WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Over/under … the NAM gets the storm here before Monday? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'm skeptical DCA gets below freezing this weekend at all. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Over/under … the NAM gets the storm here before Monday? The NAM may not even finish running by Monday... so slow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 surface looks marginal better. maybe we'll get a slightly quicker transfer, though not sure that would even be better with that easterly component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: The NAM may not even finish running by Monday... so slow. Honestly was about to say the same thing. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It really is like 2 hours of not heavy snow on the front end of the NAM before we ping and then rain. Brutal. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This one will be easy to sleep though, wake up to pounding rain and bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 we need this storm tomorrow instead of sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I would suggest for some of you to just let this one go and go back into LR tracking. Still things to monitor there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I would suggest for some of you to just let this one go and go back into LR tracking. Still things to monitor there See you over there. Wait for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 It didnt make much difference for us yet, but this was the first run of the NAM where it went the other way and had a less aggressive push of the warm layer. Also a slightly better h5 and surface initially. Baby step...we would need a couple more adjustments like this to see much benefit though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM Nest is trending to an all out ice storm with very little snow. It would actually be a legit ice storm north and west of the Piedmont as depicted. South of the fall line would be basically a marginal winter event before rising above freezing. If that holds, forecasts will need to be changed drastically. Not going to pull the trigger yet, but the NAM Nest is good at these events once inside 36 hrs. Will be something to monitor. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3k holds the column at DCA until maybe 8 pm.....so the 0.08" of liquid that falls before then should be all snow....get your trashcans prepped 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The forever silly melancholy overspreads . Why be here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM following reminds me a that Stephen King movie Storm of the Century where the people are just blindly walking down a pier and jumping into a raging ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I would suggest for some of you to just let this one go and go back into LR tracking. Still things to monitor there But then who would be left to do the wishcasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM Nest is trending to an all out ice storm with very little snow. It would actually be a legit ice storm north and west of the Piedmont as depicted. South of the fall line would be basically a marginal winter event before rising above freezing. If that holds, forecasts will need to be changed drastically. Not going to pull the trigger yet, but the NAM Nest is good at these events once inside 36 hrs. Will be something to monitor. 2008 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: It really is like 2 hours of not heavy snow on the front end of the NAM before we ping and then rain. Brutal. Don't look at the NAM positive snow depth change map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yay Cleveland 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Quickest 1” ever lol You have apparently never been to my house. 1 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Yay Cleveland Goooo Guardians!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, high risk said: I would bet my left nut that DC goes above freezing before we do. I would bet both my nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Don't look at the NAM positive snow depth change map. Don't even need to. 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 3k holds the column at DCA until maybe 8 pm.....so the 0.08" of liquid that falls before then should be all snow....get your trashcans prepped Don't worry, the extra 0.17" or so of sleet/ZR will be immediately washed away by the following torrent of rain at 37 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... 2 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 3k holds the column at DCA until maybe 8 pm.....so the 0.08" of liquid that falls before then should be all snow....get your trashcans prepped I just beet juice sprayed it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Radar looks meh 45.8/33 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Va wine country Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... But for the fails, victory would not taste so sweet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Don't look at the NAM positive snow depth change map. I never do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We spent 5 days tracking an inch of snow then slop. What a time... We beat the hell out of this thing only to go limp at the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: NAM Nest is trending to an all out ice storm with very little snow. It would actually be a legit ice storm north and west of the Piedmont as depicted. South of the fall line would be basically a marginal winter event before rising above freezing. If that holds, forecasts will need to be changed drastically. Not going to pull the trigger yet, but the NAM Nest is good at these events once inside 36 hrs. Will be something to monitor. I have no doubts the warm layer will blast through this area with no trouble...but I have to think the NAM is way overdone overall. It's really indicating not much snow anywhere...flipping everyone to ice even to the NW edges of the storm. I have never seen that before when a cold airmass in place in January and a surface track east of the blue ridge. To change over all the way into western PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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