WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, it's a little better than 0z. A little. It is. GFS/Euro blend is a solid front end for the metro corridor with 3-6". Hard to tell how much rain still, but obviously a huge dry slot. Less surface reflection west of the Apps helps concentrate the WAA right into our area, so we get a really solid 6-8 hours of snow. Hard to see that we'll get a GEFS mean like offshore track, but even one that goes Richmond-->lower DE-->ACY could be a big improvement with limited non-frozen precip while also giving us the best WAA snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Better thump, that’s all the matters. Who cares about the changeover when it’s dark and late anyway. Regardless of what falls, it looks like it'll be a precip bomb. This is a pretty juicy 1hr panel as depicted on the Euro Here's 850s at the end of that timeframe. Should be pretty interesting once mesos get into range. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much I've waited 13 years for you to make this post 5 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Is the center really going to hook NW like this? I know, I know. But really? If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW. It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, H2O said: I've waited 13 years for you to make this post I think we all have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, H2O said: I've waited 13 years for you to make this post Feeling like this is bizzaro world or something. What the hell is going on here? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Regardless of what falls, it looks like it'll be a precip bomb. This is a pretty juicy 1hr panel as depicted on the Euro Here's 850s at the end of that timeframe. Should be pretty interesting once mesos get into range. Little inch per hour snow pairs nicely wild card football. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Euro is quite a sleet bomb out here. Temps plunge Monday night and turn it all into concrete. Would be a hell of a mess as modelled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW. It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE Look at the H5 charts. The high pressure is clearly funneling the system into the coastline like how you would get a September 1938 gale up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfpackwxDC said: This what you were looking for? Yup. Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC and Euro demonstrate once again, as has been mentioned by smart folks, unless the NS backs off last minute there is not much influence to be had over the ultimate fate of the storm through other factors. That phasing is just so strong. Both models had significant jumps East with the h5 low for the first 72 hours and it really only marginally affected the storm track in the end. Even with what looks like a very nicely timed neutral tilt (could even be considered late, compared to last Monday) we can’t buy much time west of the low along 95. Just have to hope that piece is overdone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm rather stunned by the consistency of outcomes from a few days ago, especially for something with so many moving parts. I was initially thinking ops may be out of whack because the uncommon solution in the face of "ok" upper levels kept ending up inland no matter what timing difference or 500mb shift. That tells us something in the "steering" is pretty stable. Then it became more clear to me. Track has far more to do with that hallway of weakness than anything that happens before with the storm itself. This has prob been rehashed a bunch. Haven't been reading much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro is definitely wetter than the GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Some wrap around love for NOVA? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My goodness I fall asleep for ah hour and a half (while dreaming that@stormtracker made a serious post where he was fed up with our shenanigans he was gonna start layin' the mod hammer and kickin' people out)...and this is what I wake up to? Lolol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, H2O said: I've waited 13 years for you to make this post me too lol. Im enjoying you troll and making memes since you have retired and am envisioning that life so im trying to make myself a better poster! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Euro is definitely wetter than the GFS which is weird cause ususally the Euro is dryaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: me too lol. Im enjoying you troll and making memes since you have retired and am envisioning that life so im trying to make myself a better poster! if you keep it up i may actually take you off ignore 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pretty good mood in this thread all things considered. Getting 10” of snow last week probably helps things for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much Ji, you're starting to show your age, you're settling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty good mood in this thread all things considered. Getting 10” of snow last week probably helps things for many of us. i mean my expectation for this la nina winter was pretty bad...and then December came lol....so yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Ji must be high as gas 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 46 minutes ago, mappy said: Everyone needs a hard weenie in their life. ... ill see myself out Killing me 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm rather stunned by the consistency of outcomes from a few days ago, especially for something with so many moving parts. Today's 12z 12z on 1/11 Isn’t this pretty close to the Euro ensemble mean from earlier today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 28 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much Since when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Automator Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, The Ole Bucket said: Yeah is that you Lloyd?! No, but he might be reading this. He's a total weather weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 What is approximate start time on Euro for south and western DC burbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty good mood in this thread all things considered. Getting 10” of snow last week probably helps things for many of us. Looks like many will hit or be above (I'm already above) climo from this storm. By mid January. In a La Nopenotthisyeara. There's reason to be not so gloomy this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Not worried about track west of DC with a 1030 to wnw and 1030 to ne. Would love to see that ne high be 100-150 miles further west come game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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