HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is very reasonable IMO...agree with it. Haven’t seen him on here in a long time but @Logan11is in a good spot for this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Haven’t seen him on here in a long time but @Logan11is in a good spot for this one. He will be buried up to his white mane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Haven’t seen him on here in a long time but @Logan11is in a good spot for this one. His hairs up on his property at 1400’ , but his feet are down lower on the 1050’ area 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its from today's system. Call me a dummy for assuming snow doesn’t accumulate in the non frozen ocean..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, weathafella said: Call me a dummy for assuming snow doesn’t accumulate in the non frozen ocean..... I'm sure it will collect on a boat or buoy somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it looked a little less crazy amped at H5....but small differences. The small difference do matter, but it's hard to tell if they are real when they are small. Could be model noise. Hopefully we get another couple ticks colder and it would vastly improve the overall tenure of the storm. The northern stream looked a bit weaker early on, It will matter here and anywhere else that's right on the edge, After a decent thump, 925mb looks to be where the problem is here as it gets to 0c/+2c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ray, do you have the key for that map (what does the yellow represent)? Asking for a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Call me a dummy for assuming snow doesn’t accumulate in the non frozen ocean..... dummy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ray, do you have the key for that map (what does the yellow represent)? Asking for a weenie 6"-8"....its basically the 4-8" snowfall forecast that I gave you last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Call me a dummy for assuming snow doesn’t accumulate in the non frozen ocean..... It's a fleet of ships the euro knows will be there at that time because it is such a super smart model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 18 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Haven’t seen him on here in a long time but @Logan11is in a good spot for this one. Ricks well aware lol, He likes it when it tracks inland, He's usually SOL on a coastal track unless its large and a hugger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 39 minutes ago, bwt3650 said: What’s with the snow hole over the northern greens? The low level jet and warm conveyor belt head east up the coast while the mid-level banding and cold conveyor is way west. We are sort of in no-man’s land for forcing as the storm occludes and the surface low goes east of us (keeping the Whites in a strong moist SE flow) but the mid-level lows go west of us so banding there is west of that. If the system was vertically stacked we’d be golden on the west side of the surface low. I like 5-10” up north here once upslope is in. Say 3-5” dense synoptic and 3-5” NW flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 6"-8"....its basically the 4-8" snowfall forecast that I gave you last night. Yeah... that still fits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure it will collect on a boat or buoy somewhere. It does though...I've seen it. I lived in Rockport Ma in my history, through a winter. ...unmentionably distant history.. I recall a specific once occurrence of parachutes falling heavily upon the still harbor water - really still. They were making individual impact rings as though they were rain drops. But they weren't melting right away. The were visibly conserving as small slush blobs. By latter Jan and Feb, the ocean water in the coves and harbors of the N. Shore can be pretty much life halting, death cold. 32 F water tucked in, unfrozen because see water needs to be 26. So aggregate bombs kissing the surfaces at big enough that they probably form a dilution interface between their cryo-cores and the brine water, that doesn't penetrate. Slush floats... In fact, if it snows hard enough in that marginal state, I've seen the harbor turn gray. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Euro absolutely blasts through the area. 8-10 hours of precip? Gets mix up to the Lakes region of NH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Euro absolutely blasts through the area. 8-10 hours of precip? Gets mix up to the Lakes region of NH Yeah, have to hedge towards lower totals than the snow maps show because this thing is flying and in my personal experience monstrous rates are often predicted but then materialize as something less impressive. At least that was the deal further south in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 when do we start getting excited at roof damage prospects 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, JC-CT said: when do we start getting excited at roof damage prospects As soon as the rest of us move to the shoreline. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is quite challenging. I'm not totally convinced yet we just full on torch down this way. It's certainly a concern but the GFS has been very persistent in wanting to pop that secondary and ever so slightly jogging southeast with everything. Meanwhile the NAM/Euro definitely want to go west. Looks like all the models are actually handling the main vorticity pretty consistently...looks like the bigger differences overall are with that shortwave digging through the Ohio Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is quite challenging. I'm not totally convinced yet we just full on torch down this way. It's certainly a concern but the GFS has been very persistent in wanting to pop that secondary and ever so slightly jogging southeast with everything. Meanwhile the NAM/Euro definitely want to go west. Looks like all the models are actually handling the main vorticity pretty consistently...looks like the bigger differences overall are with that shortwave digging through the Ohio Valley. The only challenge is whether its 48 or 36 for a hi...doesn't matter, otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Can we get the sudden east members to catch our hail mary? 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Can we get the sudden east members to catch our hail mary? Prob a random little meso low it’s going west , but maybe we can shave a little latitude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 20 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Can we get the sudden east members to catch our hail mary? I bet those eastern members all have relative minimum surface pressure centers in the same northern MD cluster that are about 0.1mb lower than where the L is placed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WINTER STORM WATCH, HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. * WHERE...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA, NORTHERN WORCESTER MA AND NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 First call 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: First call That's very similar to mine last night...comforting for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's very similar to mine last night...comforting for me. Kevin's been texting with extreme displeasure with this map. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2.5 days out . I am quite sure that map will not verify . Either it’s much too low for the whole region .. or .. it’s too high. I just think that scenario there is least likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Kevin's been texting with extreme displeasure with this map. It might be too generous if some of these solutions that have the ML warmth in here almost at go-time end up being more correct. But he could also get 5-6" if things break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It might be too generous if some of these solutions that have the ML warmth in here almost at go-time end up being more correct. But he could also get 5-6" if things break right. Yeah agreed. Seems like a reasonable compromise attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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