jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Thats my takeaway as well. The H5 track noticeably east from the time it rounds the corner down south. Hopefully these slight adjustments east continue today. Agreed. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that models are beginning to shift east a bit at 500mb / H5 as upper air features begin to make their way onto the CONUS for better sampling. We need to see 12z take a meaningful step in our direction so that we can say this the start of a trend, and not just fine tuning a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The storm’s issue isn’t until it reaches the Carolinas. Until then it’s perfect. PERFECT. It’s afterwards. And that has everything to do with the ns sw. When that issue is settled, we will know. Until then I don’t see how anybody can be definitive in what’s gonna happen. People have also commented on the feature in the ne and hoping it hangs around. I wonder if that is misguided also. What is happening IMO, is this is getting tugged nw from the nw and now you’ve got this stone in the river to the ne that in my view is shunting the storm even further nw. If the storm is gonna ride the coast it needs an avenue in which to do so. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 06z EPS mean snowfall would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Looks east of 0z Looks like it has wiggle room to bump east some more on future runs given the weakness and lean to the east of the slp mean center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The storm’s issue isn’t until I reaches the Carolinas. Until then it’s perfect. PERFECT. It’s afterwards. And that has everything to do with the ns sw. When that issue is settled, we will know. Until then I don’t see how anybody can be definitive in what’s gonna happen. People have also commented on the feature in the ne and hoping it hangs around. I wonder if that is misguided also. What is happening IMO, is this is getting tugged nw from the nw and now you’ve got this stone in the river to the ne that in my view is shunting the storm even further nw. If the storm is gonna ride the coast it needs an avenue in which to do so. This is why I really don't look beyond storm/no storm outside of 72 hours unless it's locked an loaded. Rounding the base has always looked "ok" but there is a flaw (bruise in the banana high in a bad spot) that isn't going anywhere. Path of least resistance (for now) is overhead and while it's uncommon, the progression makes complete sense. Not much chance for the banana high bruise to go away so now it comes down to where exactly that weakness pulls the low center. IMHO, we're prob at least a full 24 hours away from having a good handle on that piece. All this said, I absolutely do not expect a clean snowstorm anywhere near my house no matter what. But it can still be a pretty solid event even in the cities. . 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 06z EPS mean snowfall would bring DCA to near full climo for yearly snowfall. DCA measuring issues aside, if we get an inland runner as advertised, this is a situation where DC could quite possibly do better than places to the northeast (me, Baltimore, maybe even @mappy) because they're farther west and also closer to the strongest WWA thump snow. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: IMHO, we're prob at least a full 24 hours away from having a good handle on that piece. 100% 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, CAPE said: Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly. Great point. I was just thinking this as well. I am just southwest of Richmond and was applying this same logic down this way with the WAA thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: DCA measuring issues aside, if we get an inland runner as advertised, this is a situation where DC could quite possibly do better than places to the northeast (me, Baltimore, maybe even @mappy) because they're farther west and also closer to the strongest WWA thump snow. DC Winter! Doesn't matter to me, snow is snow. Just have snow fall. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I personally have this suspicion the 12z runs will be better for everyone. Looking at the ensembles and all the model data I just find it very hard to believe the cold air will erode that easy. Personally I'd take the storm being west to allow for a shift east coming into gametime 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: DC Winter! Doesn't matter to me, snow is snow. Just have snow fall. lol Matters to me. It's embarrassing to be beaten by DC 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Matters to me. It's embarrassing to be beaten by DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I personally have this suspicion the 12z runs will be better for everyone. Looking at the ensembles and all the model data I just find it very hard to believe the cold air will erode that easy. Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. Another 50-75 miles and I don't think that will be a big issue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Do the GEFS get the additional recon flight data like the GFS has been receiving? GEFS is initialized from the GFS analysis. The control for the GEFS is initialized directly from the analysis (interpolated to lower resolution). The members are then perturbed through combinations of perturbations derived from the previous GDAS cycle's short term forecast perturbations....all centered about the same control GFS analysis. So yes, recon data would impact GEFS through the GFS analysis. 4 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Another 50-75 miles and I don't think that will be a big issue Get the 500 low centered over the NC lowlands and we're golden. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: I personally have this suspicion the 12z runs will be better for everyone. Looking at the ensembles and all the model data I just find it very hard to believe the cold air will erode that easy. Personally I'd take the storm being west to allow for a shift east coming into gametime I agree with the part about the cold air. It never leaves as fas as advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There is an advantage with mixed events like this. Front side comes in hot, piles up quick, looks amazing, and as soon as sand starts hitting the windows its time to drop the subject completely and move on to something else more productive and interesting. Like kicking bunnies or something like that. 3 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Something Im sure we have all noticed on the Major models is the Low in a pretty good place in North Carolina.....then as the storm pushes north it actually pulls almost due northwest for a period of 6-12 hours.....Cant say I remember that happening ever in the past winter storms over the years. What is causing this to happen and is that a viable solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. Near surface could stay cold, but it would briefly torch in the 925-850mb range. That could actually limit the surface wind risk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just a heads up for everyone in here; I am going to be busier than a one armed coat hanger today at work so I will not have any time to look at a single model run for the 12z suite until perhaps very late in the afternoon. Might be more likely after I get off work. Too much going on. Storm wise: My thoughts have not changed on expected impacts. There will be a strong nose of warm air nestled between 850-700mb as the LLJ on the eastern side of the cyclone will be robust, approaching 2-3 StDev above normal for climo, which is impressive to say the least. I mentioned this before but the u-vector component with the wind is going to be off the charts. This is both good and bad. The good is the advection of moisture is going to be stout to the point that people are continuingly underestimating what kind of front end thump we are looking at. The 850-700mb frontogen pattern expected is bananas. 1-2"/hr snowfall rates will be COMMON with this storm on the front end. Add in the orographic ascent typical for the area and things will come in like a wall of white. WAA snows wait for no man. Despite the drier antecedent airmass in place, things will moisten up rapidly. I wouldn't even worry about that part. The bad part of the stronger u-vector component will be the mix line racing in tandem with the precip field. Things will changeover likely a little faster than what you would want, but I do feel the globals are overestimating the scouring of the SURFACE cold a bit too much. Piedmont areas, especially anywhere above 500' AGL may struggle to warm much above freezing with freezing conditions remaining out near I-81, west of the BR. This is textbook for a storm like this. What to look for: When does the storm stack? Is there an adjustment on the strength and longitudinal shift of the mean trough/ULL that develops over the Deep South? Where is the SLP located when the turn north occurs? Are there any significant trends with regards to thermals as the system arrives? What is the DEPTH of the warm nose being advected into the region? Is there a change in the speed of the N/S vort that is supposed to phase into the disturbance? These are the questions to make a checklist for. Today should shed more light on the prospects, but I feel the NAM Nest range is when things will have a better indication on the finer details, so don't worry about banding prospects until we get closer to game time. That's all I have for now. Enjoy the tracking today y'all! Hopefully there's a little bit of a SE trend to get more love to the sub 11 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, dtk said: GEFS is initialized from the GFS analysis. The control for the GEFS is initialized directly from the analysis (interpolated to lower resolution). The members are then perturbed through combinations of perturbations derived from the previous GDAS cycle's short term forecast perturbations....all centered about the same control GFS analysis. So yes, recon data would impact GEFS through the GFS analysis. My head hurts after reading this. But thanks. Always like learning from you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Check out the winds at 850 mb...screaming from the SE. That will erode cold air no problem. But that’s at the 850 mb level which you obviously know is above the low level cold. It still takes time. Can it change from snow fast. Absolutely. But to get that surface above freezing will take some doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There is an advantage with mixed events like this. Front side comes in hot, piles up quick, looks amazing, and as soon as sand starts hitting the windows its time to drop the subject completely and move on to something else more productive and interesting. Like kicking bunnies or something like that. This. I hate sleet. With a passion. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, mappy said: This. I hate sleet. With a passion. Give me 4 to 6 inches of sleet on snow and we're gonna keep a snowpack for awhile. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If the track doesn't change much, a thump and a dry slot would be a nice outcome. I can't believe given the way this winter looked that I've had 2" and 5" snows already, and have another to track! Glad it's Sunday - we fly back from Puerto Rico to BWI on Saturday. Oh BTW sunny and 84 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Give me 4 to 6 inches of sleet on snow and we're gonna keep a snowpack for awhile. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: But that’s at the 850 mb level which you obviously know is above the low level cold. It still takes time. Can it change from snow fast. Absolutely. But to get that surface above freezing will take some doing. Rules of thumb with insitu-CAD setups with bad tracks are surface is stubborn but mids fold like WFT QB's 3 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: If the track doesn't change much, a thump and a dry slot would be a nice outcome. I can't believe given the way this winter looked that I've had 2" and 5" snows already, and have another to track! Glad it's Sunday - we fly back from Puerto Rico to BWI on Saturday. Oh BTW sunny and 84 today 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts