SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Nevermind the low to the north No doubt that feature is daunting. Time will tell. 72 hours until game time and 48 hours until all the players are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Not worried about track west of DC with a 1030 to wnw and 1030 to ne. Would love to see that ne high be 100-150 miles further west come game time. I appreciate how adamant you are about this, and I REALLY hope your take turns out correct, but I think the writing is on the wall with this one. All the models are picking up on the jog of the surface low to the NW, and it's happening regardless of what happens earlier in the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m going to rely on the hills of sugarloaf to Damascus to protect the Frederick side, or at least delay the warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Oh yeah...will be there tomorrow evening through Tuesday. Mountains look to get smoked and upslope will be cranking Monday afternoon into the night. They need the snow. I have wisp tickets for Monday... not sure I'll be able to get to the mountain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM is running! Never Accept Model results 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, mdhokie said: I have wisp tickets for Monday... not sure I'll be able to get to the mountain! CWG's latest facebook post says only 1-4" for DC area, so I am sure you'll be fine - after all, they've never grossly underforecast amounts before lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mdhokie said: I have wisp tickets for Monday... not sure I'll be able to get to the mountain! You may just have to ski down your driveway. We were planning on going skiing Monday too but we live up an unpaved hill so I highly doubt I'll be heading out Monday -- maybe some night skiing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, gymengineer said: He’s certainly ruffled a lot of feathers lately for a bunch of other reasons. Like what? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Like what? He suckerpunched an old lady and kicked her Yorkie. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I think there was a discussion in the Banter thread a few days ago, if you scroll back past about 70 memes from 2015 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, mattie g said: He suckerpunched an old lady and kicked her Yorkie. It’s true. I saw the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterFire said: I think there was a discussion in the Banter thread a few days ago, if you scroll back past about 70 memes from 2015 lol I thought this was the banter thread, given the 70 or so memes from 2015 that were posted here this morning 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 NAM a little faster/SE with the northern energy thru h21 on our 18z NAM h24 is much of the same, similar heights in the east with the departing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mattskiva said: I thought this was the banter thread, given the 70 or so memes from 2015 that were posted here this morning This is the MLK Day storm banter thread. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Written like it should be read by one of those fast-talking radio news guys from the 1940s. Seriously, try sounding it out in your head in that mode. LOL lol that's cappucci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, Paleocene said: NAM is running! Never Accept Model results Always Be Clinging to the NAM when it shows what I want 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mattskiva said: I thought this was the banter thread, given the 70 or so memes from 2015 that were posted here this morning meh, we gotta entertain ourselves in between runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I wanted to post this earlier this morning but didn't have the time so then I figured I would wait until after the 12z models came in. But I wanted to explain why, as many have pointed out by now, the "favorable" changes earlier in runs don't seem to have much impact on the final end result. They have had some incremental benefits...which can result in an extra inch or two and maybe less of a warm up during the storm...but a rather significant 100 mile better track of the SW or the SLP early on at hour 60 or 72 ends up having very minimal impact later. It has to do with what happens around hour 78 or 18z Sunday. The changes we are seeing with the track of the SW and the SLP and the minor changes in the height field early on have little impact because they don't affect what happens Sunday much. First of all this was the look on that one GFS run that smoked us with a flush clean hit a few days ago. Notice the trough alignment is still slightly positive, and most importantly the flow over the top is pretty flat. There is just enough ridging to allow it to gain some latitude but its clearly going to move NE or ENE and not north or NNE. Now look at the latest run... The trough is very negative and the flow over the top is going to allow this to lift north. The H5 low is pretty similar here...what changed the most was 2 things. Look up near Greenland...we had a legit NAO block for a few runs that eroded into just a NAO ridge and ended up even more east based then progged. The result is the "blocked" flow ends up significantly further north and the orientation is all wrong. This allows the next NS wave to amplify southward and sharpen the trough which pumps the ridging over the top even more. This is the SLP position and H85 winds at 18z Sunday. There is nothing wrong with this low position. But the problem is because the Upper low is fully mature and amplified already at this point...even though the coastal is in its formative stages it already has an extremely powerful SE flow ahead of it. Actually because the surface low isn't yet well developed...its allowing the SE flow from the mature mid and upper level lows to dominate and drive well inland ahead of the low. This is going to blast the baroclinic zone well inland and create a natural boundary for the surface low to track. Add in the convection and the pressure falls that will induce and the low is going to chase that boundary due north from here, maybe even NNW. Here's the rub...it doesn't much matter exactly how the H5 or surface low tracks before this (to a point, coming back to that later)...because at this point the storm is about to phase and its happening at the worst possible time. As this happens the energy diving in behind (that was coming over the top a few days ago) is going to tug on this and pull it in. The further southeast it starts...it simply pulls it even further NW because the end point of the phase will be in middle between the two pieces of energy. They want to "come together". So if it starts further southeast....so long as that phase happens at that time...its just going to pull it further NW to make the phase happen. The changes will be there but much less then you would think from earlier trends. Looking at the exact SLP track on Saturday has little to do with this process (to a point). Minor changes in the height field over new england on Friday or Saturday have little impact because with the changes to the blocking, and that is not going to change back at this point, the trough up there will be long gone and not helpful at all by Sunday when this is happening. Its totally irrelevant what the heights are on Saturday by Sunday. The timing of this system and how it tracks rendered that moot. When it was 24 hours faster and coming in further north the spacing there mattered. Its no longer a factor at all imo. Now I said these things don't matter...too a point. They are nudging this on the margins...and if we were to get a continuous shift eventually we could get enough of a track adjustment to help some. But what matters more than some adjustment of the SLP or H5 early on is when and how the phase happens and how strong the mid and upper level features are over the southeast. We want a weaker trend more so than a location trend on the H5 low imo. Less wound up will induce less of a SE flow and the eventual phase and pull NW of the surface track could be less extreme or delayed. If we can get the surface low off to Hatteras before the capture and turn north we will do well. Thats only a delay of like 3-6 hours. That would be the best case scenario. But again I think the amplitude of the system has more to do with that than the exact track. Don't get me wrong further SE is good...but it has "limited" impact later...vs a weaker trend in the H5 would have a more dramatic difference imo. The other option would be an earlier phase...which would dry slot the crap out of us but would at least avoid the lower levels torching. After the phase the surface low once it tucks and stacks will turn back northeast...if that process were to happen further south the track could still stay east of us...but again the storm would be a mess with a huge dry slot as it passed us. Our problem is the phase and tuck/stack process is happening at the exact worst spot for us. Delay that by a few hours and get this to track up or east of the bay instead of up west of it and we would have a significantly better outcome. 9 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Like what? Oh, his Annapolis tornado antics is just one example. And his response to other meteorologists’ criticism of him for that reinforced a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam 18z, Euro 12z and GFS 12z all virtually the same through 36 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Not worried about track west of DC with a 1030 to wnw and 1030 to ne. Would love to see that ne high be 100-150 miles further west come game time. Those highs wont save us. If that massive storm is still spinning out in the Atlantic, there’s no room for our storm to track off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Big changes at 36 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Time to bring back this one 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Psuhoffman, how do you like your burgers and how could it be better? On 2/13/2021 at 3:12 PM, psuhoffman said: The issue here is the onions. The position is all wrong here. As illustrated below, if you move the onion (red arrow) dow under the lettuce, it would be in a more ideal position. Now the fries, which are lacking strong ketchup would need to be repositioned AND ketchup added. The problem with the tomatoes is that there needs to be more. The cheese is less than ideal and probably should be cheddar? We need to move the cheese, and probably the patty UNDER the lettuce and above the layer of mayo. Now the issue here is that the combination of the mayo and juice from the burger could create a weakness in the underlying bun. That bun would need to be fortified with not just enriched, and thus enhanced, wheat flour, but a solid combination of water, sugar, yeast, vegetable oil (canola and/or soy), vegetable proteins (pea, potato, faba bean), sunflower oil, corn dextrose, corn maltodextrin, corn starch, salt, BUT ALSO wheat gluten, dough conditioners (monoglycerides, datem, ascorbic acid, azodicarbonamide, mono- and diglycerides, ethoxylatedmonoglycerides, monocalcium phosphate, enzymes, guar gum, calcium peroxide), sorbic acid, calcium propionate and/or sodium propionate (preservatives), soy lecithin. The soy lecithin is the key and it has to be in position to hold together under the weight of the patty, onion, cheese lettuce and any other condiments. This is vital. Now personally, I would remove the lettuce (the blue X) because it bumps the burger in height unnecessarily and you’d have to basically unhinge your fuckng jaw like a snake would if eating a tiger or small horse. Basically that burger would need a LOT of things to go right for the burger to be optimal for my tastes. 