Deck Pic Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Brianonymous said: I've been lurking long enough to know this is the part where you all cancel winter for the next 24hrs.. And then a model tomorrow will hail mary and hope will once again be restored I hope that model tomorrow is the one in 2 hours 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i went to the check the CMC on TT and its now running the model runs from 1/10/2022 It's running correctly now. There was some issue with it this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Brianonymous said: I've been lurking long enough to know this is the part where you all cancel winter for the next 24hrs.. And then a model tomorrow will hail mary and hope will once again be restored See you at 00z Friday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, mattie g said: Every op run we’ve had in the last 48 hours has eventually run the low to the NNW from SE VA to over DC, no matter how things looked leading into it. I’m just expecting the same will happen with future runs. It appears I was wrong and that the low can go further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hard to read the B&W maps but it looks like the CMC tracks the SLP similar(ish) to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 tomer burg with the worst tweet of the yearThis???? Not bad for i95 and east Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Seems odd to me, I would think this 00z run would produce more Ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Best case scenario for a lot of the people biting their fingernails on this one is a front end thump of 4-6 inches and then dry slot. The models have been pretty consistent with the inland track for a while now. I know we're all just desperately hoping it'll randomly come substantially east but there appears to be no signs at all that that's even a reasonable hope for this one. No doom and gloom, just seeing what's being portrayed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Hard to read the B&W maps but it looks like the CMC tracks the SLP similar(ish) to GFS. Yep, ends up in central PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I’m not giving up until Friday night. Unlikely to change much from then on. Until then? Next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Its all about the thump now most likely. Get as much as you can up front and pray for a dryslot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralVaNATS said: This???? Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: Its all about the thump now most likely. Get as much as you can up front and pray for a dryslot. I really hope not. The GFS torches me with 50 degree temperatures after it passes. Any snow that falls will melt quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: For the snow map weenies Highly doubt given the track that’s accurate. I think it’s safe to say at this point it’s going to end up a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well…….think the GEFS just said “hold my beer” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 If the models still look like this 00z Friday when the storm is onshore and we have a ton more data to sample, I’ll be much more concerned than I am now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Actually think he’s going to end up being fairly correct. I still think we end up with a storm that hugs the coast. Not the perfect area-wide MECS+ setup / track, especially for the cities, but much better than what we’re seeing on the GFS right now. This setup reminds me of several storms we saw in the early to mid 2000s which rode the immediate coastline. Snow to mix along 95 with a change to rain east of the bay, and 80+% snow for NW zones before a sleetfest Key factor could be the current fish storm setting up maybe as a 50/50 in NS and nudges it more ESent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, WxSynopsisDavid said: Well…….think the GEFS just said “hold my beer” Maps or it didn’t happen! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Tasty….that’s a big south and east shift right off the coast 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Because hope springs eternal 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Its all about the thump now most likely. Get as much as you can up front and pray for a dryslot. The way this is looking now, I’d say yes for I-95/close in burbs. But further N&W towards I-81 and west, the chance at staying all frozen is much higher. Of course, by Friday, GFS could be cutting this west of Pittsburgh, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 GEFS says “the whole sub forum can eat with this run” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Gefs went east lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, jayyy said: Pretty sure that HP off the coast of Boston is not going to be conducive of a good track after this frame. Can definitely see it cutting north right to DC Not exactly. It rides the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Canadian, moves even further NW from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Ji said: Gefs went east lol All is good with the world now. Until the EURO destroys it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Because hope springs eternal Gonna be a coastal huggerSent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: Not exactly. It rides the coast Solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Random Chaos said: Looks to me the biggest problem with the models is consolidating the low pressure in a single location. The GFS is jumping back and forth between 2 of these lows, and that seems to be what is making the sudden west jog jyst before it hits us: Random chaos, in other words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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