baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW, CMC h5 early on is a good chunk SE/faster. Would do a lot for my optimism for a good metro thump if a model that’s been so stubbornly gung-ho about Hagerstown-Harrisburg as of late lightens up on that a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Lol never mind. Did not lighten up on that at all, phasing happens fast and swings the thing way west. Low never even gets east of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FWIW, CMC h5 early on is a good chunk SE/faster. Would do a lot for my optimism for a good metro thump if a model that’s been so stubbornly gung-ho about Hagerstown-Harrisburg as of late lightens up on that a bit. 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: Lol never mind. Did not lighten up on that at all, phasing happens fast and swings the thing way west. Low never even gets east of DC. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And that’s what he said I would hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Lol never mind. Did not lighten up on that at all, phasing happens fast and swings the thing way west. Low never even gets east of DC. Yeah the CMC is the worst case scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: it's an inland runner right now. no two ways around it. the antecedent high is in a good spot, but then moves offshore too quickly, for whatever reason. really need a less amped system. The analysis is good based on the models. No argument there. But if this was showing a perfect storm track 90 hours out we wouldn’t be saying this is locked in. Well we might say it but we’d all be expecting the next model run to crush our dreams. This time I’m going to keep expecting the next run to bring home the bacon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: I would hope so I’ll show myself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’ll show myself out It made me laugh, and I needed it. So thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? Nice cluster off the Delmarva. Riding the GEFS until 12z tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, baltosquid said: FWIW, CMC h5 early on is a good chunk SE/faster. Would do a lot for my optimism for a good metro thump if a model that’s been so stubbornly gung-ho about Hagerstown-Harrisburg as of late lightens up on that a bit. it is faster, which is better for snow prospects given the eroding high. i liked that part of the trend. many of the 90s noreasters had snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow, so this isn't really anything new. even in 93, 96 and 03 the 95 corridor switched to sleet/fzr for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: It made me laugh, and I needed it. So thanks. I provide services. Glad to help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The analysis is good based on the models. No argument there. But if this was showing a perfect storm track 90 hours out we wouldn’t be saying this is locked in. Well we might say it but we’d all be expecting the next model run to crush our dreams. This time I’m going to keep expecting the next run to bring home the bacon. oh, i'm still locked in on tracking this one lol, but starting to see some consensus that favors a more inland track instead of a wall to wall snowstorm, but we'll see...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This thing is hauling. Any change over and warmup will be short lived. Won’t be long until those winds shift back to nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, 87storms said: it is faster, which is better for snow prospects given the eroding high. i liked that part of the trend. many of the 90s noreasters had snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow, so this isn't really anything new. even in 93, 96 and 03 the 95 corridor switched to sleet/fzr for a time. snow/mix/rain back to mix/snow would be great..but this, as depicted, goes from a short bit of snow to a long bit of driving rain...not as much fun as it could be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This thing is hauling. Any change over and warmup will be short lived. Won’t be long until those winds shift back to nw Are you going to be out in WV for this one? Will pad a few inches+ on top of what falls from upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 CMC also headed the right direction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Are you going to be out in WV for this one? Will pad a few inches+ on top of what falls from upslope. Going out there today until Saturday. Some upslope snow all the way through. So it looks like snow for me every day for the next few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time. I guess because all the ops have been unrelentingly consistent with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: CMC also headed the right direction That’s a more and more negative tilt. The low is already out in front of that. That will only pull it left, not right. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 20 minutes ago, Cobalt said: To me, this setup seems pretty reminiscent of 12/16/20, just displaced a bit to the south at the start. We scoffed at the unconventional track that guidance was showing (and I believe the low did track SE of where it was progged), but it became clear that the ULL being vaulted to the north would definitely scour any cold that was present, regardless of if the LP track was "typical" or not. I've thought the same thing for a while this reminds me of that storm. Maybe we do a bit better front end but that was still a fun strom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: CMC also headed the right direction Defintely not the right direction...Pulls it more west...need it more progressive/open 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s a more and more negative tilt. The low is already out in front of that. That will only pull it left, not right. He should probably stick to the snow maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, rjvanals said: I've thought the same thing for a while this reminds me of that storm. Maybe we do a bit better front end but that was still a fun strom. That was definitely an exciting/volatile storm. There's two differences that stick out to me, with one being that the 850 low was a fair bit west compared to this storm IIRC. At the same time though, the HP wasn't departing as fast, and it was a pretty serviceable airmass given the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: FWIW at this point. I guess GEFS just sucks for this storm? Those individuals look east of where they are shown on other vendor maps. Maybe the map overlay is shifted west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Split that inner circle and you’re good. Typically we rely upon ensembles up until about this time. For some reason we are super fixated on the ops this time. Ops have been really consistent. Minor shifts and the same general idea locked in for a couple days now. IMHO- ops have lead the way here this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: CMC also headed the right direction Congrats Cleveland? A more impressive phasing each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Maybe Joe B is deleting the west tracks from his maps to make the snow mean higher for clicks..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seems the general idea has been locked in for a couple days now. We just have to hope that the WWA precip comes in hot and heavy and the mid levels can hang on for a few extra hours. A couple of hours of hanging on the mid levels could make a big difference if we are talking 1 - 2" per hour rates. All 3 major globals seem to be in step with each other with some minor differences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts