nj2va Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Coming out of the hot mess that was December, its pretty remarkable we're tracking a potential 3rd event in the last two weeks - with a pattern that screams winter weather the rest of the month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: The one thing those three storms had in common was the amazing rates and dynamics, including the widespread thundersnow. I remember seeing that flash of lightning at Millersville back in Feb 2014. I was there for that and remember it well. An incredible storm in so many ways. The thundersnow occurred when we were all hanging out sledding that evening. Crazy 3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Interesting that Commutageddon got in there. Wouldn't necessarily have thought of that, but I imagine it's due to the intense closed 500mb low (which Commutageddon had). Very much the 500mb evolution for that one. Super dynamic ULL, which for the time being this storm also has. There's a pretty good chance of thundersnow somewhere in the sub-forum and NC/VA if this holds. 3 minutes ago, Amped said: I'll add 1/4/94 to the list That was on one of the lists outside the top 10, but it was there! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 LWX forecast still is centered on Saturday to Sunday. Figured that would have been pushed a day by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Sooooooo. The 12z CIPS analogs are out...... The top two analogs with regards to the 500mb height pattern at 132 hrs out are: 1/26/2011 2/13/2014 Lead up at 120 hrs out number one analog...... 2/10/1983 This doesn't mean we can expect those exact results, but it does show what type of pattern and setup we are heading into these next 5-7 days. Remarkable swing these last 18 hrs. Seeing 2/2014 high on the list doesn't shock me...I kept mentioning it because the synoptic setup very much reminded me of that. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Seeing 2/2014 high on the list doesn't shock me...I kept mentioning it because the synoptic setup very much reminded me of that. This does have a lot of similarities, although the kicker here is it's showing a more powerful setup. These models are gonna underestimate the 500mb prowess up until game time. Euro I think has the closest idea to what I would expect with that evo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Seeing 2/2014 high on the list doesn't shock me...I kept mentioning it because the synoptic setup very much reminded me of that. That storm had the WAA snow come in like an absolute beast. The solutions for the 3 big globals today certainly made me think that there would be a heavy front end snow dump verbatim. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: That storm had the WAA snow come in like an absolute beast. The solutions for the 3 big globals today certainly made me think that there would be a heavy front end snow dump verbatim. I recall about 10-12” IMBY before changing to sleet/drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: This does have a lot of similarities, although the kicker here is it's showing a more powerful setup. These models are gonna underestimate the 500mb prowess up until game time. Euro I think has the closest idea to what I would expect with that evo I don't think the ggem and GFS have the necessary resolution or physics to accurately depict the likely banding associated with the h5 low if that's what you mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: I don't think the ggem and GFS have the necessary resolution or physics to accurately depict the likely banding associated with the h5 low if that's what you mean. For the most part, yup. The GFS and CMC both had a bizarre back end of the storm with it petering to nothing almost. There is no way that happens with a bomb like this. That comma head would be a thing of beauty, which is exactly what the Euro depicted. I still think we are far from being able to parse the nitty gritty on the setup, but the trends are favorable for a sizeable system.....for now. Hopefully it can stay locked in. It's going to be a wild ride until Friday me thinks. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That storm had the WAA snow come in like an absolute beast. The solutions for the 3 big globals today certainly made me think that there would be a heavy front end snow dump verbatim. It sure did! I recall going out in the middle of the night, there were already a few inches on the ground and it was puking snow. Got about a foot through early morning before snizzle most of the rest of the day, then some of the wrap-around snow (though the best of those deform. bands didn't hit my area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: That storm had the WAA snow come in like an absolute beast. The solutions for the 3 big globals today certainly made me think that there would be a heavy front end snow dump verbatim. Yeah, the 02/2014 system was definitely a climatological Miller A for us. IMBY (Crofton/central AA County), we had 7.5" WAA snow to start, and at the onset it was oh so cold, then the flip to sleet, rain, and drizzly dry slot. But the best part about it was the 3-5" of backside CCB snows the following day (afternoon). I had 11-12" total, but you folks n and w of the fall line had at least 12" with round 1 alone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, weathercoins said: LWX forecast still is centered on Saturday to Sunday. Figured that would have been pushed a day by now. I'd give them a call 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Mentioned earlier, but we are going into the freezer starting Friday evening. If we do get snow Sunday it should stick from the first flake. Which is always nice . January ‘16 was that way if i remember correctly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: I'll clarify. In on snow chance for weekend until it's confirmed no go. Out on the Miller B that cross dressed as a Miller A on the 6z gfs Def don't listen to this guy. He's a dum dum 2 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Bob Chill said: Def don't listen to this guy. He's a dum dum The dress looks nice so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The dress looks nice so far The RuPaul storm! With Ron Paul and his "It's Happening!!" 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Def don't listen to this guy. He's a dum dum nah...you just didnt know about the Miller C's 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, Ji said: nah...you just didnt know about the Miller C's Cutters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Can we extrapolate an HECS from this? 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before. You mean a good red flag right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Def don't listen to this guy. He's a dum dum Hey no worries--we're all 8 hours wiser now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I see some posts people talking about red flags. Here's your red flag... when the NAVGEM is by itself and east, something is up. Just my $.02......I've seen this before. That is one hell of a blizzard for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Bold forecast here in Western Loudoun! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman98 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO the bottom right box should be checked for all. They seem to be weighing likelihood for both axes. I'm not sure they are utilizing those risk matrices correctly. Confidence has not increased a lot since yesterday. But potential impact seems clearly high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: But Ji told us that, like his posts, these maps are useless. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 That NAVGEM offering when applied to weighted model consensus means a 15 mile shift to the east and 0.5 mb deeper. Not a bad thing. Pros don't always go on weighted model consensus, they sometimes pick a favorite or a consensus of two that they think have the better handle. But when a lot of models are showing very similar outcomes, a weighted model consensus often outperforms any one model taken alone. A good rule for the weighting might be 30% GFS, 25% Euro, 15% UK, 15% GGEM, and when time scale permits, 15% NAM. Go with RGEM instead of GGEM whenever possible. Ignore ICON and JMA. NAVGEM differentials are probably not that significant but if you wanted to give it 5% then if it's 300 miles east, that vector is 15 miles east. If it's 10 mb deeper that's 0.5 mb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 hang back, hang back (it will-it always does) watch for it to get more cutoff/bombsouth though /snow north of Richmond though (5/9 Richmond-centered storms are in Dec) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts