WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Are you going to be out in WV for this one? Will pad a few inches+ on top of what falls from upslope. Going out there today until Saturday. Some upslope snow all the way through. So it looks like snow for me every day for the next few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time. I guess because all the ops have been unrelentingly consistent with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: CMC also headed the right direction That’s a more and more negative tilt. The low is already out in front of that. That will only pull it left, not right. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: To me, this setup seems pretty reminiscent of 12/16/20, just displaced a bit to the south at the start. We scoffed at the unconventional track that guidance was showing (and I believe the low did track SE of where it was progged), but it became clear that the ULL being vaulted to the north would definitely scour any cold that was present, regardless of if the LP track was "typical" or not. I've thought the same thing for a while this reminds me of that storm. Maybe we do a bit better front end but that was still a fun strom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: CMC also headed the right direction Defintely not the right direction...Pulls it more west...need it more progressive/open 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a more and more negative tilt. The low is already out in front of that. That will only pull it left, not right. He should probably stick to the snow maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, rjvanals said: I've thought the same thing for a while this reminds me of that storm. Maybe we do a bit better front end but that was still a fun strom. That was definitely an exciting/volatile storm. There's two differences that stick out to me, with one being that the 850 low was a fair bit west compared to this storm IIRC. At the same time though, the HP wasn't departing as fast, and it was a pretty serviceable airmass given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? Those individuals look east of where they are shown on other vendor maps. Maybe the map overlay is shifted west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time. Ops have been really consistent. Minor shifts and the same general idea locked in for a couple days now. IMHO- ops have lead the way here this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: CMC also headed the right direction Congrats Cleveland? A more impressive phasing each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Maybe Joe B is deleting the west tracks from his maps to make the snow mean higher for clicks..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seems the general idea has been locked in for a couple days now. We just have to hope that the WWA precip comes in hot and heavy and the mid levels can hang on for a few extra hours. A couple of hours of hanging on the mid levels could make a big difference if we are talking 1 - 2" per hour rates. All 3 major globals seem to be in step with each other with some minor differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Seems the general idea has been locked in for a couple days now. We just have to hope that the WWA precip comes in hot and heavy and the mid levels can hang on for a few extra hours. A couple of hours of hanging on the mid levels could make a big difference if we are talking 1 - 2" per hour rates. All 3 major globals seem to be in step with each other with some minor differences. Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. That makes me feel good about the setup here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe Joe B is deleting the west tracks from his maps to make the snow mean higher for clicks..... Ensemble-sharpie-gate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 No way we are at the final solution yet. For me I don’t like that it is now flying through here. When you can measure the duration by how many Netflix shows you can get in, that’s too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. I'm not looking at soundings here cause I know the entire column here will be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That makes me feel good about the setup here. you should have felt good days ago, friend. we are good. Even the hours where temps and the warm nose are being a pain, if rates are good enough, it won't matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: I'm not looking at soundings here cause I know the entire column here will be I'm sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 55 minutes ago, mappy said: I still think the low won't track that far inland. No reason other than atmospheric memory. And maybe a little weenie thrown in. Atmospheric Weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I'm sorry ITs ok!! If it does manage to move east at all I'll take it but not gonna cry over this one. This is how I feel 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Atmospheric Weenie? Works for me! 1 minute ago, H2O said: ITs ok!! If it does manage to move east at all I'll take it but not gonna cry over this one. This is how I feel lololololol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No way we are at the final solution yet. For me I don’t like that it is now flying through here. When you can measure the duration by how many Netflix shows you can get in, that’s too fast. Your in a better spot than northern MD in my opinion I guess it has to do with the location of where the low gets pulled NW but all models have a surge in the mids that cut through Central md and pulls nw up into South Central PA. I think you latitude helps you out in Winchester as the low is closer to your Lat . Before it gets pulled west. If you look at 850s all models have this carve out with Winchesters 850s staying in a better spot. I think Winchester and a bit south of there might be the best spot to be in the sub forum other than maybe the western Md/ WV mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Can't speak for out your way, but I looked at soundings on the GFS for up here, there is the most subtle warm nose at hr87, with temps at 30/31. By 90 I'm at 32, but it would probably be paste bombs. Any snow is good snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Your in a better spot than northern MD in my opinion I guess it has to do with the location of where the low gets pulled NW but all models have a surge in the mids that cut through Central md and pulls nw up into South Central PA. I think you latitude helps you out in Winchester as the low is closer to your Lat . Before it gets pulled west. If you look at 850s all models have this carve out with Winchesters 850s staying in a better spot. I think Winchester and a bit south of there might be the best spot to be in the sub forum other than maybe the western Md/ WV mountains Again, I don’t think we are seeing the end result. What looks good now could look worse later. Of course that works both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Again, I don’t think we are seeing the end result. What looks good now could look worse later. Of course that works both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Again, I don’t think we are seeing the end result. What looks good now could look worse later. Of course that works both ways. That happens a lot at the bar 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Any snow is good snow. Sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 1 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 OMG this board is on fire today! Frikin hilarious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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