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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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12 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Anecdotally, I went to school in Schenectady in the late 80s and I remember thinking it was significantly snowier than what I was used to living in Needham, MA through high school.  Windier, snowier, colder.

When I first moved to the area in the 90s, Alb averaged closer to 67". The last couple of 30 year climate updates have steadily dropped it to around 60 now, while most other northeastern cities have increased their averages. Just a lot of bad luck for them in the 2000s, outside of a few massive storms.

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You must not be a home owner. Trust me.. You would feel completely different

I believe he is a homeowner.  So is Kevin who lusts after damage to his home.  OTOH I’ll take rain and above freezing any day over zr or a potential loss of power.

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

This whole hot mess of a storm set up, would be a little less irritating to me, if it wasn’t going to be so f**cling cold this weekend. 

Right? Wash away what's left of the last storm, fine, it would clear off my golf mat and I could fire up the backyard sim again...but nope.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I believe he is a homeowner.  So is Kevin who lusts after damage to his home.  OTOH I’ll take rain and above freezing any day over zr or a potential loss of power.

I tried my best kevin impersonation, apparently it went over heads

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... I was just noticing something interesting...this quasi closing S/W in the deep south, responsible for this event, may never see the Atlantic skies.  It rolls up into eastern Canada in most guidance, bi-passing phase entirely ...to where it just opens up and loses identity, decaying into the back ground isohypsic flow.  Gone...

It's comes into existance as a phase over ~ Kansas, does a parabolic p.o.s. motion, gone.  Usually these things trundle on to contribute/evolve into new events down stream.  Eerily doing this for one aspect, getting a rain against all cold odds...  That's a neat trick LOL

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Just bothered to look at the 18z GFS sfc evolution...  

We're not getting much substantive analysis over these disseminations any longerProbably event fatigue as set in.  I know I'm hand tossing and done ..

But, I can say I doubt this run can happen in reality.  It's not going to start commiting to new low in the outer Bite region SSE of L.I., even hinting at closing an isobar, then suddenly ... give up and end up with a 975 mb low N of ALB 4 to 6 hours later.

It's more likely to commit less to that new center entirely, or, commit more - but that hopscotch act is less likely.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just bothered to look at the 18z GFS sfc evolution...  

We're not getting much substantive analysis over these disseminations any longerProbably event fatigue as set in.  I know I'm hand tossing and done ..

But, I can say I doubt this run can happen in reality.  It's not going to start commiting to new low in the outer Bite region SSE of L.I., even hinting at closing an isobar, then suddenly ... give up and end up with a 975 mb low N of ALB 4 to 6 hours later.

It's more likely to commit less to that new center entirely, or, commit more - but that hopscotch act is less likely.  

 

Dollars to donuts 18z Euro does that and continues its theme of 2ndary SSE of LI and  along south coast crossing elbow of CC

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58 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The NWS Albany snow maps for NW  Berks and S VT seem way overdone based on current model guidance.  We shall see.

Agreed. My gut says this keeps warming aloft until about 24h out. Then maybe we get a little messenger tickle but most of the damage will be irreversible by then. 
 

I think the sfc warmth is overdone in the deep interior though so it wouldn’t surprise me to see some decent icing and sleet too. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just bothered to look at the 18z GFS sfc evolution...  

We're not getting much substantive analysis over these disseminations any longerProbably event fatigue as set in.  I know I'm hand tossing and done ..

But, I can say I doubt this run can happen in reality.  It's not going to start commiting to new low in the outer Bite region SSE of L.I., even hinting at closing an isobar, then suddenly ... give up and end up with a 975 mb low N of ALB 4 to 6 hours later.

It's more likely to commit less to that new center entirely, or, commit more - but that hopscotch act is less likely.  

 

Agreed. I hadn’t read this post yet but when I responded to hippy i mentioned the sfc warmth is overdone on some of these runs. I think at minimum a triple point low goes over SE MA or close to there (maybe BOS?). 

I think the midlevels are cooked though based on the upper air evolution. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. My gut says this keeps warming aloft until about 24h out. Then maybe we get a little messenger tickle but most of the damage will be irreversible by then. 
 

I think the sfc warmth is overdone in the deep interior though so it wouldn’t surprise me to see some decent icing and sleet too. 

I am seeking the overall jackpot. Greedy. 

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