JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, snowgeek said: 1st priority is a good base builder for the ski areas. Some of us might have to sacrifice some snow at home, but sometimes ya gotta take one for the team. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk you bend over first 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good thing it’s the GFS showing it, the GFS is horrible. Navy should take over the GFS. That’ll straighten it out..Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s fun to watch them modeling but I can’t really get invested in this until Thursday. Ensembles will hopefully have tightened the goalposts by Thursday morning. Agreed. I want to see what the Friday deal ultimately does to influence it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 you bend over firstAlready bent. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Storms don't like tracking up the Appalachians just saying, A hugger i could see though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: ask yourself, if it showed a blizzard..would you be saying this. Yes I would, I never use the GFS. Euro Canadian and Navy are the 3 models I look at mid range. Now my concern is the Euro and Canadian are inland, but the ensembles are farther SE while the navy has a blizzard. There is a lot of cold air in place so as long as the low doesn’t go west of us we should be fine. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mark my word This will be a coastal crusher Coasts of Lake Ontario? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 The more energy that phases from that short wave diving out of Canada, the further west this is going. Many options depending on how these players decide to dance…….grinding like a middle school dance in the 2000’s or barely touching like the 50’s. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 if the ensembles could just like, stay put, that would be amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: if the ensembles could just like, stay put, that would be amazing I think the GEFS will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, PhineasC said: A week out? No way. This will look wildly different by Friday. Hush, you. Remember, guidance picks up the big ones early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: There is plenty of time and model runs for the late night crew to console each other, if that would be the case. We’ll probably have to become each other’s mindfulness guides… 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think there is very little chance of you being mainly rain that far west. The latest trends indicate I’ll need your best buddha impersonation sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Waiting for the inevitable post from Rev wanting his damaging ice storm #beer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: I think the GEFS will. Never let anyone tell you model trends aren't real. They are lying to you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowgeek said: The more energy that phases from that short wave diving out of Canada, the further west this is going. Many options depending on how these players decide to dance…….grinding like a middle school dance in the 2000’s or barely touching like the 50’s. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk What is funky is 18z gfs is not as phased as 12z, yet it tucked further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, TheBudMan said: Waiting for the inevitable post from Rev wanting his damaging ice storm #beer Getting a little late in the season for that with the sun angle. Maybe if it was mid-december. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18z GEFS look good, I would not sweat the OP run at this lead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 the GEFS actually has stronger confluent flow over the NE than 12z… this will allow for a farther SE track even if the shortwave is more amplified the GEFS, as a result, shows that the OP remains a significant western outlier. the vast majority of the members are near or just inside the BM. even the most W members aren’t really close to PA where the OP had it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 18z GEFS look good, I would not sweat the OP run at this lead. Most of the strong members are to the west of the mean though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, George001 said: Good thing it’s the GFS showing it, the GFS is horrible. It’s no navy or cmc that’s for sure…. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEFS actually has stronger confluent flow over the NE than 12z… so did the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Most of the strong members are to the west of the mean though Didn't look at the individuals, But it still looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Didn't look at the individuals, But it still looks fine. yeah, I mean it's really just killing time right now. I'm not living and dying by each run...but it's fun to pretend lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: so did the OP nah, the OP at the same lead time significantly raised heights over New England (look over NH/ME), which helped lead to the farther W track. interesting that the GEFS didn’t buy it whatsoever and actually moved the other way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: yeah, I mean it's really just killing time right now. I'm not living and dying by each run...but it's fun to pretend lol Ha. A regionwide hit would be enjoyable but it shouldn’t break anyone if it doesn’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Op is the far most western outlier compared to the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 to put this into perspective, the OP GFS has the low much farther west than the farthest west GEFS member… which is already an outlier the vast majority of the tracks are near perfect, and it seems as if the real threat to this storm is a missed phase over the Rockies ala the ICON 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks like noise to me.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Op is the far most western outlier compared to the ensembles Well it probably can’t get any further west given how positive the trough is as the vort digs into the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2/14/07 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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