psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 hours ago, Snowchaser said: Southern forum right now I’m sure they will be ok. Anyone who lives a place that has a median snow of 5” can’t care about it THAT much! And anyone who gets that upset when something that only happens like once every 10 years doesn’t happen has bigger problems. keep in mind the New England sub thinks this way about us! 10 hours ago, Ravens94 said: Not a good trend I’ve been saying the bigger factor in what was changing was happening to our west not to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Maximize the WAA and hope for dryslot. Euro is a very substantial storm even for the cities. Yes it won’t be a clean storm for the fall line and east but as it stands now, still a WSW criteria storm. Not sure why the gloom. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: to be honest, i don't give a shit what happens in ellicott city but you don't hear me saying not to discuss it. I am laughing so hard, best laugh all week, and you are the moderator. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: Maximize the WAA and hope for dryslot. Euro is a very substantial storm even for the cities. Yes it won’t be a clean storm for the fall line and east but as it stands now, still a WSW criteria storm. Not sure why the gloom. Agreed, but panels like this bring a bit of gloom for me - especially if it's dumping rain at this hour. Agree, in the metro areas, we hope for dryslot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Agreed, but panels like this bring a bit of gloom for me - especially if it's dumping rain at this hour. Agree, in the metro areas, we hope for dryslot It really won't matter if you dryslot or not with those temperatures. Your snow will be gone almost as soon as it ends. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well, that's like 99.999999% of the people. No offense, but no one really cares what it does in Hagerstown. Well, maybe the 5 people that live there do. Good with fractions I see. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'll be happy if it snows with WAA as projected late sunday afternoon --> evening before the changeover once it's dark. Waking up to a slush/melted mess on Monday would be lame, but can't win em all, especially inside the beltway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: First, looking below there are plenty of hits that would make everyone happy. Too early for anyone to be too hopeful or depressed. Secondly, Frederick is the second largest city in MD. WB 6Z EPS. Alot of nice hits in there. Alot of nice outcomes for areas further east also. Let's hope the Gfs is to amped and comes back to what most other guidance is showing right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Good with fractions I see. It's been proven that 4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions and math. 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, mappy said: to be honest, i don't give a shit what happens in ellicott city but you don't hear me saying not to discuss it. Do you have Venmo? I’ll pay for this one. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's been proven that 4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions and math. That’s on my wall lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 49 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: This progression should remind everyone that the models out in the D7+ range are only rough guides of what *may* happen. This thing has become a completely different situation from a day or two ago. Hand wringing over longer range models should be limited to the general H5 pattern at most. Still time to get some adjustments for this one - but not looking great at the moment. It's the business. ETA: I know everyone always likes to say "we all know this" - but a lot of you all still seem to take long range modeling as if it's guaranteeing you snow. We've all gotta start to take the @Bob Chill - approach and just try to care less. It's a bummer when we miss but just take the wins and then the losses will be losses. To be fair, no one has missed, won, or lost on this storm yet. That is good thinking when the outcome has become obvious, but with all the changes in the last 2 days worth of model runs, who is confident they know the final outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Do you have Venmo? I’ll pay for this one. lol i do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, mappy said: to be honest, i don't give a shit what happens in ellicott city but you don't hear me saying not to discuss it. 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: We care. And we don't really care if you don't. I don’t recall any of us acting like this when we were looking at partly cloudy and bare ground last week. Sure we wanted it to be better, we pulled hard for it, but we didn’t begrudge anybody their snow and fun. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I believe most of us understand the problems up north and northeast. At least we can be thankful that we don't have an OTS southern slider. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 00z runs last night shed a bit more light on what to expect for certain areas, but there's still some question marks to be answered in the overall evolution. Looking at the GFS and ECMWF, there's a distinct period at the end of the storm that bares watching for trends that could save some areas that experience a quicker changeover during the storms height. As of now, the GFS does not have as pronounced a comma head to the precip and any that does develop is off to the NW into PA and perhaps towards the Alleghany front. The ECMWF otoh has a pretty significant back play of the deformation zone that sweeps back east as the low occludes to the north and drifts NE. This is a period where snow can pile up quickly due to increased forcing on the backside of the low within the deformation zone. The DZ often has the best ratios for snowfall due to the prevailing dynamics at play with a robust mid-level frontogen signature and funneling CCB classic with a prevailing SLP in the development stage. This is partly why the snowfall is pretty solid on the ECMWF despite the proposed changeover. Two factors here are important for this to occur: 1) The SLP has to be away from the BR as backside flow from the W/NW would induce down-sloping off the Apps and create a cull in the precip on the underside of the low. A low further east towards the bay has more room to alleviate those concerns, which we have seen in the past. 2) The low needs to continue on a development phase into at least