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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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Motherfu**ers!!     :) 

KLEW GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/14/2022 1200 UTC

 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 15| SUN 16| MON 17| TUE 18| WED 19| THU 20| FRI 21|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  -2  11| -8  23| 12  31| 21  23| -4  19| 12  25| -1  17|  5 10 29
 TMP  -1   4| -6  14| 19  29| 26  14| -1  17| 13  17|  2  12|  9      
 DPT -19 -18|-15  -1| 15  28| 14  -6|-10   8|  4   2| -8  -1|  2      
 CLD  CL  CL| CL  CL| OV  OV| OV  CL| CL  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| OV      
 WND  19  14|  9   4| 12  19| 12  16| 13   5|  5  16| 10   6|  4      
 P12   3   0|  1   1| 32  91| 41  11|  7  40| 59  29| 13  21| 18999999
 P24       3|      1|     93|     43|     40|     63|     21|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   5|  1   0|  0   1|  2   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      5|      1|      1|      2|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  0   2|  1   1|  2   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0      
 T24        |  1    |  0    |  2    |  2    |  2    |  1    |  0      
 PZP   0   0|  4   2|  6  14|  1   5|  5   9| 20  10|  6  10| 10      
 PSN  95  98| 96  98| 91  43| 40  91| 92  85| 55  79| 90  79| 83      
 PRS   4   0|  1   0|  0  10| 23   4|  3   4| 14   6|  4   5|  6      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S|  S   S| RS   S|  S   S|  Z   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       0|      0|      8|      1|      0|      6|       |         
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BOX p/c for Greenfield still fairly bullish on front end thump.

Sunday Night
Snow likely, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
M.L.King Day
Snow before 2pm, then rain likely between 2pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. High near 38. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It was better there than 12z. And the GFS actually wasn't much better. ALB isn't a big snow town. Gets downsloped on almost any wind direction and very low elevation.

It's not awful. 60" average for that location isn't too bad at all. It takes a strong easterly wind to downslope them during nor'easters, which typically doesn't happen (Dec 92 a rather rate occurrence). It downslopes easiest on a SW wind which isn't concerning during a winter storm. It does just fine on the typical N or NE wind.

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6 minutes ago, Stash said:

It's not awful. 60" average for that location isn't too bad at all. It takes a strong easterly wind to downslope them during nor'easters, which typically doesn't happen (Dec 92 a rather rate occurrence). It downslopes easiest on a SW wind which isn't concerning during a winter storm. It does just fine on the typical N or NE wind.

Yeah that's not terrible.  That's right around what I average in Greenfield.  I think the Albany area as well as my area has just seemed bad relative to areas East of here the past decade.

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4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah that's not terrible.  That's right around what I average in Greenfield.  I think the Albany area as well as my area has just seemed bad relative to areas East of here the past decade.

I remember feeling intensely jealous of Albany for much of my childhood, so they must’ve done well in the 90s. 

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48 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

You getting excited to see your lush lawn by midday Monday?

Speaking of lawns, if the plow tearing up your lawn is the price for a snowstorm I may have to rethink my love of snow.  That's what happened last week to not only my lawn but several of the neighbors on the street.

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20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I remember feeling intensely jealous of Albany for much of my childhood, so they must’ve done well in the 90s. 

Anecdotally, I went to school in Schenectady in the late 80s and I remember thinking it was significantly snowier than what I was used to living in Needham, MA through high school.  Windier, snowier, colder.

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2 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

Not everybody.

I'm not an expert in VT climatology, but because of the way the GFS tried to phase that run, it torched the lower levels certainly up btv. Maybe it was overdone, I don't know...but maybe it's not done morphing.

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