mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I think some are getting confused by these meso lows. But you look at the setup and the parent low is in ern PA into NY state. Those meso lows are in the warm conveyor belt and won’t help the Ptype at all. Maybe they help keep the interior below 40. Holy winds here though. I think GYX gives a good explanation, saying that earlier development of low pressure over towards the gulf of Maine will interrupt the east southeast inflow and keep the temps from totally furnacing. That doesn’t stop the warming aloft though but might be slow enough to get an extra hour or two of heavy snow but if it lightens that it immediately mixes or turns over. They say that an extra two hours come in an extra four or 5 inches for certain locations which makes sense to me the gradient between five or 6 inches and 11 or 12 inches is almost over my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stiff wood Dews are -18°F, Dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I still can't believe that this low is going way inland from starting off way down south. Classic coastal look. And to think we will all be in the single digits tomorrow morning. It’s 4 degrees now… even colder tomorrow morning. Ya it sucks…but I’m over it. Let’s get it over with now, and move on to other opportunities…this will be a snoozer for most away from the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Rooting for a Euro solution for the cities and towns that depend upon snow for their economy. Hopefully a jump start 10 miles from 12"+ and 20 miles from 1" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, tamarack said: 10 miles from 12"+ and 20 miles from 1" or less. I'm in the 1" and 10 miles is 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I think GYX gives a good explanation, saying that earlier development of low pressure over towards the gulf of Maine will interrupt the east southeast inflow and keep the temps from totally furnacing. That doesn’t stop the warming aloft though but might be slow enough to get an extra hour or two of heavy snow but if it lightens that it immediately mixes or turns over. They say that an extra two hours come in an extra four or 5 inches for certain locations which makes sense to me the gradient between five or 6 inches and 11 or 12 inches is almost over my head I’ll be surprised if we get 3-5” total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if we get 3-5” total. That was what I went to bed thinking. But gyx is till honking and wunderground as well. Probably just a huge euro fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Once the NAM sniffed out that warm layer aloft, you knew it was time to take ‘em down on the front end snow totals. It’s rarely wrong on that part. All the globals will keep slowly ticking toward it….kicking and screaming if need be but they will submit. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if we get 3-5” total. Tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I think their 6 low and your 6 high is pretty reasonable for you. Will you be watching the rain at Pit 1 or Pit 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll be surprised if we get 3-5” total. Hmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The NAM paints a rather pedestrian event for everyone outside of Canada. It's like 5 inches here the last couple runs. That's cool, I guess. Not sure it is just a WAA thing. It's way, way drier than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 hours ago, DavisStraight said: Plenty of time to salvage a decent winter. Not really…..even if it turns the story will be “ya but December and the January lulz”….all you can salvage from shit is shit…..that’s it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ice1972 said: Not really…..even if it turns the story will be “ya but December and the January lulz”….all you can salvage from shit is shit…..that’s it You've said this 100 times already i think everyone here knows where you stand on this winter. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 46 minutes ago, dryslot said: Dews are -18°F, Dry. The 3" glaciers of SNE sublimate away giving a head start for the rains. 21 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Will you be watching the rain at Pit 1 or Pit 2? It became an easy call to stay put in Mass. Pit 2 will be really windy, but who really cares if you're staying inside? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: No blocking=no good 5" for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The 3" glaciers of SNE sublimate away giving a head start for the rains. It became an easy call to stay put in Mass. Pit 2 will be really windy, but who really cares if you're staying inside? Unless the wind blows the roof off .. then you’re out in it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Whineminster said: 5" for us That would be a big win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 SNE winter lol…..the shit pack gets doused in rains or obliterated by -18 DP……either way ITS GONE….when is May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Every Tuesday night I take the trash - er Winter 21-22 - to the curb……..dump that shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 It just reiterates how badly the euro has been performing for a couple of