MLK 2022 Storm Potential

[Bob Chill]

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's uncommon to have all 3 on top of each other like this south of us. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Was the 6z euro that bad? Didn’t see it posted.

[Baltimorewx]

1 hour ago, Ruin said:

and look at it now its going to go into south central PA straight north. All the talk about cold air surprising this storm went out the window in less then 12 hours. I mean for heavens sake going from right at the coast then to push in western VA in some models is crazy. I even made a joke watch this turn into a apps runner and by god it did. at this point I wouldnt be surprised if it ended up in western PA or if it decided to go more east

Negatively tilted trough, closed low, it’s going to tug it west. There’s nothing unusual about this in my opinion, it’s happened before. The phase/capture needs to happen later for it to track off the coast 

[snowfan]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Was the 6z euro that bad? Didn’t see it posted.

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

[SnowCane]

Regardless of how much snow we get, it’s going to be a nice stormy evening to cook gumbo, watch the playoffs and enjoy the wind drive precip bouncing around outside. Cheers to the weekend y’all. Since I’ve moved from Alabama to Gaithersburg in 2019, we haven’t had more than 5 inches from one storm here. Maybe that’ll end before the winter’s over! 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

That’s 0z

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Was the 6z euro that bad? Didn’t see it posted.

Dr. No Clue still thinks you're getting 8 inches and me 11.  

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s 0z

In that case…..

 

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, snowfan said:

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

Nah that was the 6z GFS, didn’t see the euro run. 

[astarck]

This thread reads like a group therapy session.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Well, it's 17 degrees outside. 12z NAM really wants to gravitate toward the coastline. will be a fun storm to nowcast. I think we can get 3-4 hours of really heavy snow. 

[mappy]

Just enjoy the front end snow y’all. Snow is snow regardless of amounts. 

[nw baltimore wx]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's not common to have all 3 on top of each other like this. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

I think that helps explain the jumping of the L on the models. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the area of low pressure is broad in this case, so from one panel to the next on the model runs it looks like the L is doing errands in the neighborhood. 

[jonjon]

7 hours ago, nj2va said:

Similar flip time on the Euro for DC but slightly less QPF so totals are lower.  It also has the Monday AM light snow pulling through mainly N MD.

It’s looking increasingly likely out here in McHenry that the bulk of the snow will come from upslope.  Euro has a “warm” layer at 700 poking into western MD (-1 which is warm for that level) which will likely mean less than 10:1 ratios.  Ratios greatly improve as the low gets N of our latitude.  

 

Yes, I believe some out here may be disappointed as to how much we have on the ground Monday morning (I wouldn't be shocked to have a change or mix with sleet for a while Sunday night), only to watch the snow pile up on the backside upslope between Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

[StormyClearweather]

3k NAM is a bit slower with the changeover than the 12km. HRRR (yeah, I know) is slower still, so... fingers crossed?

[EastCoast NPZ]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think a lot of the unwillingness to accept the outcome stems from not understanding how low pressure systems evolve. There isn't just a surface low like everyone looks at on TT. There are also mid and upper level lows. At our latitude in the winters, it's not common to have all 3 on top of each other like this. They are usually "slanted" with the surface first and upper last. When you get all 3 spinning together right over top of each other and no cold high feeding the beast,, you better be far NW from the center or you're in big wet trouble.

I don't recall, but have any of our big snowstorms became stacked south of us?

We all know the perfect track of the SLP, but what is the optimum track of the 700 and 500 lows?

Where do we want the capture to occur?

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Well, it's 17 degrees outside. 12z NAM really wants to gravitate toward the coastline. will be a fun storm to nowcast. I think we can get 3-4 hours of really heavy snow. 

That’s the fun part about this.  You never know what will happen until it happens.

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Yes, I believe some out here may be disappointed as to how much we have on the ground Monday morning (I wouldn't be shocked to have a change or mix with sleet for a while Sunday night), only to watch the snow pile up on the backside upslope between Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground.  It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up.

Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there.  I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis.

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, snowfan said:

In that case…..

 

You missed the rest of Virginia.  

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think that helps explain the jumping of the L on the models. Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but the area of low pressure is broad in this case, so from one panel to the next on the model runs it looks like the L is doing errands in the neighborhood. 

That low jump is just a digital thing from what I can tell. Model graphic output is programmed to stamp an L at the lowest pressure but the lowest pressure is fluid so the L jumps around inside the "bag of low pressure". I like using the shaded mslp anomaly maps to just compare the bigger bag (general center) and not the L (specific center). I could be wrong here so someone correct me if so

[jonjon]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground.  It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up.

Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there.  I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis.

Its actually a pretty exciting storm considering its rare track.  Its possible for an upside surprise with the first part of the storm if we can stay all snow and stay under heavier returns for a while.  But the bread-n-butter upslope snow will definitely salvage whatever precedes it.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, jonjon said:

Its actually a pretty exciting storm considering its rare track.  Its possible for an upside surprise with the first part of the storm if we can stay all snow and stay under heavier returns for a while.  But the bread-n-butter upslope snow will definitely salvage whatever precedes it.

Being in Garrett co for this one too, the models are loving the upslope even on globals for Wisp down thru your neck of the woods. Those 45mph gusts and a passing potent s/w won’t hurt enhancement.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Y’all see the NAM moving toward the other models, right?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 3K NAM:  not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well.

[LeesburgWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 3K NAM:  not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well.

I guess we are tracking wind now

[Fozz]

20 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yep, when you see the final accumulation maps showing 10”-12”+, there’ll be some folks out here screaming bust when there’s mixing tomorrow night/poor snow growth and 1-3” on the ground.  It’s sort of a two-parter - WAA where we’ll deal with lower ratios and mixing with sleet and then pure fluff Monday into Tuesday AM where we stack up.

Y’all are going to clean up with the the upslope down there.  I’ll do well up here but this setup will crush Davis.

I'll be staying in Garrett county Sunday through Tuesday, but I'm thinking I will head to Timberline on Monday. It's a bit of a drive but it looks way too good to resist. And this time it looks like just about the entire mountain will be open. An amazing opportunity coming up.

[Warm Nose]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z 3K NAM:  not as much precipitation in central zones.That will be interesting to track as well.

Yikes on that ice and wind. Along the BR Loudoun and North is gonna see power outages  

[StormchaserChuck!]

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That’s the fun part about this.  You never know what will happen until it happens.

I could see a quick 4-5" here in Bel Air, 5-6" NW. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

1 minute ago, Warm Nose said:

Yikes on that ice and wind. Along the BR Loudoun and North is gonna see power outages  

It’s easy to understate that this will be an epic ice storm in some areas that’s going to cause massive power outages and disruptions. I’d rather take the rain and wind 

[Yeoman]

45 minutes ago, snowfan said:

@nj2vaposted a few pages back when the weenies were still asleep.

My weenie is still asleep after seeing it