SoPA for this to become a possibility. An occlusion early would incur a persistent warm fetch off strong SE flow. This is less likely to occur as model guidance has now, but something to monitor. A passage of the ULL to the south is what we want. A passage overhead may provide a period of ascent locally under the attendant ULL, allowing for a switch from liquid/IP to snow before the snow shuts completely off. The path of least resistance to scoring would be for the low to pass to the south. Any pass south of Rt 50 would likely yield a fruit of at least 2 hrs of solid snowfall as heights crash and we get a top-down shift in the ptype. Think what happened in 1/26/11...This storm will have a similar ULL strength, so the prospects are there, but the evo right now as progged is off. ULL's are tricky. They can change their paths on a moments notice depending on a multitude of variables, but most notably the proxy of other s/w features that could aid/hinder the height pattern near and downstream of the prevailing longwave trough. Moral to the story, there is a lot we still don't know, some we have a general consensus on, and some mesoscale details that will be fine tuned in the future. NAM 3km will actually be VERY useful this storm. It did a great job on the transition zone in a myriad of events with the most notable being March 2017. Remember, with the HP to the NE, the u-vector component of the wind field will be very robust, so the intrusion of warm air could be tough to overcome, especially east of the fall line. As for areas that can hold off the climo factor of screaming easterlies, that is our I-81 gang. That's why I would wager, for the time being, they will be the benefactors for snow, but high impacts along the transition zone to the fall line are still likely. Temperatures will struggle at the surface for elevations above 500'. Same song and dance, so keep the faith and know a meteorological marvel will probably unfold before our eyes on Sun-Mon. As a meteorologist with absolutely no skin in this game, I will be watching satellite and wishing I was back home. Synoptic meteorology has a special place in my heart. 14 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Way too early for absolutes obviously. But for those of us west of the Blue Ridge we should be pretty confident at this point that we are gonna get hammered. A track west of the mouth of the Bay will mix even out here. But regardless of the model we get wrecked. Make up storm for us after the first storm debacle. Lol, you’ve locked up some “crushed” events for us before that didn’t. I know it doesn’t matter but I like having fun with this stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It really won't matter if you dryslot or not with those temperatures. Your snow will be gone almost as soon as it ends. Not where I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Obviously, everyone is looking for that first sign this will tick east. Confluence to the NE, the diving energy on the backside of the storm but one other factor could be a weaker ULL in general. The 06 eps shows this to be the case vs 00z. The control shows it nicely...weaker ULL but same track produces a slp 30-40 east of 00z and doest hook back nearly as much. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Obviously, everyone is looking for that first sign this will tick east. Confluence to the NE, the diving energy on the backside of the storm but one other factor could be a weaker ULL in general. The 06 eps shows this to be the case vs 00z. The control shows it nicely...weaker ULL but same track produces a slp 30-40 east of 00z and doest hook back nearly as much. I noticed that on the 06z euro at 90. Seemed like it was weaker than the gfs and could of potentially yielded a better outcome for areas further east. It's dangerous to speculate sometimes but didn't look as amped as what the gfs is showing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol, you’ve locked up some “crushed” events for us before that didn’t. I know it doesn’t matter but I like having fun with this stuff. Yeah. I am not really locking this one up. But I do think a slider is off the table. I am definitely worried about mixing with a track up the coastal plain though. Either way I think everyone on this board is going to see snow from this one. I am also leaning toward everyone seeing mixing with it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, stormy said: I believe most of us understand the problems up north and northeast. At least we can be thankful that we don't have an OTS southern slider. Agreed - we definitely need the rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: But I do think a slider is off the table. Now you've gone and done it... lock in the slider. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Going forward today I think the key piece to watch is that ns dropping in over the Dakotas. On the last gfs it was actually delayed but stronger and deeper. I don’t know much but I know we don’t want that piece deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I am not really locking this one up. But I do think a slider is off the table. I am definitely worried about mixing with a track up the coastal plain though. Either way I think everyone on this board is going to see snow from this one. I am also leaning toward everyone seeing mixing with it as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Warm Nose said: Nah. That is only for Ellicott City. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Going forward today I think the key piece to watch is that ns dropping in over the Dakotas. On the last gfs it was actually delayed but stronger and deeper. I don’t know much but I know we don’t want that piece deeper. If you noticed... each run that piece has been more north and west... that is what I have been keying on to see the trend early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Good morning! So how much for Hagerstown? 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Randy should've known better than to start a thread for a D6 event in a La Nina year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: If you noticed... each run that piece has been more north and west... that is what I have been keying on to see the trend early. Yes I saw that and think it would help. But I think it being deeper would offset that possibly. The origin of that piece makes me think it may play less of a role going forward because those are the ones often overdone at range. I guess we will find out soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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