s really amazing how well they have done.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

i agree I feel this will be a now cast event. To much going on with the cold air with all the highs bouncing around and dynamic weather pattern and the Low hasnt even really started to decided where it wants to go.

Dude, there is a 97 percent chance that it’s over. Accept it, enjoy the couple hours of snow you get.

[WxMan1]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I want to make sure anyone interested in meteorology and wants to follow along with storms now and of the future; the upper level evolution is the driver the atmosphere. What happens up top will reflect what happens below it. Once you understand the dynamics of the levels 700mb and up, you can be a better forecaster. Cold and warm air will always have the ability to be washed out by an evolving surface and low-mid level pattern. This storm is no different. 

Sampling is a smaller issue at range than it ever has been due to GOES 16/17 and the countless reconnaissance we have delivered over the course of the past 10-15 years. Yes, some minor shifts that could play major components to a pattern evo can occur when a specific feature is sampled over land, but the discourse of, "Changing to tunes of 100s of miles" is ancient history. Overall, this has been a pretty well documented storm with minor adjustments here and there, but in a setup where every 10 miles counts and timing is everything, they are magnified. 

I didn't post last night for two reasons:

1) I was tired and my wife was finally off. I wanted to spend some time with her and we watched some of our favorite shows. It was a wonderful evening.

2) I wanted to see if models held serve on what the hi-res guidance has been insinuating recently, and it looks like they are. This will lead to a forecast shift myself, which I'll have today. 

For those interested in meteorology, I will preface by saying this will be a sight to watch unfold. Result you are looking for may be damned, but take it from someone only getting more wind and absolutely no precip from 2000 miles away; enjoy the meteorology and learn, or I would find something to do on Sunday evening that will take your mind off it all. Ice will be coming, and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Pattern is still loaded in the long range. We are okay for now. 

Enjoy your Saturday!! Life is too short to worry about what Mother Nature is gonna do.

"We'll weather the weather, whatever the weather, whether we like it or not!" 

Absolutely spot on! While not the result we all want, it's such an anomalous track, which in of itself it pretty cool. 

My neighbors now have discovered a new way of figuring out whether or not we're going to get a big winter storm. Since the pandemic, we've had the capability of working forecast ops from home. It's a great option too when the roads are awful. So my neighbors wait to see if I'm going to work (College Park). If the meteorologist leaves his house to go to work, they know we're not getting much. I told them all yesterday I'll be driving to work, lol. 

[Kevin Reilly]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The ocean storm has something to do with it. The models changed in a quick second once that storm trended faster to get out and further east from the coast line.

Not enough blocking to our northeast. 

[WesternFringe]

Hoping for some late bumps east to the projected track of the low today to make this event better for everyone in the sub.

Still looking like a nice storm out here imby NW of Staunton.  Latest Euro drops 14”.  GFS was 10-12”.  NAMs do give me some pause, and I expect to mix some towards the evening, but even the last 3k I looked at had 5-6” of snow before ice afterwards.

I hope this storm overperforms and everyone in here is pleasantly surprised!  And thanks for all of the analysis and laughs along the way.  This has been a helluva roller coaster thread, and fun to be a very small part of it.