Warm Nose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 LWX discussion: As we head into Sunday morning, clouds will rapidly return as the low over the south starts to turn the corner and head northward toward us. This will limit insolation, keeping it cold to start. By late morning, snow will then begin overspreading the region as the low strengthens and heads northward toward us. Unlike the last two widespread winter storms, which were dominated by frotogenesis (January 3rd) or upper-dynamics (January 7th), this one will be dominated by intense warm advection. It will be accompanied by a strong easterly fetch as the high shifts eastward off the coast to our north. Thus, the effect of the cold air mass which will be in place to start will be less enduring as the intense warm flow eats away at the cold. That said, this will also enhance precipitation, resulting in most areas seeing at least a brief period of moderate to heavy snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain and, for some, plain rain. Guidance continues to shift around a bit, but latest trends have mostly been westward. This has resulted in a shiftward west of the heaviest snow and best icing potential, with more potential for a change to rain over areas near and east of I-95. It also intensifies the wind threat a bit near the shore, with close to advisory winds now expected. Watches were converted to warnings and advisories based on our latest expectations on accumulations and timing. That all having been said, its still nearly 24 hours before the storm arrives for most, so some additional shifting around is possible. Precipitation will wind down from south to north late Sunday night as the storm pulls away. The exception will be along the Allegheny Front, where snow will continue much of the day Monday before tapering off at night. The storm`s departure will also herald a moderation of the air mass, as a more Pacific- origin high overspreads the area. This will allow temps to rise into the 40s Monday, with *only* 20s for lows at night. However, this will be accompanied by a very strong west wind, potentially wind advisory levels, with gusts to 50 mph possible across much of the area. These winds should dwindle by sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have to separate DT personally and professionally. Personality doesn’t change that he’s knowledgeable. Before I found this forum in 2015, I used to follow him and watch all his videos. They were really informative for amateur snow lovers like me. However, he was pretty obnoxious at that point and he had a hard time admitting when he was wrong. It’s weather. No one gets this right all the time. However, I think he’s really gone off the deep end over the past few years and his forecasts are pretty far off. Even for the past couple of storms that seemed fairly easygoing get in range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You have to separate DT personally and professionally. Personality doesn’t change that he’s knowledgeable. Well I mean last night his map was so laughable when even at the time of releasing, just about all model date strongly disagreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DT's last call map. He is heading to an epic bust IMO. Imagine cutting amounts by over half for MB compared to yesterday after the models didn't change that much today. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’d take it. Hard pass. Half inch ice is devastating to infrastructure and no fun for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DT's last call map. He is heading to an epic bust IMO. He is gonna bust big time on the west side of the storm. He’s got Erie in 3-6”, but the models say 15” (NAM)- 32” (Euro), lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 25/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DT's last call map. He is heading to an epic bust IMO. He must not know about the NAM and it’s prowess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I think I found a more confusing map to read than DT’s: 1 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Liking where Charlottesville is for this storm. I think the WAA might overperform here then we dryslot 30/4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Down to 23. Jesus what this could have been…but I digress. Good luck to all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I’ll go with the GFS, ICON, EURO, and the pros over the NAM brothers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 DT vs. All of the Models. Only one will survive. It’s going to be a nail biter, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: I think I found a more confusing map to read than DT’s: What Intern made that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: What Intern made that? Looks like an NAM 3k precip map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 degrees here.. never got above 22 today. It's going to be all snow/sleet in Bel Air. maybe drizzle when the low passes north. Kind of excited, convective storm. 980smb low passing overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: DT's last call map. He is heading to an epic bust IMO. Looks like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looks like the euro. His maps always do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This thread is long and we are under 24hrs until game time. Someone start an obs/now cast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: His maps always do Your area still looks to be in a decent spot. The euro is on your side with this one. Many times it's dr no. Not this time it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Your area still looks to be in a decent spot. The euro is on your side with this one. Many times it's dr no. Not this time it seems Fingers crossed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Liking where Charlottesville is for this storm. I think the WAA might overperform here then we dryslot 30/4Good luck - let me know what you measure. Decided it wasn’t worth the early travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Sernest14 said: May be the greatest asshole but he’s also a great met Hugging the EURO does not make anyone a great met. He's far from being a "great" met. We are talking about a guy who was fired from the NWS, in addition to a guy that bashes not only the NWS but every local/regional met. He does this in the middle of storms as a way to divert traffic from his site when he knows his forecast is going to bust. Lets not forget the nasty harassment of former CBS 6 met Nikki Dee-Ray. That was absolutely disgusting and unacceptable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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