mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us: The irony is that models usually do the opposite when we want an offshore storm to move West, they chase the convection to the east and collapse the best dynamics there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 The individual members are all over the place on the 00z GEFS through 120 for snow. From misses to our NW (we rain) to 2' bombs to being missed to our SE entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: GFS Ens Mean is awfully snowy for W NC into SW VA There are many individual members that are near the benchmark. As a mean, it's almost comically different than the OP, it's unusual to such a large difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ZoomOnly 3 members west of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: The individual members are all over the place on the 00z GEFS through 120 for snow. From misses to our NW (we rain) to 2' bombs to being missed to our SE entirely Yeah, this was a step back when it comes to confidence. A little bit troubling, a little bit exciting. 18z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 lulz 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Weird to see increasing divergence on the GFS ensembles, but the op has been pretty rock solid for what seems like forever now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? He did. But I think he also said that at that range the GEFS would be more accurate than an op. Not sure whether that is still the case at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? That was definitely discussed. But even so, we still weight the ensembles more heavily until about 72 hours out from most storms. At least I’m riding that theory for another 24 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 lulzLol what's causing all the suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 It’d be nice to see the panel between 96 and 120 on the meteocentre site but UKMET takes the SLP from Savannah at 96 to Central/Western Mass at 120. Seems like it’d be east of GFS/CMC at our latitude based on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Didn’t high risk post earlier this week that the GFS OP and ensembles are basically run off two different parameters? GFS OP was upgraded but GEFS wasn’t? Sort of. I said that the GFS was upgraded early in 2021, while the GEFS was not. So we can therefore not treat the ops GFS as a true control run for the GEFS. As for whether to buy the inland GFS track or the more coastal track of the GEFS mean, I have no idea. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I heard sue palka is retiring...nooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’d be nice to see the panel between 96 and 120 on the meteocentre site but UKMET takes the SLP from Savannah at 96 to Central/Western Mass at 120. Seems like it’d be east of GFS/CMC at our latitude based on that. Its out on Pivotal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, high risk said: Sort of. I said that the GFS was upgraded early in 2021, while the GEFS was not. So we can therefore not treat the ops GFS as a true control run for the GEFS. As for whether to buy the inland GFS track or the more coastal track of the GEFS mean, I have no idea. Ah, that’s right. Thanks for clarifying/the reminder. Kind of fascinating the OP went west while the GEFS went east (with more suppressed solutions). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 17 minutes ago, yoda said: lulz Lol what's causing all the suppression Yeah, that's bizarre. GEFS went east, but there are less hits for us as it seems like most are either now west or south. More of them seem south, at least the big hitters. Doesn't make sense to me given the low positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Yoda, just play around with this so you can see parameter you want. Good luck down there. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmet&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2022011212&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, jaydreb said: He did. But I think he also said that at that range the GEFS would be more accurate than an op. Not sure whether that is still the case at this range. Around 84-96 hours the ens begin to not be as useful and we begin looking at the lr mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, that's bizarre. GEFS went east, but there are less hits for us as it seems like most are either now west or south. More of them seem south, at least the big hitters. Doesn't make sense to me given the low positions. Bunch of 980s east probably skewing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Around 84-96 hours the ens begin to not be as useful and we begin. Looking at the lr mesos. If i remember correctly once we get inside that range the Ens typically more or less follow the op. Every once in a while they diverge inside that range and then maybe we take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 59 minutes ago, mob1 said: Because hope springs eternal Colder over Boston than Pittsburg and that’s often bad angle of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Kind of off topic just a tad but where did this mini warm up today and tomorrow come from? mon it showed straight low 30s then tuesday out of nowhere mid 40s? for me today forecast was 44 never got that 32 but tomorrow 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Cold air departing and low right on coast too warm. If high can’t do any better then need low further east. That’s a rare request Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If you’ve been doing this longer than a couple years you should know we are not even close to a solution right now. The models are chasing lows all over the place as it phases over the Carolinas. How often do we see a low in SE Virginia end up in Harrisburg? Can it happen? Absolutely. Do I have any confidence in these models right now? Absolutely not. Stop. Taking. Runs. Verbatim. They are literally cartoon depictions. The GEFS shows you firsthand how f*ked the models are right now. Plenty of time to go. The trend tonight was clearrrly SE, until, somehow, we get a 980 low in western PA. I have a feeling it’s not hurricane season anymore. Let’s see what details the Euro gives us. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Bring it home Yoda! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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