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MLK 2022 Storm Potential


stormtracker
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The Euro would be an incredible storm for all the sub-forum west of the bay. There is going to be a huge thump of snow before any changeover if the current 5H and SLP setup hold. A jog further east with the SLP and you'll be looking at an all-timer around these parts. Still so many details to go through. A storm is very much on the table now. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. 

Yeah would be a cool storm with the deform swinging through in daylight. 

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. 

I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain.  I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew!

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

I was actually going to ask if DC goes above freezing at the surface on the Euro, or if they switch to rain.  I saw that plot a couple of pages ago showing like 0.25"+ ice in the area...whew!

I'll take the over 500 lights flickering obs within the first hour of precip

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified. 

I'm debating details that ultimately won't matter in 12 hours (and details that the EURO cant be trusted to get right), but the EURO pushes temps at DCA to 37 by hour 141 with driving rain. Temps recover a bit for the deform band and would surely recover some snow out of it but verbatim that's pretty close to a cliff jumper run for those in the Beltway compared to the deck pics you (and me in CHO, if that verifies) would post.

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3 minutes ago, mappy said:

I know. its why we have so many who whine when they only get 3-6 instead of 16-20. sigh.

It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. 

But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great!

You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss.

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

why? just keep your expectations in check and you'll be fine.

Good advice. Work is kicking my ass and interfering with my favorite hobby lol. But yes, I don’t get too excited until we get into the 48-72 hour range. If this looks good on Thursday all bets are off on containing my excitement. Hope you are having a great start to the New Year!

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'm debating details that ultimately won't matter in 12 hours (and details that the EURO cant be trusted to get right), but the EURO pushes temps at DCA to 37 by hour 141 with driving rain. Temps recover a bit for the deform band and would surely recover some snow out of it but verbatim that's pretty close to a cliff jumper run for those in the Beltway compared to the deck pics you (and me in CHO, if that verifies) would post.

Stop the storm is 6 days away, there's going to be massive shift

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1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Stop the storm is 6 days away, there's going to be massive shift

what, why? models nail temperature forecasts to the degree, in complicated setups, at 6+ day lead times, all the time. oh wait....

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's all about the storm and expectations. If there is a big coastal storm, yes, I'm going to be mad if I get 6 inches immediately washed away as the snow turns over to rain. 

But if It's a clipper or something and I'm getting 1-3 or 2-4, that's awesome. Or just a quick moving wave that lays down a nice 3-6/4-8, great!

You only get so many chances in life to experience a HECS. And there are only so many opportunities to get one, so when the chance comes along, you don't want to swing and miss.

I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I don't think you or I have much to worry with the snow being washed away. I don't see that happening. Sleet is in play, maybe also zr, but I don't think it will even be a major ice storm.

Sleet is in play for all of us. It is so rare for a Coastal to stay all snow in the Mid Atlantic.

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3 minutes ago, dtk said:

what, why? models nail temperature forecasts to the degree, in complicated setups, at 6+ day lead times, all the time. oh wait....

If they show 33 and rain at DCA 10 days out they will be right. Models are assassin accurate with that. Ninja like. Jason Bourne like. :P

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