SnowLover22 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Short Pump does well lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This is still evolving and I think the place it may go is toward our more classic snowstorms. The NAM and ICON are steps toward that. And if the cold air damming is more potent, even more so. That low transfers to Norfolk or the outer banks and it’s … 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The Pivotal map seems low... this is what I get from WxBell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: The Pivotal map seems low... this is what I get from WxBell. Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Ji said: GFS for now went a hair east but hopefully its a start of the stopping of the west trend Could be a good trend starter as the windshield wipers are potentially about to swish the other way. Should be an interesting day ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Good shift for S MD. Funny it has the exact same purple blob E of DC as the ICON snowmap. Sorry for the rookie question, but 03z is 10pm eastern time, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That WAA snow will be a beast. Have fun Sunday afternoon/evening watching that rip, have some drinks and watch football, and go to bed before it flips. Great day! 12 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Sorry for the rookie question, but 03z is 10pm eastern time, right? Correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said: Sorry for the rookie question, but 03z is 10pm eastern time, right? Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Sorry for the rookie question, but 03z is 10pm eastern time, right? Correct. ETA: Doobla ninja'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Kuchera Even non-Kuchera it's a bit low. Only noticed because of my focus on CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Short Pump does well lol. More snow in DC than Leesburg - works for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: That WAA snow will be a beast. Have fun Sunday afternoon/evening watching that rip, have some drinks and watch football, and go to bed before it flips. Great day! What I am fully planning to do. Would be an awesome day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was mainly focused on seeing the trend towards a slower, further west, and stronger h5 SW in the Tenn Valley stop and it did. This was the first run where that trended back towards what we want...not far enough but at least a halt in a trend that wasn't going to end well if it continued. The flow up top was a little better in front but again of the 3 factors here I think that is the least influential. If I had to rank what is most going to determine the outcome with this its 1) the strength and speed of the SW. Faster and a little weaker is better. 2) the energy diving in behind and how much it phases and or tugs the system to the NW and 3) the flow ahead of it with the departing ocean storm and TPV lobe to our northeast. At hour 90 I did see improvement from factors 1 and 3. 1 needs to continue to improve though, the GFS still has it amplifying and a bit too slow so that it can lift north a bit before we want but at least it didnt continue to get worse like the last 5 runs did progressively each time. Of course if the energy diving in behind continues to trend worse it will offset any minor favorable trends in other areas and it wont matter. Just my 2 cents. The ns sw is a little delayed and a little weaker this time. The separation between it and the closed low is more. We have a long way to go on this. Gotta believe that the reality will be different from what we are seeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I was mainly focused on seeing the trend towards a slower, further west, and stronger h5 SW in the Tenn Valley stop and it did. This was the first run where that trended back towards what we want...not far enough but at least a halt in a trend that wasn't going to end well if it continued. The flow up top was a little better in front but again of the 3 factors here I think that is the least influential. If I had to rank what is most going to determine the outcome with this its 1) the strength and speed of the SW. Faster and a little weaker is better. 2) the energy diving in behind and how much it phases and or tugs the system to the NW and 3) the flow ahead of it with the departing ocean storm and TPV lobe to our northeast. At hour 90 I did see improvement from factors 1 and 3. 1 needs to continue to improve though, the GFS still has it amplifying and a bit too slow so that it can lift north a bit before we want but at least it didnt continue to get worse like the last 5 runs did progressively each time. Of course if the energy diving in behind continues to trend worse it will offset any minor favorable trends in other areas and it wont matter. Just my 2 cents. I guess I'm not seeing what you are seeing flipping back and forth between runs. If I were placing the 500 low I'd be inching it even a bit further west from 06z, at least by the time it gets to Cleveland. The big "win" on the 12z run, however, is that the GFS did juice up the front end. This is all about what we can get before the screaming 850 jet (85kts!) gets us by 00z Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I think folks should pay attention to precip totals and not so much snowfall maps. With the mixing possibilities, those snowfall maps aren't going to be correct. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Parsing through some of the details, this run is very similar to the current NBM result from this AM, and it also jives with the CIPS run from last night in terms of impacts and evolution of the precip field. There's differences in the strength of the low compared to a blended mean and analog pattern, which lends credence to a pretty sizeable thump off a significant 700mb frontogen depiction, then a flip to sleet/rain for areas east of Rt 15. I-81 corridor is going to be close, but some sleet likely gets west of the BR, but could easily change back to snow on the back end of system. It's overall not a terrible run for west of the bay and certainly better than last nights 06z run. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Compared to WB 6Z… 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: Compared to WB 6Z… Nice map. Shows the improved solution 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: People looking at the sfc reflection more than the h5. That h5 track doesn’t look great. Actually, I think people were looking at H5 and commenting about how that looked slightly better. No one was saying it looked like a bomb incoming for DC - just small changes to what was a consistently worse look in the last 24-36 hours. Subtle changes up top may well mean small enough changes at the surface to make this a more palatable storm for many, and commenting on those shouldn't be derided. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ns sw is a little delayed and a little weaker this time. The separation between it and the closed low is more. We have a long way to go on this. Gotta believe that the reality will be different from what we are seeing. I wish the ridge out along the west coast was more east. All these variables making big differences on NS placement, confluence, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 35 minutes ago, Ji said: Guys, whatever we get...its way better than what it looked like a few days ago when we were getting a dusting while Durham was getting 20 inches. I feel like we stole snow that we werent really suppose to get so im good with 4-8 and then mix i thought about relocating to charlotte last summer. that would have been at least mildly annoying. i like frederick for fringe events, though i'd probably just get a delayed switch here if the low tracks too far west. i'm prob in a similar geo as leesburg, if i had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Yeoman said: More snow in DC than Leesburg - works for me I'll take another 6" in mid-January. Certainly is better than the last few years! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Even east of the the i95 cities may get a nice ~6+ hour period of snow according to much of the guidance, with at least a good chunk of that moderate or heavy. It’ll make for a fun evening. Love how a 3-6” event is amazing if we’re snow starved but terrible if we’re not. When’s the last time we were under a flood watch or warning and WSW at the same time? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 You all may have touched on this already... The best case for us along/near the I95 corridor is a WAA thump that transitions to a light sleety/rain mix, or even better, drizzly dry slot, so the rain doesn't wash all the snow away. We've seen setups like this over the past several years, where that heavy rain phase doesn't come to fruition because of the timing of the transfer and a more pervasive dry slot than what was originally advertised 5 days out. I'll gladly take 4-6" of a WAA thump followed by drizzle. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Compared to WB 6Z… Plenty of time for a few more shifts that could put all of us in the pink cotton candy zone….though….all I really care about is Hagerstown, Short Pump, and Carbondale. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 One small feature I’ve noticed this morning is the vorticity streamer oriented E-W between our shortwave and the upper low in New England and Atlantic Canada. On my phone so can’t post a graphic, but it shows up very clearly at 84hrs on the GFS, NAM, and Icon through the Great Lakes. Seems like it does help lower heights ahead of the storm. Not sure yet how much it may shift things, because it’s a subtle feature, but I’m going to watch that today. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’d love to see the maps and setups leading into 1996, 2003, 2010 at about 36/48 prior. Anybody got any maps or links? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: You all may have touched on this already... The best case for us along/near the I95 corridor is a WAA thump that transitions to a light sleety/rain mix, or even better, drizzly dry slot, so the rain doesn't wash all the snow away. We've seen setups like this over the past several years, where that heavy rain phase doesn't come to fruition because of the timing of the transfer and a more pervasive dry slot than what was originally advertised 5 days out. I'll gladly take 4-6" of a WAA thump followed by drizzle. Yup, I think that’s very much on the table. I think that’s pretty close to what last nights euro showed for many of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I guess I'm not seeing what you are seeing flipping back and forth between runs. If I were placing the 500 low I'd be inching it even a bit further west from 06z, at least by the time it gets to Cleveland. The big "win" on the 12z run, however, is that the GFS did juice up the front end. This is all about what we can get before the screaming 850 jet (85kts!) gets us by 00z Monday. I was looking between hours 72 and 90. After that the storm lifts due north which is obviously not what we want and looks pretty identical to the previous run. But before that I did see some improvements. If I see something better at hour 72 or 90 I take that as a positive even if things go sideways after that. IMO the very minor improvements weren't enough this run to have much impact later on, but if that were to continue eventually it would. If we can get that upper low slightly less amplified and further southeast before it starts to feel the influence of the energy diving in behind which sharpens the trough and it starts to lift north we will be in better shape. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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