psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this…. Not necessarily…the low gets into southeast VA. At that time it’s snowing here. Cold airmass in place will take several hours to erode even with the SE flow. From there yea the low moves N instead of NE and eventually that warms us but until it gets up into central VA were probably ok. And once it gets to us we probably dry slot. Getting it to our south before it turns north is huge here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 There are a ton of big hits from I-95 west on the 18z EPS. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers. So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z. Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. If we get a p35 solution on an op run I’d laugh myself to death. Everyone worried about too far NW then it just whiffs SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Still think the models are not handling the northern stream energy properly. Unfortunately we might not have a better idea until tomorrow or Friday when NWS ballon soundings are conducted and the data gets ingested. Honestly this is a close call right now for a large portion of this sub forum. Either a big snow or a huge swing and miss with a mix bag. It’s like we are in the 9th inning, 3-2 count with the bases loaded. Tying run on first base, grand slam would win it. The pitcher is prime Randy Johnson and we are a rookie no name call-up from the minor leagues. I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: There are a ton of big hits from I-95 west on the 18z EPS. Yeah agreed, some BIG hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Yeah agreed, some BIG hits. Only 1 miss on the EPS, almost everything else is warning criteria snow/sleet I-95 west it seems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers. So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z. Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. Agreed Steve, can you email me a link to tonight’s zoom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. I can agree with that…but what I was saying is the current state of the model data we are 50/50 from swinging in either direction. Either the sub forum gets a big time snow or the sub forum gets a mixed bag precip event. Even with a mixed bag event, yes, 3-6 is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 18z euro control does the same thing the Gfs does. Cuts the low from Wilmington NC to Hagerstown MD. Lol. It has the same improved look at 90 as the op but it seems the more amplified SW offsets those other improvements. The storm gets to eastern NC then goes nuts. By then the confluence is gone and nothing but ridging over the top so nothing to stop it from cutting due north. The 18z Icon match the Euro and did this also. Seems there's no avoiding that track, it stays further south initially and the HP moves offshore when the low's further south and has more time to pull it back west before it gets here. We need it to trend 300 miles ENE to make a big difference which doesn't happen with disturbances tracking across the gulf coast. That's why I gave up on big snows for 95% of the area this morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this…. You’re underestimating the cold air. My guess is that many might not even switch over to rain, and if they do it would probably be brief as long as you aren’t way east of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. That's the big thing, focusing on track and tunnel visioning on the chances that the low either ends up east of the bay or in Cleveland is foolhardy. Take away 1-3 degrees in the lower parts of the column for as little as a couple hours and suddenly everyone west of the bay is looking at a potential warning or better level event. That's a good event, especially with what looks like a good pattern for the rest of January. We don't need a blizzard, just juice the thump and avoid the slop by getting put in the dry slot once we torch and this will be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers. So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z. Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. If you draw a line straight south out of dc there are more lows west of that line than at 12z. Some are west of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m probably making it sound worse than it is. The 18z euro control (and it looked very similar at 90 to the op euro so I think it’s safe to say this is about what the 18z euro was just lower resolution) was fine. Just saying given what it looked like at 90-100 hours a but shocking the low ends up over Hagerstown. But this seems acceptable Imo. We can thank the cold airmass in place for these results despite the track. For a mean, this seems pretty darn acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 DT aleet for his website crashing 2 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Regardless of the airmass, doesn’t this map just look off given the track??? I find it hard to believe with a shitty track we even receive half of this…. Although rare, there was a storm (I think 2015?) where the low went over/west of us but there was so much antecedent cold that we got mostly snow before the slot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: DT aleet for his website crashing Oh for crying out loud. Cut me a break….welcome to the party DT. Pull up a chair and get comfortable. If I had a dollar for every message I received today on my Facebook page regarding Storm specifics I could probably afford a down payment on a car 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t thunk 18z eps was west. It just was deeper due to a few more amped members and less outliers. So there was the illusion of a west shift by adding some more isobars and colors within the broader low position of 12z. The axis of the snow probabilities and means didn’t change at all and looking at the individual low plots they’re clustered about the same as 12z. Additionally there are more misses to the southeast, at least for the northwestern part of this sub, then I expected. 32, everybody eats 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant. Yeah, not sure what this discussion is all about. I can't even remember how many bad track storms dropped 3-6" around the area. They aren't rare. Many of them had much worse conditions leading in. Bad analysis. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: There are a ton of big hits from I-95 west on the 18z EPS. When looking at the individual low locations - I thought saw a cluster that I thought would show some pretty nutty totals along and west of 95. It wasn’t there on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Recon is sampling the sw again 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: If we get a p35 solution on an op run I’d laugh myself to death. Everyone worried about too far NW then it just whiffs SE I’ve seen that happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Well NAM at the end of its run has its SLP way down in S AL... so... yay? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 0z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 lol... mid teens at 81 (09z SUN) across the region on 00z NAM in lala land 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Hmmm indeed 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, yoda said: lol... mid teens at 81 (09z SUN) across the region on 00z NAM in lala land It is gorgeous. Sub freezing surface temps down into central SC. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, yoda said: lol... mid teens at 81 (09z SUN) across the region on 00z NAM in lala land Similar to 18z Euro’s temps at that time, which also had mid teens across the area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, yoda said: lol... mid teens at 81 (09z SUN) across the region on 00z NAM in lala land Euro has similar temps. Don’t think it’s off base here. That southern Alabama low is intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Hmmm indeed Every op run we’ve had in the last 48 hours has eventually run the low to the NNW from SE VA to over DC, no matter how things looked leading into it. I’m just expecting the same will happen with future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 0z NAM Look how far west it's closed off at 500 mb, if you extrapolate that it probably ends up really far west. Even compared to the GFS and Euro is significantly further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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