WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 3:17 AM, MDsnowPRO said: RGEM….Hmmm Expand That’s what we call a flat high and it’s perfect but storm too far away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I’m not following the purple through SEVA on that. It’ll start Monday 1a there but Sunday 1p in NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:29 AM, Snowchaser said: Talk about crayons Expand I’ve seen kindergarten scribble scrabble that looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:29 AM, Snowchaser said: Talk about crayons Expand So it looks like start times in NE AND southern Va are both at 1am Monday. “That would be a neat trick.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GGEM has single digits N&W of 95 Sunday morning, low teens for the cities. Even if overdone, that’s some impressive cold (yes, realize this setup will scour out the mid levels quickly yadda yadda). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:37 AM, wasnow215 said: So it looks like start times in NE AND southern Va are both at 1am Monday. “That would be a neat trick.” Expand I'm more impressed that Roanoke and much of the state of Tennessee have multiple start times for the same location. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:17 AM, NorthArlington101 said: FWIW Expand See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:44 AM, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow!0 chance i get 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:45 AM, Ji said: On 1/14/2022 at 4:44 AM, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! Expand 0 chance i get 10 Expand 5 1 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:45 AM, Ji said: On 1/14/2022 at 4:44 AM, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! Expand 0 chance i get 10 Expand 60 percent chance you get 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:46 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand Funny that it shifted SE with the track like 100 miles from the previous run lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:48 AM, DDweatherman said: Funny that it shifted SE with the track like 100 miles from the previous run lol Expand The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:54 AM, IUsedToHateCold said: The final track depends most on the shortwave behind the system if I understand this correctly. That's what is pulling it northward up to PA on the GFS. Ideally we would want that to be weaker or further N/W. The actual track of the storm is fine, but looking at the H5 maps on the GFS you can see the bowling ball being pulled inward as the shortwave dips down to grab it. Expand 100%, the h5 passage going through spots like WV (RGEM) is almost never going to end well for us. The 0z gfs was ever so slightly south with the pass thru DC/NVA. If that gets down to EZF even, there would normally be improvements in the result at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:46 AM, psuhoffman said: Too east lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:45 AM, Ji said: On 1/14/2022 at 4:44 AM, Jebman said: See Clueless? Told ya. You are gonna get demolished by snow! Expand 0 chance i get 10 Expand Zero chance might be too much. I think we have a slight chance, but low indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 5:09 AM, LeesburgWx said: Zero chance might be too much. I think we have a slight chance, but low indeed Expand He should just put a 6-11” zone in between. Would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Anybody have the Ukie? Seemed pretty consistent last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 5:15 AM, Buddy1987 said: Anybody have the Ukie? Seemed pretty consistent last several runs. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS/UKIE combo would be nice here... 3-5" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 4:22 AM, Deck Pic said: I realize this is a broad brush map for a large area, but if Garrett/Tucker/laurels jack, I'm probably not getting 6" Expand The Alleghenies always jack in these storms, what does that have to do with you? They jacked even when we got 3ft back in '16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks like 2-4... maybe 3-5 DC metro and westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 6:10 AM, Deck Pic said: Euro is pretty gross for the coastal plain. Still I probably get 2-4" on the front. Expand On 1/14/2022 at 6:11 AM, yoda said: Looks like 2-4... maybe 3-5 DC metro and westward Expand PW snow map has 4" at DCA... fine with me. 6" line is just east of the BR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 WB 0z models 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 All the 0Z suite give Loudoun 6"+, except the GEM which has a stupid bias. If those numbers are right, I'll take that. Of course some of that is probably sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems solid. I’ll take my 8-12” and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yeah yeah... but 06z NAM is lights out for the I95 to I81 corridor... bad ice storm including EZF and DCA and IAD and BWI... into most of C VA into N VA and a majority of MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 7:27 AM, Snowchaser said: Seems solid. I’ll take my 8-12” and run. Expand Clueless - See what I have been tellin you all along! You get 7 to 10 inches from this! You'll see some mix, but you will SCORE with those orographics! You got elevation! You will have local maxima as well, local lollis of perhaps 11-12 inches. Ji is in Leesburg, he will get demolished too! Any sleet you guys get will only strengthen the pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 8:48 AM, yoda said: Yeah yeah... but 06z NAM is lights out for the I95 to I81 corridor... bad ice storm including EZF and DCA and IAD and BWI... into most of C VA into N VA and a majority of MD Expand 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ001-501-502-VAZ025>030-503-504-507-508-WVZ050-051-055-501>506- 142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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