jayyy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just as we have suspected for days now - many in the subwill need to rely on the WAA thump for snow outside of far NW zones. 1-3/2-4” before the changeover is a reasonable forecast for dc and Baltimore with higher amounts as you head WNW of the 95 corridor. The euro is indeed trending the way we need it to as PSU pointed out, but it’s trending too slowly. Going to need to see the trend continue in Ernest at 12z and beyond or else we simply don’t have enough time to get to where we need to be by the time Sunday rolls around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: I don't doubt that the GFS and Euro are overselling the snow. But there's no way the NAM gets this exactly right. Local mets are saying 4-8" across the Piedmont.. with a quarter inch of ice. That sounds about right. Gun to my head I'd agree with that, but the NAMs do give me some pause. Think others have toted the possibility of that warm nose sneaking in earlier than progged and the NAM does do a good job with that. If both NAMs hold that look throughout the day, I think there could start being some serious ice storm murmurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ice + Wind = Power Outages. Let's hope that doesn't materialize though I suspect it'll be the biggest threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVDAVE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, nj2va said: You can't go wrong with any along the spine of the Apps from WV up to Garrett County, from Snowshoe up to Timberline/Canaan and north to Wisp. Upslope totals will be higher in Snowshoe and Canaan due to their higher elevation. Totals during the WAA portion may be lower in Snowshoe due to mixing in these setups (see above) but honestly, all of these areas will do well. I don't know much about VA/PA ski resorts. Seven Springs/Hidden Valley in PA are also on the windward side of the Allegheny Front and will get significant upslope snow, like Wisp, Canaan, and Snowshoe. Virginia resorts will not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WVDAVE said: Seven Springs/Hidden Valley in PA are also on the windward side of the Allegheny Front and will get significant upslope snow, like Wisp, Canaan, and Snowshoe. Virginia resorts will not. Yeah I assumed places down there like Omni even are on the leeward side. They should do well in the storm itself, but not the upslope stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 is the FV3 a piece of dung? I hope not 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ji said: is the FV3 a piece of dung? I hope not It was terrible with the Jan 3 storm earlier in the year until a day or so out, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I know NAM gets trashed, which is usually pretty spot on when we’re talking about 60-84 hours, but if the 12k and 3K are showing a major ice storm at the 24-48 hour mark, we need to be paying attention, as the NAM is better at picking up mid level warming in these setups than the GFS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: is the FV3 a piece of dung? I hope not That'll last like an hour until the Low heads north and torches the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 29 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM for Monday morning shows this: and it's easy to look at that and say "some patchy light snow" in the DC metro area, but the 500 map shows an impressive vort pass right through the area at that time, so this is likely a representation of some heavy convective snow showers. The h5 pass is further NW on the NAM, not necessarily shocking at range...if the euro/gfs h5 pass is more accurate I think a period of snow early Monday is definitely a possibility. Especially if that feature continues to trend a little SE as it did the last couple runs on the globals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 30 minutes ago, Potvinsux said: Will be in Snowshoe this weekend. That is the issue right now, dry slot and mixing. Snowshoe seems to switchover for a period of time with this type of setup. At least right now, my expectations will be on the lower snowfall totals until the switchover occurs and back to snow early Monday. I will be there also...I only expect several inches of snow/ice from the front side of this storm...but they will clean up on the backside once the winds flip to the NW. That's perfect upslope flow and it's the kind of snow they get very high ratios, 20-1. I could see them getting 8" from that late Sunday night through Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Marty Huggins says for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 32 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Which Ski resort areas do we think will do best in this storm? Looks like good upslope in Snowshoe/Wisp after the storm? Do Timberline/Canaan also tend to do well in these setups? Also was looking down into some of the VA resorts and PA (Seven Springs?) Any thoughts from the group. My guess is they all underperform on the front and overperform on the back of the storm. In the end they probably all get at least 6" and some of the more favored upslope locations like Snowshoe and Timberline probably closer to 10-12 with the upslope being the majority of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The RGEM really bumped up the ice totals out this way as well. Lucy has spoken again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 When Tropical Tidbutts hides the panels you need to see the most 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ji said: When Tropical Tidbutts hides the panels you need to see the most Hiding you from the pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a.salt Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Amazing consistency in the models for this storm. Virtually unwavering for days. Don’t think I’ve ever seen that. Doesn’t mean they have it right yet though. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 From an NWS met 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 VDOT brining the shit out of the roads today. Gotta love the stupidity to destroy our watersheds all for cars 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ICON has blue West of Fairfax County through 3z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 48 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Oh right, I forgot germs didn't exist before 2020. Besides, I'm behind on my hail marys Apparently I didn't say enough of them last night either. Looks like almost all rain for me. Yet they're treating the roads as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: VDOT brining the shit out of the roads today. Gotta love the stupidity to destroy our watersheds all for cars Or the refusal to find another alternative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 31 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Ice + Wind = Power Outages. Let's hope that doesn't materialize though I suspect it'll be the biggest threat. Power is already out for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: ICON has blue West of Fairfax County through 3z Icon also absolutely sucks at warm noses/mid levels too. And this is the wrong storm by a million miles to be weak in that dept 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: ICON has blue West of Fairfax County through 3z A note of caution about the ICON, it shows anything with below freezing surface temperatures as snow (and vice versa) so it wouldn't show sleet or ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: VDOT brining the shit out of the roads today. Gotta love the stupidity to destroy our watersheds all for cars You prefer we destroy our watersheds by littering them with broken glass, plastic and steel from cars? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, H2O said: VDOT brining the shit out of the roads today. Gotta love the stupidity to destroy our watersheds all for cars 2 minutes ago, mattskiva said: You prefer we destroy our watersheds by littering them with broken glass, plastic and steel from cars? VDOT is using beet juice and salt alternatives this year. Not joking...much less salt application. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 the 12z gfs ticked something somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 First Call Map I'll have more on my current thoughts later today when I get a chance. I also want to see any shifts in the ULL track and timing of vertical stack with the SLP. Some changes may occur in the next 24-36 hrs for my forecast, but zones should stay relatively the same. 15 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts