Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:45 AM, yoda said: lulzLol what's causing all the suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’d be nice to see the panel between 96 and 120 on the meteocentre site but UKMET takes the SLP from Savannah at 96 to Central/Western Mass at 120. Seems like it’d be east of GFS/CMC at our latitude based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:47 AM, nj2va said: Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? Expand Sort of. I said that the GFS was upgraded early in 2021, while the GEFS was not. So we can therefore not treat the ops GFS as a true control run for the GEFS. As for whether to buy the inland GFS track or the more coastal track of the GEFS mean, I have no idea. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I heard sue palka is retiring...nooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:53 AM, nj2va said: It’d be nice to see the panel between 96 and 120 on the meteocentre site but UKMET takes the SLP from Savannah at 96 to Central/Western Mass at 120. Seems like it’d be east of GFS/CMC at our latitude based on that. Expand Its out on Pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:54 AM, high risk said: Sort of. I said that the GFS was upgraded early in 2021, while the GEFS was not. So we can therefore not treat the ops GFS as a true control run for the GEFS. As for whether to buy the inland GFS track or the more coastal track of the GEFS mean, I have no idea. Expand Ah, that’s right. Thanks for clarifying/the reminder. Kind of fascinating the OP went west while the GEFS went east (with more suppressed solutions). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:56 AM, Rjay said: Ukie Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:53 AM, Ji said: On 1/13/2022 at 4:45 AM, yoda said: lulz Expand Lol what's causing all the suppression Expand Yeah, that's bizarre. GEFS went east, but there are less hits for us as it seems like most are either now west or south. More of them seem south, at least the big hitters. Doesn't make sense to me given the low positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:59 AM, yoda said: Expand Yoda, just play around with this so you can see parameter you want. Good luck down there. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022011212&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:49 AM, jaydreb said: He did. But I think he also said that at that range the GEFS would be more accurate than an op. Not sure whether that is still the case at this range. Expand Around 84-96 hours the ens begin to not be as useful and we begin looking at the lr mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 5:03 AM, osfan24 said: Yeah, that's bizarre. GEFS went east, but there are less hits for us as it seems like most are either now west or south. More of them seem south, at least the big hitters. Doesn't make sense to me given the low positions. Expand Bunch of 980s east probably skewing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 5:08 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Around 84-96 hours the ens begin to not be as useful and we begin. Looking at the lr mesos. Expand If i remember correctly once we get inside that range the Ens typically more or less follow the op. Every once in a while they diverge inside that range and then maybe we take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 4:30 AM, mob1 said: Because hope springs eternal Expand Colder over Boston than Pittsburg and that’s often bad angle of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Kind of off topic just a tad but where did this mini warm up today and tomorrow come from? mon it showed straight low 30s then tuesday out of nowhere mid 40s? for me today forecast was 44 never got that 32 but tomorrow 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Cold air departing and low right on coast too warm. If high can’t do any better then need low further east. That’s a rare request Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If you’ve been doing this longer than a couple years you should know we are not even close to a solution right now. The models are chasing lows all over the place as it phases over the Carolinas. How often do we see a low in SE Virginia end up in Harrisburg? Can it happen? Absolutely. Do I have any confidence in these models right now? Absolutely not. Stop. Taking. Runs. Verbatim. They are literally cartoon depictions. The GEFS shows you firsthand how f*ked the models are right now. Plenty of time to go. The trend tonight was clearrrly SE, until, somehow, we get a 980 low in western PA. I have a feeling it’s not hurricane season anymore. Let’s see what details the Euro gives us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 5:54 AM, yoda said: Expand Bring it home Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That's a strong h5 low in W MS at 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Pretty ugly run, hopefully tomorrow brings better trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Snow approaching DC at 93 with 999 L over the Smokies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Euro takes DC from 28f at 7pm to 47f at 4 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 At least h5 runs right over us... so thump to some brief rain and dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:17 AM, Deck Pic said: Euro shifted west...Still a nice thump, but then it gets ugly for most of us... Expand All three Globals (ETA: the ones I care more about…GFS, Euro, CMC) with similar tracks at 00z. I wonder if the westward bumps are finished. I’m starting to sweat for the mountains, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I'll take my 2-4/3-6 and run. So far we've gotten lucky this winter with snow... some already nearing their seasonal averages (those S and E of DC are close to them I think). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 1/13/2022 at 6:22 AM, yoda said: At least h5 runs right over us... so thump to some brief rain and dryslot Expand This run really torches us in the DC metro. Would still be a few fun hours Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well... 00z EPS also shifted west a tad compared to 18z... but: All 50 of the members give DCA 2" of snow Around 20 members would give DCA WSW criteria snow (5"+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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