ravensrule Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: RR is gonna love this I'm not used to dealing with such small storms, so i will leave it to you to explain that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty decent jump in snowfall map for DC on GEFS FWIW. 6z Pretty unusual for the ensembles to have a higher snow output then the operational when focusing in on a particular time frame 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Lol this is so close to some classic storms in the 84-102 hour time frame. This could trend really good. Was just reading some of the info @WVclimosent me on the 96 storm. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 P14 and a side of fries. Still some really big hits mixed in there for sure. Will be interesting to see how guidance trends today and tomorrow.Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm not so sure. One thing most guidance is really hearing on is the deep and strong 925mb SE ripping flow. I suppose a cleaner transfer, weaker sw, and track of the sw under us rather than over the big cities could help keep flow vectors with less of a SE component, but that ll jet is sticking out like a sore thumb. Let's nudge that weaker sw under us and take our chances. loll "we" can't do anything and just hoping for different things to happen on a computer model isn't the reality of the situation Ralph come on!! There's a strong consensus here of what's going on and it's clear as day this is NOT a PHL area special. I remember days ago people were like oh no the models are wrong it's so darn cold this has to be snow! No, it's not wrong. The models show what they show because it reflects reality. This forum and the south east forum stands to have some winners. Us foreigners will not cash this one out. Root for our southern brothers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol this is so close to some classic storms in the 84-102 hour time frame. This could trend really good. Was just reading some of the info @WVclimosent me on the 96 storm. Honestly, I have a better feeling about things than I had yesterday. I mean even with just a 40 mile adjustment east we can do a LOT better. And that is definitely not far fetched within the next 4 days of model runs. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Discussion of the models’ performance (with some 20th century maps) leading into Jan 1996, from pgs. 19-30https://www.weather.gov/media/publications/assessments/bz-mrg.pdfI can't get this file to open?Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: I can't get this file to open? Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk It’s a PDF file. May need a reader if your browser doesn’t open it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ukmet looks in line with most other guidance now. 3 to 5 in the Balt/wash corridor. 6 to 12 to the west. Winchester crew will really like the UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Pretty unusual for the ensembles to have a higher snow output then the operational when focusing in on a particular time frame Keep what @high riskrisk said yesterday in the front of your mind about the gfs op and its respective ens control and suite. They currently do not run on the same physics so even the gefs control really has no good analysis comparison to the gfs op. Basically treat them separately when they diverge 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: P14 and a side of fries. Still some really big hits mixed in there for sure. Will be interesting to see how guidance trends today and tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk and still a couple SS's...can't complain about that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It’s a PDF file. May need a reader if your browser doesn’t open it ?I even tried opening it outside of Taptalk in Chrome, i get a nws page saying it doesn't exist Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Ukmet looks in line with most other guidance now. 3 to 5 in the Balt/wash corridor. 6 to 12 to the west. Winchester crew will really like the UKMET 500 track is just SE of DC (a line from RIC to PHL) which helps too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'll take the 988mb off Fenwick Island ftmfw Alex, ty Ah, good old Fenwick. Many family vacations there in the 1950s and '60s. The 2-lane coastal highway was the only paved road (other than the Rt. 54 access of course.) The beach towns were fantastic before the population explosion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: I even tried opening it outside of Taptalk in Chrome, i get a nws page saying it doesn't exist Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk Try safari Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol this is so close to some classic storms in the 84-102 hour time frame. This could trend really good. Was just reading some of the info @WVclimosent me on the 96 storm. I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95. I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually. The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump. Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts. There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also. Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. 16 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Honestly, I have a better feeling about things than I had yesterday. I mean even with just a 40 mile adjustment east we can do a LOT better. And that is definitely not far fetched within the next 4 days of model runs. This has a lot of cold on top and in front of it and that makes it a lot easier to get a better result. Giving up on this now is silly. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95. I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually. The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump. Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts. There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also. Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. This has a lot of cold on top and in front of it and that makes it a lot easier to get a better result. Giving up on this now is silly. Well I’m not predicting historic lol. But I’m not saying it can’t be either. Totally serious here. Many of these models are getting this thing to an absolutely classic spot. What happens after is still very much up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 In 96 i remember calling the weather hotline everyday starting 4 days before the storm (I was 9 lol). But day 4 was 1-3 inches. Day 3 was 3-6 inches. Day 2 was 6-12 inches. Day 1 was 18-24 lol. So here is hoping this one breaks that way! I might call that hotline right now 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think we’re still in the game for a very significant storm but I don’t think this has HECS 20”+ potential for 95. I don’t think anyone is expecting that. We have a -NAO but not a true block. 95 really does need a classic block usually to get those storms. Also what’s going on across Canada isn’t ideal for those hecs storms. The trough amplifying there will pull this north. To get a hecs we typically want the storm cut off from the NS there and higher pressure over the top. That’s when we get a storm to crawl to off the Delmarva then slide ENE. This is going to lift north pretty sharply. This will be a storm that runs the coast. Kinda old school, these used to be way more common than recently. And they can be pretty good but not 20” good in DC usually. The key will be how far southeast we can get the H5 before it gets captured and lifts north and how much resistance the cold can make to get a really nice WAA thump. Any deform is bonus. The 2014 storm was this type. One of the 1987 storms was and worked out to like 10” in DC. There was a similar storm to this evolution in 66 that was good in DC. There are also examples where this can go wrong if the h5 gets captured too soon. That’s why faster is better. Get it into the southeast before the trough amplified and it lifts. There were 2 storms in 1994 that remind me of this also. Early January and one in early March. Those were more ehh with like 2-4 in DC and a lot more west. This has a lot of cold on top and in front of it and that makes it a lot easier to get a better result. Giving up on this now is silly. If we can get 6" - 10" with no rain, it'll be a win. Sleet/ZR, that's fine. Just don't want to wash the snow away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 While we wait and because everyone is here, we’ve stopped watching but what about the biblical storm that’s gonna hit the maritimes? Damn the wind with that is gonna be unreal. Look at those isobars lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well I’m not predicting historic lol. But I’m not saying it can’t be either. Totally serious here. Many of these models are getting this thing to an absolutely classic spot. What happens after is still very much up in the air. Yeah, one thing I will say is historic is probably off the table for our area, and I'm good with that. It's fair to move goal posts. 3 to 6 before the slopshop is workable for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, nj2va said: 500 track is just SE of DC (a line from RIC to PHL) which helps too. This is potentially my first big storm out west (missed dec'20). What are we looking for as good/bad? I see there is a sharp cutoff in amounts as you head west into north wva, does warm sector form out there? How much you thinking for the mountains? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: While we wait and because everyone is here, we’ve stopped watching but what about the biblical storm that’s gonna hit the maritimes? Damn the wind with that is gonna be unreal. Look at those isobars lol I've been paying close attention, since I'll be relocating to eastern New Brunswick. They just had a pretty impressive storm with 80km winds and over a foot of snow in 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CMC is so slow, but does not give me any assurances at 102. It is so slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro looks okay through 60... Lol nukes the Friday storm up in the NE... wtf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: CMC is so slow, but does not give me any assurances at 102. It is so slow. Probably safe to say CMC is going to be our least favorite 12z model… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Probably safe to say CMC is going to be our least favorite 12z model… I'm surprised the Pivotal maps are that poor -- the run obviously sucks, but it looked a bit better straight from the proverbial horses mouth (Environmental Canada) -- https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: CMC is so slow, but does not give me any assurances at 102. It is so slow. A lot of heavy rain https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rhode Islander in Balto said: I've been paying close attention, since I'll be relocating to eastern New Brunswick. They just had a pretty impressive storm with 80km winds and over a foot of snow in 12 hours. whoa! That's VERY different from Parkville. Good luck up there and enjoy! Jealous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Euro at 72 h5 is slower than 0z and a bit deeper with our s/w over KS on the 12z. However, the NE energy from the low bombing is a good bit SW of last run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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