nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said: Do you have the entire state of va? Through end of the run (captures the upslope). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Like a rock It really hasn’t wavered for days. I’d trust Euro and (starting tomorrow) 3k NAM with thermals. Or just blend the wettest + coldest models for the weenie way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Euro lost 3 inches in leesburg 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Through end of the run (captures the upslope). You missed a part of the state lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: His map FROM 8 MINUTES AGO! Ji gets 10 and I get 11-15. Bwahahahaha! Trust me, he will have 5 more renditions of his map before game time. His final, last, map will be more in line with model output. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:29 PM, Snowfan96 said: Yes! DC south and east get an inch or two of snow - at best - then it quickly turns to rain, and almost as quickly ends. Even the areas west, closer to I-81 will receive less than currently advertised. The trends among nearly all of the guidance has been for a stronger system with a sfc low track farther west. This results in an inevitably minor event, esp. for the I-95 corridor and most of the Shenandoah Valley as well. Nearly all of the guidance has now come in line with this thinking (posted yesterday afternoon)...so it looks like this "Grinch" will be correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Through end of the run (captures the upslope). That motherfocking realtor hasn't called me back yet. I need to get that property. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: That motherfocking realtor hasn't called me back yet. I need to get that property. I passed it on the way here and put out a “BUY ME NOW” sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: It really hasn’t wavered for days. I’d trust Euro and (starting tomorrow) 3k NAM with thermals. Or just blend the wettest + coldest models for the weenie way. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 58 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: His map FROM 8 MINUTES AGO! Ji gets 10 and I get 11-15. Bwahahahaha! He’s following the euro obviously. One thing though … he knows more than most of us. He’s a snow weenie but I don’t think his thoughts just get dismissed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Recent obs, the low center was southeast of Wichita Falls TX and the closest place with snow was Des Moines IA. There are strong northerly winds blowing into the TX panhandle from CO and w KS but that air is the old stale chinook being pulled out of MT and AB. By this time tomorrow the separation of low center and arctic wave will be about one-fifth as large as it is now. This is going to be an interesting storm to track into the southeast US, whatever it actually ends up doing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, IronTy said: I'm only a weenie and not a guru but man 100 pages in and this is what we get does make me feel better that predicting the weather is tough for anybody. Weather forecasting definitely is tough. The "wishcasters" and "hypecasters" make it look a lot tougher than it should be sometimes though. This storm is a perfect example. The models got a grip on this storm around Tuesday/Wednesday and really haven't changed course much at all. It's been plastered in front of us for several days, yet people have been clinging to the hope that favorable shifts would occur. By no means am I saying that's a bad thing. Things can always change, especially with the weather. The point is, one could've made a general "forecast" based on what the data was spitting out all the way back on Wednesday, and although not all details would be pinned down, you could've given a fairly accurate overview on what was coming. Getting twisted up between what looks like a realistic outcome and what you personally want can make any forecaster look bad. Good Meteorologists keep those two things seperate for the most part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Done in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not Did you see his start time map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Warm Nose said: Did you see his start time map? Oh the cluster f***? Yeah, I got a migraine looking at it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Nearly all of the guidance has now come in line with this thinking (posted yesterday afternoon)...so it looks like this "Grinch" will be correct. Best turn off your computer Sunday if you’re not. I like me some early calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: I passed it on the way here and put out a “BUY ME NOW” sign We're ready to buy today, cold hard cash...also untraceable bills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro lost 3 inches in leesburg I'll see if I can find them on my way to snowshoe 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If anybody gets the eps post it in the long range thread too. Interested to see what it says about next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not Nothings on top of each other in your screenshot? The purple shows that there will also be icing in these areas. But on that note, no idea how that much snow drops if they’re also get ice as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sernest14 said: Nothings on top of each other in your screenshot? The purple shows that there will also be icing in these areas. But on that note, no idea how that much snow drops if they’re also get ice as well Dude….there’s little separation between the zones was the point I was making. I also agree with your point concerning the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Can I ask a serious question…..what in the actual f*** is going on here? DT has these zones literally on top of each other. Down in southern VA where I’m at, I’m in the 3-16 zone. I mean seriously……this is comical but also it’s not 10-11" zone lol was that needed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Somebody pony up the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: His map FROM 8 MINUTES AGO! Ji gets 10 and I get 11-15. Bwahahahaha! What model is this guy using? I’d love to see it. Must be drunk as hell and can’t see the county/state lines while making his map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Somebody pony up the eps EPS (10:1 ratio) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: EPS (10:1 ratio) Thank you. Do you have any idea what it shows for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you. Do you have any idea what it shows for next week? Some good stuff in the LR thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Come oooon 00z, don’t do us dirty 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Some good stuff in the LR thread. Not the 18z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Come oooon 00z, don’t do us dirty Maybe the NAM will delay the storm until Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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