snowfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Same general outcome wrt snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 81 special; huge cutoff up 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Should be fun for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The major improvement, as others indicate, is that the 95 gets its snow and then the changeover is short and then dry. With the colder air coming in on the backside, a chance to hang on to snow/icepack. I really doubt that 15" comes close to verifying in CHO. Huge Ws for I-81 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Same general outcome wrt snow. Meh. I like this map better. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Same time Monday on TT I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing. Front end thump to rain for DC. It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now. I'm starting to feel the same. I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point. Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need. My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot. The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll be in MD for this one so hopefully it works out. Trend is clearly east at 12z so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I am sure someone will correct me and looking forward to it but shouldn't we be looking at the NAM at short range and comparing to the GFS at the same time frame to determine trends? I understand that at long range the NAM is not accurate, but I thought it was more accurate at short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Thump to slot. thats what she said 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowfan said: Same general outcome wrt snow. Over a 10 inch difference from D.C to Charlottesville. WOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Same time Monday on TT Its dark and I'll be asleep anyway.. approved! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Low a little further east than 0z, maybe? Overall its the same run, the more important part is that it doesn't go backwards from the 0z improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm starting to feel the same. I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point. Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need. My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot. The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho. One good change has been the elimination of the "torch" scenario with temps >45 for a period. Monday also looks cooler again, but still mid-30s. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm starting to feel the same. I'm trying to keep huffing the hope-ium, but I'm getting diminishing returns at this point. Still time for changes, just not sure the we can get the huge changes we need. My best case now is for a significant thump, dryslot. The stingy ass I-81 western crew still look good tho. Never did feel great about this one...I knew this one was gonna be messy...had that feeling from Monday. That's why I've been more focused to see what else pops up on the LR after this, lol That being said...as others have echoed, thump to dry slot ain't a bad consolation prize...Hope we can spin the wheel again soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So frustrating. Things start out promising, but end the same way. Nice little thump at 84. Cake is starting to cool and set. 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Despite all of the little changes across all the models, we just keep coming up with the same thing. Front end thump to rain for DC. It has looked like this for days and I really doubt it is going to change now. We've gotten a small, but noticeable shift east/south, but it's still well short of putting the metro corridor in the CCB/deform band. So the sensible weather outcome is not much different. Probably results actually in slightly less WAA thump, but gives us better odds of limiting rain before the dry slot. Also we are getting pretty close to getting a little coating back on top at the end Monday as it pulls away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Charlottesville gonna be another battleground between the precip types. Same as it ever was. Will at least be a fun one for the obs thread! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Track of the low has been pretty consistent for the past few days. Last-minute wobbles, sure, but unlikely to radically change the outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks good up here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So frustrating. Things start out promising, but end the same way. Nice little thump at 84. Cake is starting to cool and set. Climo and antecedent airmass pretty much yells standard thump to slot based on all guidance. We don't get many overhead tracks in real time. Anything is always possible of course. Just playing the odds would be a good heavy thump, mix, slot, drip, refreeze. Lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I suppose it ultimately doesn't seem to matter -- you can see it's having difficulty resolving the exact placement of the low. As others have noted, this outcome seems pretty locked regardless of exactly where the model decides the SLP is. It's looked like this for 2 days straight in one form or another. That GFS map is just the forecast radar reflectivity and placement of the surface low at that time/ Do the WB maps show the location of the surface low at that hour, while showing the average of the prior 6 hours of QPF? Can't quite reconcile the difference between the two maps. Edit: The 6-hour average map on TT looks much the same as the WB one you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Looks good up here This GFS track probably is good enough for you to add 1-2" of snow as it pulls away Monday. Maybe C-1" for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: That GFS map is just the forecast radar reflectivity and placement of the surface low at that time/ Do the WB maps show the location of the surface low at that hour, while showing the average of the prior 6 hours of QPF? Can't quite reconcile the difference between the two maps. you are totally right -- not sure why it leaps to the coast when it becomes a p-type map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Interesting that the models aren’t depicting much sleet near the rain/snow line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hey it looks like the actual fun-to-watch stuff should fall when we're awake at least for the 95 folks. I've been trying to focus on timing. If the snow turns to rain but you're asleep for it, did it really happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This GFS track probably is good enough for you to add 1-2" of snow as it pulls away Monday. Maybe C-1" for me. I still think the low won't track that far inland. No reason other than atmospheric memory. And maybe a little weenie thrown in. 3 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, mappy said: thats what she said Thank you RR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 A stronger 500mb low on the same trajectory would probably work, giving the coastal more of a dominant role, and the NAM was hinting at that outcome. Its later onset time would also mean slightly lower surface temps at p onset. There is plenty of time left for trends in the right direction. The actual outcome of the Atlantic storm will play a role, I would only consider the current 48h depictions for that to be moderately reliable. Also thinking CHO likely to be all or nearly all snow, the warm intrusion seems more likely to flow into the Potomac and MD than noVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: I still think the low won't track that far inland. No reason other than atmospheric memory. And maybe a little weenie thrown in. Come on now.... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: A stronger 500mb low on the same trajectory would probably work, giving the coastal more of a dominant role, and the NAM was hinting at that outcome. Its later onset time would also mean slightly lower surface temps at p onset. There is plenty of time left for trends in the right direction. The actual outcome of the Atlantic storm will play a role, I would only consider the current 48h depictions for that to be moderately reliable. Also thinking CHO likely to be all or nearly all snow, the warm intrusion seems more likely to flow into the Potomac and MD than noVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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