SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Better thump, that’s all the matters. Who cares about the changeover when it’s dark and late anyway. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Better than 0z, small victories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, it's a little better than 0z. A little. all we need is an amazing front end dump before changeover and its a major snowstorm. Euro had a really nice snowy panel! and the cold air never seems to move out as fast as modeled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Anybody able to post a quick image showing the euros trends from 12z yesterday through today? Definitely seems to be moving in the right direction. I guess the question is, is there enough time to push this sucker east enough. One thing I’m fairly confident of - Winchester over to 15 and up to 81 are going to get smoked. Less confident about my area, as it seems to be a battle zone, and I-95 of course. This what you were looking for? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, it's a little better than 0z. A little. A couple more shifts like that on the H5 and we are in business... But we are talking about a second rate model now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12z/00z/yesterday 12z 500mb trend at 06z monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Is the center really going to hook NW like this? I know, I know. But really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Verbatim it’s probably 2-4/3-6” in DC metro before changeover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I asked this question in SE forum...but is this the type of setup where Winston/Greensboro, NC would do about same as DC snow-wise? Trading latitude for elevation and distance from water... Where would have the better chance of let's say 6-8" SN before mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I can wave to it as it passes my house. That L is literally 5-10 mins southwest of my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much 3 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, it's a little better than 0z. A little. It is. GFS/Euro blend is a solid front end for the metro corridor with 3-6". Hard to tell how much rain still, but obviously a huge dry slot. Less surface reflection west of the Apps helps concentrate the WAA right into our area, so we get a really solid 6-8 hours of snow. Hard to see that we'll get a GEFS mean like offshore track, but even one that goes Richmond-->lower DE-->ACY could be a big improvement with limited non-frozen precip while also giving us the best WAA snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Better thump, that’s all the matters. Who cares about the changeover when it’s dark and late anyway. Regardless of what falls, it looks like it'll be a precip bomb. This is a pretty juicy 1hr panel as depicted on the Euro Here's 850s at the end of that timeframe. Should be pretty interesting once mesos get into range. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much I've waited 13 years for you to make this post 5 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Is the center really going to hook NW like this? I know, I know. But really? If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW. It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, H2O said: I've waited 13 years for you to make this post I think we all have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, H2O said: I've waited 13 years for you to make this post Feeling like this is bizzaro world or something. What the hell is going on here? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Regardless of what falls, it looks like it'll be a precip bomb. This is a pretty juicy 1hr panel as depicted on the Euro Here's 850s at the end of that timeframe. Should be pretty interesting once mesos get into range. Little inch per hour snow pairs nicely wild card football. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The Euro is quite a sleet bomb out here. Temps plunge Monday night and turn it all into concrete. Would be a hell of a mess as modelled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: If it gets captured early as depicted on models, sadly. We’ve seen many storms like this over the years where the evolution in the south / southeast is nearly perfect, but the trough axis isn’t or we have energy capturing our low and pulling it NW. It’s going to be tough to see a low near the Carolina coastline with snow breaking out as far south as SC, just to see it get yanked NW and the mid levels get destroyed by an easterly fetch. Really hope models aren’t handling the NS correctly, but it’s hard to bank on that when every single OP run has a similar outcome. Hopefully more data by 00z tonight will help start a new and clear trend SE Look at the H5 charts. The high pressure is clearly funneling the system into the coastline like how you would get a September 1938 gale up in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: sorry when the euro shows 7-10 inches of snow in Loudoun County, im not going to complain too much 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, wolfpackwxDC said: This what you were looking for? Yup. Thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC and Euro demonstrate once again, as has been mentioned by smart folks, unless the NS backs off last minute there is not much influence to be had over the ultimate fate of the storm through other factors. That phasing is just so strong. Both models had significant jumps East with the h5 low for the first 72 hours and it really only marginally affected the storm track in the end. Even with what looks like a very nicely timed neutral tilt (could even be considered late, compared to last Monday) we can’t buy much time west of the low along 95. Just have to hope that piece is overdone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm rather stunned by the consistency of outcomes from a few days ago, especially for something with so many moving parts. I was initially thinking ops may be out of whack because the uncommon solution in the face of "ok" upper levels kept ending up inland no matter what timing difference or 500mb shift. That tells us something in the "steering" is pretty stable. Then it became more clear to me. Track has far more to do with that hallway of weakness than anything that happens before with the storm itself. This has prob been rehashed a bunch. Haven't been reading much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro is definitely wetter than the GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Some wrap around love for NOVA? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 My goodness I fall asleep for ah hour and a half (while dreaming that@stormtracker made a serious post where he was fed up with our shenanigans he was gonna start layin' the mod hammer and kickin' people out)...and this is what I wake up to? Lolol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, H2O said: I've waited 13 years for you to make this post me too lol. Im enjoying you troll and making memes since you have retired and am envisioning that life so im trying to make myself a better poster! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Euro is definitely wetter than the GFS which is weird cause ususally the Euro is dryaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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