mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. very Feb 2014-ish 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 DCA gets 0.9" qpf by 114... I would guess 75% of that would be snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Sign me up right now for the GEFS and Euro runs... I mean yeah 50 miles east please... but I'd take this and go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. Time in our corner still, but I would sign that contract NOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, yoda said: DCA gets 0.9" qpf by 114... I would guess 75% of that would be snow? Yeah, we probably lose the column at 4z or 5z. Not a lot of difference in freezing lines between surface, 925, 850, and 700 is not a problem, so if there is a mix, it would be a short period. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12z EPS should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Ji said: might we what PSU explained about the ICON Temps crashing under the h5 low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. Looks like .3-.4 of rain with temps spiking to low 40's at DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: very Feb 2014-ish 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. With a stacked, occluded low, you’ll get snow JUST west of the MSLP track. So yeah, wouldn’t take a lot to stay all frozen for the metros. As @psuhoffman said, the phasing of the energy on the back is really the key here. Delay that a little or have less phasing and it slides more NE instead of N. If people are bailing on this storm, they’re crazy. I want all snow, but I’d take a 4-6” thump (Hi RR!) all day and night. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Agree that US15 west looks pretty consistent to be in the big hit zone. But like EJ just said, only 50 miles east on the shift and its a major hit bay and west with those 12-24" totals over the NW burbs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Thump, mix, dry slot. Can’t tell how long it rains with the 6 hour maps, but I’d guess not a ton. I feel like we've seen this script before so many times. But 6 hours of snow, with a couple 1-1.5"/hr rates before the flip, and overall averaging ~0.75+"/hr for that 6+ hour period = ~4-6" for a lot of us beltwayers before *hopefully* a flip to dry slot heavy drizzle vs. pouring rain. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll certainly take that run and...run. But that odd-looking warm nose through Hagerstown into S. PA seems to be knocking the totals down in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Wonder if we see this thing trend a bit weaker as we near and maybe not as wound up? Would mean a further east trend. It's happened before. I know @Ellinwood talks about satellite ingestion of data has improved D5+ scores, but a weenie can hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: With a stacked, occluded low, you’ll get snow JUST west of the MSLP track. So yeah, wouldn’t take a lot to stay all frozen for the metros. As @psuhoffman said, the phasing of the energy on the back is really the key here. Delay that a little or have less phasing and it slides more NE instead of N. If people are bailing on this storm, they’re crazy. I want all snow, but I’d take a 4-6” thump (Hi RR!) all day and night. Lol, talk dirty to me @WxUSAF. I agree 1,000% with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 500 low goes over us, rather than over Cleveland, so that's probably good. Yea but aren’t we comparing this to the previous euro not the Gfs? This was the 0z euro. It was never showing the h5 west of us like the Gfs. So if your bar for this was the Gfs ya it’s better. But I was comparing it to previous euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro also has more phasing with the energy on the backside. That’s probably the worst part. As others have said if you look at 84 hours and only at what’s happening in the southeast and northeast it looks great. What really goes wrong after is what happens up over the Midwest with that energy diving in and phasing. That’s why this suddenly pulls due north v taking a more typical northeast trajectory. that kind of phasing is typically hard to model that far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like DCA is still snow at 114... but barley? I prefer hops 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 There's nothing to drive it north inland, it will redevelop off the coast pretty far south It's not a very cold storm though, but likely snow NW I-95. -NAO, Pacific is favorable.. This H5 is not an inland runner. Pacific ridge is peaking north.. the Low in Canada may even phase more. 108 is big adjustments still. -NAO storms gravitate toward the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but aren’t we comparing this to the previous euro not the Gfs? This was the 0z euro. It was never showing the h5 west of us like the Gfs. So if your bar for this was the Gfs ya it’s better. But I was comparing it to previous euro runs. Yeah, I just didn't want to see a big move to the GFS solution. I'd take the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Euro seems to be the best case scenario right now. Low end warning snow/sleet then dry for I-95 immediate suburbs, big storm US 15 west. EDIT: Give it a 50 mile east shift and everybody wind bigly. I’m less than 5 miles west of 15 in Frederick so I approve this message, but still rooting for a nudge east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Temps in the Mid to upper 20's at onset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still early, but gotta say I’m impressed how everything has been trending towards the GFS once again. It was the first to sniff out this inland track and ensembles and European seem be playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but aren’t we comparing this to the previous euro not the Gfs? This was the 0z euro. It was never showing the h5 west of us like the Gfs. So if your bar for this was the Gfs ya it’s better. But I was comparing it to previous euro runs. Yea its basically in line with the GFS on 12z, but 0z was a perfect pass. As expected given the outcome we saw on the 2 runs. if we knew the GFS/Euro was as far west as this is going to go, we'd be in an even better spot. But a small east shift and its big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not perfect matches, obviously, but that negative tilt over the southern plains to a bowling ball over DC is a good match for Jan. 2011 commuteaggedon. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CWG just posted on FB that there should be a briefing on the upcoming storm (probably including Wes again) coming out about 2:30PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: I’m less than 5 miles west of 15 in Frederick so I approve this message, but still rooting for a nudge east. Same, I'm about 8 miles west of 15 up in CV. I don't mind it nudging 50 miles east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I've resigned myself to some rain but would like the low a bit further east to keep from torching into the low 40's. This is a great run if your looking to ski at Whitetail on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Man, the things I'd do for a last minute trend east to keep everyone west of the bay as some form of frozen. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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