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wanted to post this earlier this morning but didn't have the time so then I figured I would wait until after the 12z models came in. But I wanted to explain why, as many have pointed out by now, the "favorable" changes earlier in runs don't seem to have much impact on the final end result. They have had some incremental benefits...which can result in an extra inch or two and maybe less of a warm up during the storm...but a rather significant 100 mile better track of the SW or the SLP early on at hour 60 or 72 ends up having very minimal impact later. It has to do with what happens around hour 78 or 18z Sunday. The changes we are seeing with the track of the SW and the SLP and the minor changes in the height field early on have little impact because they don't affect what happens Sunday much. First of all this was the look on that one GFS run that smoked us with a flush clean hit a few days ago. Notice the trough alignment is still slightly positive, and most importantly the flow over the top is pretty flat. There is just enough ridging to allow it to gain some latitude but its clearly going to move NE or ENE and not north or NNE. Now look at the latest run... The trough is very negative and the flow over the top is going to allow this to lift north. The H5 low is pretty similar here...what changed the most was 2 things. Look up near Greenland...we had a legit NAO block for a few runs that eroded into just a NAO ridge and ended up even more east based then progged. The result is the "blocked" flow ends up significantly further north and the orientation is all wrong. This allows the next NS wave to amplify southward and sharpen the trough which pumps the ridging over the top even more. This is the SLP position and H85 winds at 18z Sunday. There is nothing wrong with this low position. But the problem is because the Upper low is fully mature and amplified already at this point...even though the coastal is in its formative stages it already has an extremely powerful SE flow ahead of it. Actually because the surface low isn't yet well developed...its allowing the SE flow from the mature mid and upper level lows to dominate and drive well inland ahead of the low. This is going to blast the baroclinic zone well inland and create a natural boundary for the surface low to track. Add in the convection and the pressure falls that will induce and the low is going to chase that boundary due north from here, maybe even NNW. Here's the rub...it doesn't much matter exactly how the H5 or surface low tracks before this (to a point, coming back to that later)...because at this point the storm is about to phase and its happening at the worst possible time. As this happens the energy diving in behind (that was coming over the top a few days ago) is going to tug on this and pull it in. The further southeast it starts...it simply pulls it even further NW because the end point of the phase will be in middle between the two pieces of energy. They want to "come together". So if it starts further southeast....so long as that phase happens at that time...its just going to pull it further NW to make the phase happen. The changes will be there but much less then you would think from earlier trends. Looking at the exact SLP track on Saturday has little to do with this process (to a point). Minor changes in the height field over new england on Friday or Saturday have little impact because with the changes to the blocking, and that is not going to change back at this point, the trough up there will be long gone and not helpful at all by Sunday when this is happening. Its totally irrelevant what the heights are on Saturday by Sunday. The timing of this system and how it tracks rendered that moot. When it was 24 hours faster and coming in further north the spacing there mattered. Its no longer a factor at all imo. Now I said these things don't matter...too a point. They are nudging this on the margins...and if we were to get a continuous shift eventually we could get enough of a track adjustment to help some. But what matters more than some adjustment of the SLP or H5 early on is when and how the phase happens and how strong the mid and upper level features are over the southeast. We want a weaker trend more so than a location trend on the H5 low imo. Less wound up will induce less of a SE flow and the eventual phase and pull NW of the surface track could be less extreme or delayed. If we can get the surface low off to Hatteras before the capture and turn north we will do well. Thats only a delay of like 3-6 hours. That would be the best case scenario. But again I think the amplitude of the system has more to do with that than the exact track. Don't get me wrong further SE is good...but it has "limited" impact later...vs a weaker trend in the H5 would have a more dramatic difference imo. The other option would be an earlier phase...which would dry slot the crap out of us but would at least avoid the lower levels torching. After the phase the surface low once it tucks and stacks will turn back northeast...if that process were to happen further south the track could still stay east of us...but again the storm would be a mess with a huge dry slot as it passed us. Our problem is the phase and tuck/stack process is happening at the exact worst spot for us. Delay that by a few hours and get this to track up or east of the bay instead of up west of it and we would have a significantly better outcome. Good read, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Look how far north, big storm stronger 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: We've talked a lot about 2/14/14 with this storm and there are certainly similarities. Even down to a northern stream s/w over the Northern Plains. But there was more spacing between them and the northern stream s/w didn't dive south and partially phase with the coastal storm, and the coastal storm stayed offshore. It had a decent antecedent airmass, but the high also wasn't locked in and the 850 temps and surface temps warmed quite a bit during the day. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2014/us0213.php 100% on all that...but notice the SLP on that storm moved NNW also...just it got off the NC first so that was a good thing. What we need is simple...a later phase and to get the whole thing further east before it happens. Problem is the system is so wound up by the time it gets to the southeast and the trough coming in is right on its heels...that's not the most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Look how far north, big storm stronger 50/50 Very little change besides that. Not sure how much that will matter when the issue is how early we’re phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Time to bring back this one Haha. Top 5 classic list for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: i mean my expectation for this la nina winter was pretty bad...and then December came lol....so yea This year is just the appetizer for next years 100" modoki nino anyways 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Big changes at 36 Granddaddy Purple? OG Chem goggles? Live resin? Might as well tell us 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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