Anyweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: I like this example How about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Sleet beats rain. to each their own 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM seems to be moving really slow on Sunday. at 18z precip isnt anywhere near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 sleet sucks, though i could do without power outages (though a little ice can be fun). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM seems to be moving really slow on Sunday. at 18z precip isnt anywhere near us Yeah it is moving like TT website 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 I for one will enjoy our 3 hours of snow. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: NAM seems to be moving really slow on Sunday. at 18z precip isnt anywhere near us So much for closing church Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: I for one will enjoy our 3 hours of snow. Switchover at sunset.. can't get any better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: So much for closing church yea all my church friends are upset.....amazing how church staff dont want to be at church either lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll take the NAM... snow to ice to an hour or so of rain to dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM has precip in the DC area basically outta here by 06z monday (after only getting here just after 21z sunday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: Switchover at sunset.. can't get any better yup, then 3 hours of fake freezing rain, then dryslot after a little rain. Meanwhile NAM gets zr all the way back to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'll take the NAM... snow to ice to an hour or so of rain to dry slot yeah, ice at 32F should pile up real quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: yeah, ice at 32F should pile up real quick. Nice crunchy snow on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 lol the NAM gives me half an inch of snow and 8 tenths of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Lol NAM turns C VA into MD into an ice rink 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: One small detail I've been wondering about seems to have appeared on the 0z Euro (at least). The annoying/helpful/disastrous northern stream shortwave makes a pretty good pass for the metro areas late on Monday. And it's strong obviously. Euro spits out some light snow with it. I think that's very plausible and could add C-1" later on Monday. Models are starting to pick up on the mid level warming so it’s offset this trend in terms of snowfall results but we’re finally actually getting the trend we want since 18z wrt the NS SW diving in behind and it’s corresponding interaction with our storm. 18z euro to 6z euro It was an incremental trend the last 2 runs. Results in a slightly weaker and further south h5 track initially. It’s not enough YET to change our fate, and it’s been offset by models starting to realize the warm layer issues…but if that trend were to continue it could lead to the chance for some snow with the h5 pass. It could also help with the WAA some if we continued to see this trend but we would need several more bumps and the improvement would likely only be incremental since that part is mostly baked in at this point because of how amplified and cut off the h5 is to our south and the lack of confluence over the top to resist the SE flow ahead of it. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM keeps that dry slot over WV (and out of western MD). I wouldn't be surprised if I mix in McHenry for a short period of time with the 850 winds blasting from the east before the winds shift back out of the NW at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, Yeoman said: So much for closing church Do what I do and just don't go at all. Stay home and enjoy the weather while avoiding the multitude of germs out there. Lots of excuses these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The NAM for Monday morning shows this: and it's easy to look at that and say "some patchy light snow" in the DC metro area, but the 500 map shows an impressive vort pass right through the area at that time, so this is likely a representation of some heavy convective snow showers. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: NAM keeps that dry slot over WV (and out of western MD). I wouldn't be surprised if I mix in McHenry for a short period of time with the 850 winds blasting from the east before the winds shift back out of the NW at 850. Will be in Snowshoe this weekend. That is the issue right now, dry slot and mixing. Snowshoe seems to switchover for a period of time with this type of setup. At least right now, my expectations will be on the lower snowfall totals until the switchover occurs and back to snow early Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, IceCAPS said: Do what I do and just don't go at all. Stay home and enjoy the weather while avoiding the multitude of germs out there. Lots of excuses these days. Oh right, I forgot germs didn't exist before 2020. Besides, I'm behind on my hail marys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, high risk said: The NAM for Monday morning shows this: and it's easy to look at that and say "some patchy light snow" in the DC metro area, but the 500 map shows an impressive vort pass right through the area at that time, so this is likely a representation of some heavy convective snow showers. The Euro and gfs last night had a pretty robust band Monday morning as well. Would be nice to put a fresh inch on top of the frozen slop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Which Ski resort areas do we think will do best in this storm? Looks like good upslope in Snowshoe/Wisp after the storm? Do Timberline/Canaan also tend to do well in these setups? Also was looking down into some of the VA resorts and PA (Seven Springs?) Any thoughts from the group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Potvinsux said: Will be in Snowshoe this weekend. That is the issue right now, dry slot and mixing. Snowshoe seems to switchover for a period of time with this type of setup. At least right now, my expectations will be on the lower snowfall totals until the switchover occurs and back to snow early Monday. Yeah, agree with that on the mixing in this setup...hopefully the dry slot stays to the west over central WV or NW of there. But upslope looks to be good so I think you'll make up for it there IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 looks like the NAM has .8 to an inch of frozen liquid for some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Which Ski resort areas do we think will do best in this storm? Looks like good upslope in Snowshoe/Wisp after the storm? Do Timberline/Canaan also tend to do well in these setups? Also was looking down into some of the VA resorts and PA (Seven Springs?) Any thoughts from the group. You can't go wrong with any along the spine of the Apps from WV up to Garrett County, from Snowshoe up to Timberline/Canaan and north to Wisp. Upslope totals will be higher in Snowshoe and Canaan due to their higher elevation. Totals during the WAA portion may be lower in Snowshoe due to mixing in these setups (see above) but honestly, all of these areas will do well. I don't know much about VA/PA ski resorts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM looks good to me. Maybe 5 hours of snow and an EAGLE upset will make my day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: lol the NAM gives me half an inch of snow and 8 tenths of ice. yeah, that one is a pass. couple more runs like that and my journey to cville may get canceled. think I can wait till Sunday morning to make the call. ice + wind = cya, I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: yeah, that one is a pass. couple more runs like that and my journey to cville may get canceled. think I can wait till Sunday morning to make the call. ice + wind = cya, I'm out. I don't doubt that the GFS and Euro are overselling the snow. But there's no way the NAM gets this exactly right. Local mets are saying 4-8" across the Piedmont.. with a quarter inch of ice. That sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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