psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 hours ago, Ji said: 9 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Man if only the icon was right lol. What a run that was. The blue seems suspect so close to the storm track but german engineering I know this is way late but my mornings are early and crazy so I actually sleep at night now. But on that icon run (and it’s something to watch for in general) is a fully matured cyclone with a surface low vertically stacked under the mid and upper level lows. That’s why the WAA cuts off to the west of the track and the rain/snow line is so close to the low. The down side to that is often a storm will start to develop nasty dry slots in the cold sector since that also cuts off the deep moisture transport and so the banding becomes mostly lift and dynamics induced. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon looks amazing if you are in Hagerstown area. They are getting crushed. Those to the east are likely getting flurries or snow showers. High ratio stuff for sure, but nothing much going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Most important runs in model tracking history today? Looking at the gfs the only real difference I saw the last several runs is where that 50/50 blocking low ends up. In the better solutions it was further north and west, which seems to keep the hp over top from weakening/moving east so quickly. Still a few too many moving parts to know which scenario is the highest probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WB EPS at 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 114 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 120, east of GFS, added 9Z for comp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: 114 Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 High pressure wayyyy off to Eastern north Atlantic. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 We should take these 06z EPS and run because I am not sure it gets better than that with all things considered 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Unfortunately... all Hail King GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now. that would be awesome if that high was locked in and west about 150 miles...but its not...so its not awesome...its the opposite of awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 This progression should remind everyone that the models out in the D7+ range are only rough guides of what *may* happen. This thing has become a completely different situation from a day or two ago. Hand wringing over longer range models should be limited to the general H5 pattern at most. Still time to get some adjustments for this one - but not looking great at the moment. It's the business. ETA: I know everyone always likes to say "we all know this" - but a lot of you all still seem to take long range modeling as if it's guaranteeing you snow. We've all gotta start to take the @Bob Chill - approach and just try to care less. It's a bummer when we miss but just take the wins and then the losses will be losses. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It is good for the North and Western suburbs, and it is better than the GFS for everyone. WB 6Z EPS and Control 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Ugly. Almost ever low is onshore now. The banana high pressure structure to the North totally collapses in a period of 24 hours. Dissapointing. As Bob Chill stated we were at 2 for 2 , but luck has to stop , so I think this one is going to be a loss for the coastal plain. Amazing too, how intense the cold is Sunday morning and then how quickly we warm up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not ideal as depicted. The lows and highs are pretty much all in the wrong places up north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 hours ago, Interstate said: Cleveland? Steamer 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Storms going to change a bunch over the next 2 days. No point in stressing over the models. We’ve seen major shifts 48hrs out so many times in the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 It feels like all of the people who live in this direction -> are the ones driving the current conversation 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: One thing has become clear with this system....it will not be a flush clean hit for the big cities along i95....that much I think we can say with certainty at this point. and not be suppressed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow General Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I'd take the 06z EPS in a heartbeat 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It feels like all of the people who live in this direction -> are the ones driving the current conversation Well, that's like 99.999999% of the people. No offense, but no one really cares what it does in Hagerstown. Well, maybe the 5 people that live there do. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Way too early for absolutes obviously. But for those of us west of the Blue Ridge we should be pretty confident at this point that we are gonna get hammered. A track west of the mouth of the Bay will mix even out here. But regardless of the model we get wrecked. Make up storm for us after the first storm debacle. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well, that's like 99.999999% of the people. No offense, but no one really cares what it does in Hagerstown. Well, maybe the 5 people that live there do. to be honest, i don't give a shit what happens in ellicott city but you don't hear me saying not to discuss it. 9 5 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Well, that's like 99.999999% of the people. No offense, but no one really cares what it does in Hagerstown. Well, maybe the 5 people that live there do. We care. And we don't really care if you don't. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 First, looking below there are plenty of hits that would make everyone happy. Too early for anyone to be too hopeful or depressed. Secondly, Frederick is the second largest city in MD. WB 6Z EPS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: to be honest, i don't give a shit what happens in ellicott city but you don't hear me saying not to discuss it. True. But we do hear you talk about how you are friends with Ava. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: True. But we do hear you talk about how you are friends with Ava. Not sure why that's being mentioned, but okie dokie. Good luck with your disaster. 4 2 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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