BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Maybe this is a season of overpreformers? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 1:41 AM, BristowWx said: 0z runs will be a big deal..big deal Expand I hope 0z marks the moment when our King GFS will lead us into a triumphant victory. Perhaps, with its mighty sword it will deal a deathblow to this evil shortwave that chains the storm to the mountains. Finally free, our storm will run free up the coast at last, delivering snow for all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 1:22 AM, AU74 said: Went with weenie because I couldn't find the gag button. Expand Just don't gag on your beef franks and you'll be A-ok. Remember, they plump when you cook 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 1:35 AM, clskinsfan said: I am nowhere near ready to make any kind of call. The models have consistently bullseyed me for 3 days. The Lucy rug pull could be right around the corner. Expand I’m thinking of coming to Frederick Co Va for this one if it still the bulls eye on Saturday and if it looks it will be a dud here in Owings Mills. My mom’s place is in a good location. Close to 1100 ft about 8 miles sw of Winchester. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ALEET ALEET……DT’s 1st guess map is coming shortly. He had to run to his local Wal-Mart and buy crayons 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 12:17 AM, Snowfan96 said: Couldn't agree more! With these types of events, the transition to sleet is often sooner and farther north and west than what the models like to depict. And if the parent system gets any stronger than currently projected - which is quite possible - that quick changeover is even more likely. Expand Seems like the over/under is 2-3" for many of us near/along the beltway in this setup. As noted, when the models suggest maybe 6 hours of snow, it's more like 3-4 before the mix. We can get a quick 2+ inches though because of good rates in that 3-4 hour burst. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Tip for our pros. This seems more relevant than 'best worst-case scenario' maps: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 1:29 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s Thursday Expand For all intents and purposes, the ops basically haven’t wavered in 2+ days. It’s uncanny, really, and despite talk of slowing down vorts and getting more confluence and getting good new data from dropsondes and shit, there’s no reason to think we’ll see much different play out on Sunday into Monday. You guys out west are going to get smoked. No need to try to downplay it for fear of jinxing it. It’s going to happen…it’s been a while since you guys have cashed in while folks to the east flipped. It’s like order is being restored to the universe. Us fancy city folk will rip fatties for 3-4 hours, ping, then warm up and rain for a bit. It is what it is, and personally as long as no one is posting snips of correlation coefficient radar as the mix line approaches, I’ll be fine. I’m already more than halfway to average for the season, so tacking on a few inches will just serve to get me even closer to that number. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 1:29 AM, Clueless said: Even out here my call is 3-4. Those warm noses never fail to verify. I expect a lot of mixing. Expand There may be a warm nose, but you, You are on Route 9. I've been there, many many times on the way to Charles Town. You got elevation. You are gonna get AT LEAST 7-8 inches. You're gonna get obliterated during the thump from orographic effects! Position yourself at Charles Town. They get demolished BAD in these kinds of setups. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:10 AM, yoda said: Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? Expand It Doesn’t Matter 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:11 AM, mattie g said: For all intents and purposes, the ops basically haven’t wavered in 2+ days. It’s uncanny, really, and despite talk of slowing down vorts and getting more confluence and getting good new data from dropsondes and shit, there’s no reason to think we’ll see much different play on Sunday into Monday. You guys west are going to get smoked. No need to try to downplay it for fear of jinxing it. It’s going to happen…it’s been a while since you guys have cashed in while folks to the east flipped. It’s like order is being restored to the universe. Us fancy city folk will rip fatties for 3-4 hours, ping, then warm up and rain for a bit. It is what it is, and personally as long as no one is posting snips of correlation coefficient radar as the mix line approaches, I’ll be fine. I’m already more than halfway to average for the season, so tacking on a few inches will just serve to get me even closer to that number. Expand What if I change my profile pic to the CC radar just as the mix line is on Burke’s doorstep? Does that count? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:11 AM, Jebman said: There may be a warm nose, but you, You are on Route 9. I've been there, many many times on the way to Charles Town. You got elevation. You are gonna get AT LEAST 7-8 inches. Expand You’d think. But thanks Jeb. I can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:13 AM, nj2va said: What if I change my profile pic to the CC radar just as the mix line is on Burke’s doorstep? Does that count? Expand Gotta admit, I chuckled. I might steal your idea. Gotta face your fears head on and all that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:14 AM, Clueless said: You’d think. But thanks Jeb. I can only hope. Expand Believe it. Enjoy it. Live it. You're gonna be diggin snow for a while. Don't make me have to use The Face for your backyard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:11 AM, mattie g said: It Doesn’t Matter Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:10 AM, yoda said: Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? Expand nah we want to wait till all the cold air is gone 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:10 AM, yoda said: Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no? Expand But what did it look like at 6hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Looks in the same spot as 18z at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Lol 00z NAM has SLP south of FL panhandle at 51 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:11 AM, Jebman said: There may be a warm nose, but you, You are on Route 9. I've been there, many many times on the way to Charles Town. You got elevation. You are gonna get AT LEAST 7-8 inches. You're gonna get obliterated during the thump from orographic effects! Position yourself at Charles Town. They get demolished BAD in these kinds of setups. Expand I'm at 800' literally a mile from the crest of the BR and we still get mixing a lot. If you're west of the ridge, sure. But if there's mixing it makes it out my way many times. I'll be shocked if we don't see some from this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:26 AM, yoda said: Lol 00z NAM has SLP south of FL panhandle at 51 Expand about the same odds as Brian Boyle getting a hat trick tonight in LA... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:28 AM, Warm Nose said: I'm at 800' literally a mile from the crest of the BR and we still get mixing a lot. If you're west of the ridge, sure. But if there's mixing it makes it out my way many times. I'll be shocked if we don't see some from this setup. Expand You'll probably see some mix, but not before you get THUMPED but good! Get a yardstick. Its easier to find lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 You couldn’t have two model runs look more identical than the NAM does at 57. I’m looking at NCEP btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:26 AM, yoda said: Lol 00z NAM has SLP south of FL panhandle at 51 Expand I think it Has to be around EYW to be relevant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:28 AM, Warm Nose said: I'm at 800' literally a mile from the crest of the BR and we still get mixing a lot. If you're west of the ridge, sure. But if there's mixing it makes it out my way many times. I'll be shocked if we don't see some from this setup. Expand Well. It won’t be too far a chase for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:30 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: You couldn’t have two model runs look more identical than the NAM does at 57. I’m looking at NCEP btw Expand i am having a hard time recalling a more steadily modeled storm. Like, it hasn't wavered in terms of outcomes, for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 CFS have any value in the short-range? Or the NAVGEM? 4 6 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On 1/14/2022 at 2:33 AM, North Balti Zen said: i am having a hard time recalling a more steadily modeled storm. Like, it hasn't wavered in terms of outcomes, for days. Expand If I remember correctly the Blizz of 93 was basically called from 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What a beast on the NAM. Yucatan express of moisture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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