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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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On 1/13/2022 at 4:29 PM, Snowfan96 said:

Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised.

The trends among nearly all of the guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 corridor and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well.

 

 

Nearly all of the guidance has now come in line with this thinking (posted yesterday afternoon)...so it looks like this "Grinch" will be correct.

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Recent obs, the low center was southeast of Wichita Falls TX and the closest place with snow was Des Moines IA. There are strong northerly winds blowing into the TX panhandle from CO and w KS but that air is the old stale chinook being pulled out of MT and AB. 

By this time tomorrow the separation of low center and arctic wave will be about one-fifth as large as it is now. This is going to be an interesting storm to track into the southeast US, whatever it actually ends up doing. 

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2 hours ago, IronTy said:

I'm only a weenie and not a guru but man 100 pages in and this is what we get does make me feel better that predicting the weather is tough for anybody. 

 

 

gfs-deterministic-md-instant_ptype-2399200.png

Weather forecasting definitely is tough. The "wishcasters" and "hypecasters" make it look a lot tougher than it should be sometimes though. This storm is a perfect example. The models got a grip on this storm around Tuesday/Wednesday and really haven't changed course much at all. It's been plastered in front of us for several days, yet people have been clinging to the hope that favorable shifts would occur. 

 By no means am I saying that's a bad thing. Things can always change, especially with the weather. The point is, one could've made a general "forecast" based on what the data was spitting out all the way back on Wednesday, and although not all details would be pinned down, you could've given a fairly accurate overview on what was coming. Getting twisted up between what looks like a realistic outcome and what you personally want can make any forecaster look bad. Good Meteorologists keep those two things seperate for the most part. 

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Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Done in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not

87D9A414-03AC-4851-9AA7-FD9EDC045309.jpeg

Did you see his start time map?

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9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not

87D9A414-03AC-4851-9AA7-FD9EDC045309.jpeg

Nothings on top of each other in your screenshot?  The purple shows that there will also be icing in these areas.  But on that note, no idea how that much snow drops if they’re also get ice as well

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5 minutes ago, Sernest14 said:

Nothings on top of each other in your screenshot?  The purple shows that there will also be icing in these areas.  But on that note, no idea how that much snow drops if they’re also get ice as well

Dude….there’s little separation between the zones was the point I was making. I also agree with your point concerning the ice

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23 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not

87D9A414-03AC-4851-9AA7-FD9EDC045309.jpeg

10-11" zone  lol  was that needed?

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