jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6z 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: Warmest EPS panel. Do u have the 925mb panel by any chance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: 6z If that draws complaints, then I’ve entered the twilight zone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If that draws complaints, then I’ve entered the twilight zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I think this ends up a true cutter (hello Pittsburgh) or it hugs the coast. Growing up and living my whole life at the top of the bay, I don’t remember too many storms going straight north thru dc to central pa. Just my two cents which is all it’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If that draws complaints, then I’ve entered the twilight zone I thought it was a little low but realized it’s the Ensemble. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'm kidding y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, mdhokie said: Appreciate the info, thanks! Learning more and more from listening to you experts Also, the other thing that models wouldn’t pick up on now (much more useful within 24-36H on the mesos) is the orographic enhancement in the mountains for precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Do u have the 925mb panel by any chance? I’m not seeing it on WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If that draws complaints, then I’ve entered the twilight zone Agreed…EPS has locked in… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Twilly05 said: I think this ends up a true cutter (hello Pittsburgh) or it hugs the coast. Growing up and living my whole life at the top of the bay, I don’t remember too many storms going straight north thru dc to central pa. Just my two cents which is all it’s worth. I agree with part of this. The jump location and path are not typical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 January 12th, 1996 showing up high on the list of analogs for this storm now. I've seen it on the CIPS list for the past few days. Has a pretty decent look for areas north and west of the fall line. Almost in line with my current thinking. Not as dynamic with the 5H pattern, but similar positions of the mean tough and 850mb flow pattern expected. Interesting 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Agreed…EPS has locked in… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CWG's take on Sunday.... https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/01/12/dc-winter-storm-mlk-weekend/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Twilly05 said: I think this ends up a true cutter (hello Pittsburgh) or it hugs the coast. Growing up and living my whole life at the top of the bay, I don’t remember too many storms going straight north thru dc to central pa. Just my two cents which is all it’s worth. Agreed, the track seems wacky. Time will tell tho I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol try to match the legend with that map. @mappy ain’t gonna give this a stamp of approval lol my eye twitched when he posted it without the legend I think my whole body did when he posted it with a legend that doesn't match 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: January 12th, 1996 showing up high on the list of analogs for this storm now. I've seen it on the CIPS list for the past few days. Has a pretty decent look for areas north and west of the fall line. Almost in line with my current thinking. Not as dynamic with the 5H pattern, but similar positions of the mean tough and 850mb flow pattern expected. Interesting that storm gave 2 feet at Dulles. I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 31 minutes ago, catoctin wx said: Depending on what part of Frederick you are in. I sit at 300 ft and generally do very poorly on storms that are elevation dependent yea, i could see that. this will be my first winter in frederick, so this will be a good storm to see how much that change benefits me from being basically right on the 270 split (which actually was a pretty good spot for summer storms for whatever reason). saw your other post re middletown...i pass that area en route to greenbrier state park. seems like a good spot and i'm assuming being on the west side of the catoctins helps a bit with these types of setups. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Imgoinhungry said: that storm gave 2 feet at Dulles. I'll take it! Wrong storm. That was the Blizzard of 1996 which was its predecessor. This was afterwards. They got 6-10" at Dulles from this one according to the snow data 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: January 12th, 1996 showing up high on the list of analogs for this storm now. I've seen it on the CIPS list for the past few days. Has a pretty decent look for areas north and west of the fall line. Almost in line with my current thinking. Not as dynamic with the 5H pattern, but similar positions of the mean tough and 850mb flow pattern expected. Interesting i think i'm go run errands now after seeing this post lol...just let it marinate a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: my eye twitched when he posted it without the legend I think my whole body did when he posted it with a legend that doesn't match Made me think of this (instead of "Margins! Margins!" it would be "Legends, Legends!!") 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Wrong storm. That was the Blizzard of 1996 which was its predecessor. This was afterwards. They got 6-10" at Dulles from this one according to the snow data 2 feet, followed by 10 inches. In less than a week. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: i think i'm go run errands now after seeing this post lol...just let it marinate a bit. Yea not a bad storm. Don't fuse it with 1/7/96. Good event for our locales though. Almost was like the 2/10/10 version follow up to 2/5-6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Couple thoughts/reminders for this type of storm, probably too early: 1. “WAA waits for no one”. Precip usually comes in fast and early from WAA. This is the “thump” we’re talking about. Snow growth usually is meh in this scenario (not fluffy dendrites), so ratios are typically a bit lower than 10:1. 2. The mix line (watch CC radar, hi @mattie g) is going to haul ass northward. Given the likely CAD in place, I’d wag that there will be more sleet than currently shown. That could cut down on the pretty colors on the snow maps. 3. This is a stacked and occluded low, so it will snow much closer to the storm track on the west side than is typical. Hence why even 50-80mi east could make a huge difference to snow totals. 29 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Wrong storm. That was the Blizzard of 1996 which was its predecessor. This was afterwards. They got 6-10" at Dulles from this one according to the snow data This was the storm that caused the panic on Wednesday after the blizzard because the ETA run showed over a foot of snow/sleet for the region. And this was after the clipper surprised everyone with 3-6” from DC eastward on Tuesday. By later Thursday, the models had cut back QPF so the forecast was for a moderate snow to sleet storm, not another new crippling situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 36 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: that storm gave 2 feet at Dulles. I'll take it! I was in Fairfax/Fair Oaks. The 1st storm that week gave us about 2 feet. The 2nd storm (I’m guessing that was the 12th) was about 10”-12”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Stuck at work again today. First chance I have had to look at the 12z runs. I dont want to piss anyone off but: 3 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 51 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: January 12th, 1996 showing up high on the list of analogs for this storm now. I've seen it on the CIPS list for the past few days. Has a pretty decent look for areas north and west of the fall line. Almost in line with my current thinking. Not as dynamic with the 5H pattern, but similar positions of the mean tough and 850mb flow pattern expected. Interesting There are a lot of similarities with the evolution but that 96 example started to amplify and got captured much later then guidance suggests here which is what saved the DC area relative to the cities further north. That’s why I said the weaker and further east we can get the initial SW before it gets captured and lifts the better. These can end well for DC but only if we can get the storm to the SE coast before it starts to lift north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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