years. And the GFS which sort of sniffed out the last storm has basically been brought to its heel buy the nam and the other globals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12k NAM is a little healthier here it looks like. Still a dumpster fire across the US of A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 If there’s one aspect of the NAM that makes me a little hesitant to buy the solution is that 850 is a lot warmer than other levels. Usually the NAM hammers that 725-800 layer but it’s not doing that. It has this weird very thin torch layer around 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: 12k NAM is a little healthier here it looks like. Still a dumpster fire across the US of A. At what point does GYX take them downAt what point does GYX take them down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Rooting for a Euro solution for the cities and towns that depend upon snow for their economy. Hopefully a jump start lol. what a zonked out weenie map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: At what point does GYX take them downAt what point does GYX take them down Eh, for my little corner of the world, NAM is kinda on an island being drier. The globals are all still juiced up pretty good. For areas further south, it looks like more rain is in the cards, but I haven't paid much attention. None of these models really change me over. NAM is closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Eh, for my little corner of the world, NAM is kinda on an island being drier. The globals are all still juiced up pretty good. For areas further south, it looks like more rain is in the cards, but I haven't paid much attention. None of these models really change me over. NAM is closest. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The low goes over BGM. I don’t see a shift east. Your HOF call looks pretty good right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 20 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Zactly! I mean ... I think back to that whopper < 12 hour temperature recovery event back in 1994. It was late January ( you're better with dates than me ...). That was also a plain to see we were going to be porked by WAA fisting up the coast. I was still a fledgling Met back in those days, and so I was really in a frame of mind where, " ...I gotta see this to believe it..." Lack of experience, combined with the 9 F at 8am on the Wx Lab monitor, with blue tinted dawn and flurries under the street lamps along the walk over, didn't lend to believing. But, there was no high pressure N... In fact, it was even less so than this one is presently modeled to have. The baroclinic wall/associated cyclone approached from the W, not the S like this one will. That event back then really was a completely unabated rush on the cold QB, and the QB was definitely going to unavoidably take a sack. By noon, 9 had become 22. Freezing rain kicked in, which only accelerated the heat retreat - because once we started accreting ... phase change latency kicked in and sent the temp pretty quickly toward freezing. By 3 is 32 ... 32.01 as Ray muses from time to time. The sky had changed texture. By 4, it was strato-streets visibly moving N with extreme rapidity... 35. The cafeteria below Smith Hall opened for dinner at 5:30. I was sitting there eating, and the bushes immediately outside the window were suddenly whipping around. By then I knew this was the warm boundary... At some point between 4:30 and 5:30 ( I had stopped paying attention out of resentment, ha) it came through and leaned tree tops over. When I stepped out shortly after 6, the night setting was sounds of turbines pushing 60 air up and over snow banks, that were sending Kelvin Hemholtz steam plumes rollin' down wind.. The air smelled like summer. I think it was Friday... and the campus came to life. Students spilled out of dorms because ... I guess going from 9 to 62 musta been tee-shirt weather for lacking acclimation. Sparing furthering misery of that anecdote, ...last year's Grinch storm? Same... Huge snow pack. Pretty chilly ( though not 9 ) the day before... Completely naked and no defense to a full latitude trough moving E across the country. This is not like those. January 28, 1994 perhaps. Burlington went from -28 on the 27th to 47 on the 28 and back to a high of 9 on the 30th. https://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=btv 1994-01-15 7 -14 -3.5 -21.8 68 0 T T 15 1994-01-16 -5 -18 -11.5 -29.7 76 0 T T 14 1994-01-17 28 -5 11.5 -6.7 53 0 0.29 5.6 14 1994-01-18 24 -4 10.0 -8.2 55 0 0.05 0.6 19 1994-01-19 3 -17 -7.0 -25.2 72 0 0.00 0.0 16 1994-01-20 7 -6 0.5 -17.7 64 0 T T 16 1994-01-21 13 -1 6.0 -12.2 59 0 T T 15 1994-01-22 17 -2 7.5 -10.7 57 0 0.02 1.0 15 1994-01-23 20 -13 3.5 -14.7 61 0 0.10 2.5 16 1994-01-24 31 17 24.0 5.7 41 0 0.02 0.5 16 1994-01-25 17 0 8.5 -9.8 56 0 T T 15 1994-01-26 0 -25 -12.5 -30.9 77 0 0.00 0.0 13 1994-01-27 15 -29 -7.0 -25.5 72 0 T 0.1 13 1994-01-28 47 14 30.5 12.0 34 0 0.31 0.6 14 1994-01-29 44 9 26.5 7.9 38 0 0.01 0.1 12 1994-01-30 9 -8 0.5 -18.2 64 0 T 0.1 11 1994-01-31 10 -13 -1.5 -20.3 66 0 0.00 0.0 11 I remember sitting in my room with the 6 PM news talking about rain for the next day while it was sitting at -26. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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