IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Yeah, the 18z NAM is in the GOM. It does have a NW bias. Pretty far in the gulf, a slight shift could make a big difference. Has Cuba hoisted any WSW yet? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I know it’s January and this is the 850 anomaly, but it pretty much tells the story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Will the couple piles of snow I have left in town help keep the temps down? Lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'm only a weenie and not a guru but man 100 pages in and this is what we get does make me feel better that predicting the weather is tough for anybody. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS slowly figuring out 85kt southeast winds at 850mb aren't good for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I wonder how many analogues there would have been for a storm evolution similar to this. Also before throwing a sheet over this, let's not forget the storm hasn't actually happened yet. What if the models are just as wrong about this as they were in that early March setup a few years ago. In that case the storm ended up missing wide right if I recall, what's to say this doesn't miss wide right and you're back in a good place? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said: I know it’s January and this is the 850 anomaly, but it pretty much tells the story. decent match 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Welp the models told us not to pitch a tent, but we still did. Least we know gfs is dialed in for the next one that misses us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Binghamton snow bus now boarding on platform five. We should drive 5 hours so we can get 2” of snow and ice changing to rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs is ugly. I’m hugging the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: I wonder how many analogues there would have been for a storm evolution similar to this. Also before throwing a sheet over this, let's not forget the storm hasn't actually happened yet. What if the models are just as wrong about this as they were in that early March setup a few years ago. In that case the storm ended up missing wide right if I recall, what's to say this doesn't miss wide right and you're back in a good place? What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jebman said: What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum! Gotta set reasonable goals Jeb. Just hope Winchester gets 20” for example 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The main event is turning into either wind gusts or the chance at a car topper from the backlash snows showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The cycle of optimism-pessimism is actually trending in a good way, next peak of optimism should be late Saturday. At that range the models can't miss. Pros seem a bit suspicious that these model shifts are bogus, not sensing their enthusiasm at this stage. How many cold 500 mb lows form in this particular way? And the offset of the circulation to snow development at present will be replaced overnight by something more normal looking. I wonder if the injection of cold air into the circulation will change the model output, because right now that low in Texas is surrounded by mild air masses, the arctic front is almost a thousand miles northeast of the low. By late Saturday it's making more direct contact in AR-MS. And there's the contact with the Gulf to consider. There are ways these forecasts could bust on the warm side. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Jebman said: What I wouldnt give to wake up on Monday morning, crack open the Mid Atlantic sub and find very happy snow weenies flying happily all over! The storm missed wide right and DC gets 20 inches of pow, as well as much of the forum! That’s always my hope with these storms. It’s happened before! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poodleusier Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Did someone say it's over? It's not over until we say.... Oh, nevermind. It's over... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, 87storms said: different setup, but 94 had a pretty epic bust of a snowstorm that ended up being several inches of pure sleet (which actually looked like snow tbh). very brief snow to start and that was it. i haven't looked at the surface maps, but the track was just too far inland here. i do agree that you'd think with an arctic airmass the day before that we'd do a little better on the front end. yea, that feb 94 storm and 2007 Val day were the biggest sleet storms I can remember. Don’t think this one will rate. Me, I”m a bit over halfway to climo and peak snow season isn’t even here yet. So if this is a bust, I won’t stew in my slush juices. And after seeing the GoFundMeS, I think “slush” may be pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I will be there also...I only expect several inches of snow/ice from the front side of this storm...but they will clean up on the backside once the winds flip to the NW. That's perfect upslope flow and it's the kind of snow they get very high ratios, 20-1. I could see them getting 8" from that late Sunday night through Monday morning. Always appreciate your knowledge and posts! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 We are in Costa Rica the past week on vacation. Regardless of the outcome of this storm, the fact that we planned this trip 6 months ago and we are under a winter storm watch and fly home tomorrow for a Sunday storm is absolutely PERFECT timing which never happens for me. I usually miss the storm while away. Thanks for the great commentary as I randomly checked on it this week laying on a pool chair watching monkeys play in the trees. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I’m still going to get lit for the games and I’ll make my chili and smoke enough to look out window for something that may not be there 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I was originally planning on going to Massanutten near Harrisonburg to ski on Sunday (6-10) was looking likely there until now.... Now I'm contemplating going to the Homestead in Bath county instead. Bath county looks like maybe one of the few places in Virginia to see a "mostly clean" snowstorm? Thoughts? Thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Skiing resort itself is meh, I recommend the spring fed pool and hot tub while it’s snowing. They will likely be a jackpot in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 There's still one rather insignificant model that hasn't caved yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, GATECH said: Skiing resort itself is meh, I recommend the spring fed pool and hot tub while it’s snowing. They will likely be a jackpot in Va. Beautiful area for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 hours ago, IronTy said: It is supposed to be a quick storm... You only drink when it snows? enjoy the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, GATECH said: Skiing resort itself is meh, I recommend the spring fed pool and hot tub while it’s snowing. They will likely be a jackpot in Va. The nearby wineries are great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 snow flurries in deep creek, maybe thats a good sign 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: There's still one rather insignificant model that hasn't caved yet Give it time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 DT refuses to cave….LOL, guess he didn’t see the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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