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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm hard pressed to remember a storm where the NAM didn't play the role of boogeyman

I'm hard pressed to remember a storm track like the one the models are spitting out. I was convinced 3 days ago this would either cut or ride the coast. Weird times we live in.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except its not just the NAM.  Check out the RGEM.   Changes to sleet and freezing rain all the way to Erie! 

That's wild, I just looked.  12z GFS also has this thin pocket of warm air aloft at 850mb west of the Apps at 0z Monday.  Seems that there's a 850-700mb secondary low that moves west of the Apps and brings that warm air aloft.  Interesting.  

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First time checking in since earlier this AM. Was expecting semi-happy hour. Seems like there is most definitely some drinks being poured, but more like pour one out for our dead storm. Eff it! I’ll enjoy the 10 seconds of flurries and sleet and move on to next weekend. Izzy! (TWCs stupid name). You’re freaking dead to me! Middle finger emoji. :lol:

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We all lol at projected ice totals, but we better hope they're wrong this time. We have cold air locked in ahead of the event and this is falling at night, with wind behind. A couple counties could get whacked pretty hard with decent power outages and trees into houses, especially once you get up towards Frederick.

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3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

First time checking in since earlier this AM. Was expecting semi-happy hour. Seems like there is most definitely some drinks being poured, but more like pour one out for our dead storm. Eff it! I’ll enjoy the 10 seconds of flurries and sleet and move on to next weekend. Izzy! (TWCs stupid name). You’re freaking dead to me! Middle finger emoji. :lol:

I even heard Cantori turned around and went home.  What if nature made a storm and nobody came?

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We all lol at project ice totals, but we better hope they're wrong this time. We have cold air locked in ahead of the event and this is falling at night, with wind behind. A couple counties could get whacked pretty hard with decent power outages and trees into houses, especially once you get up towards Frederick.

I am hoping everyone that is going to get ice gets a couple of inches of snow first. It would help a ton. 

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52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It did...but that storm the low tracked up into the delmarva and the warm layer blasted some sleet and a dry slot into south central PA to places like Harrisburg.  That was significantly further NW than thinking...but I've seen that before, especially with a bad upper level track in that case.  But here the upper and mid level track is through VA just south of DC.  The surface track is up just west of the bay.  And the NAM is mixing with sleet and freezing rain all the way to Lake Erie.  That seems a bit off.  Ive never seen THAT!  

The 2016 President's day storm might be a better analog in this situation. That was a truly arctic airmass going into it.. but the cold air was scoured away incredibly quickly with a rather intrusive LP track. Single digits to 50s in just a day. 

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GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. 

Still 58hrs away, a slight shift SE could still be in the cards. 

gfs_namer_058_snodpth_chng.gif 

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2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. 

It's Over Johnny GIFs | Tenor

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