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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we'll see...maybe that shortwave comes in weaker. I am admittedly going on anecdotal evidence. Maybe @OceanStWx has some insight onto the statistics of incoming shortwaves recently...if they've been stronger or weaker after being sampled.

I’m not aware of any systematic bias with shortwaves lately. 

I do know in the past models struggled with short wavelength spacing between shortwaves and would keep them too strong. However that normally affected the lead wave more, dampening it out, vs the trailing wave.

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I’m not aware of any systematic bias with shortwaves lately. 

I do know in the past models struggled with short wavelength spacing between shortwaves and would keep them too strong. However that normally affected the lead wave more, dampening it out, vs the trailing wave.

The bigger issue with shortwaves in the models these days seems to be accurately sampling and ingesting the data on them as they come ashore and being able to forecast what they do with this very progressive flow regime that we've had for what seems to be an extended period of time now...  they seem to be crossing the country pretty quickly, I think it takes a while for the modeling to catch up with them in terms of forecasting snow, etc...

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I would take heavy under on those Euro snow maps down this way. For example by 7z it's already up to 32F in Hartford and only about 0.1" of QPF has fallen at that point. With a rapid changeover you're going to have issues with the snow maps and how they're assigning ptype per 3-hour increment. 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I was looking at H5.

Yeah it looked a little less crazy amped at H5....but small differences. The small difference do matter, but it's hard to tell if they are real when they are small. Could be model noise. Hopefully we get another couple ticks colder and it would vastly improve the overall tenure of the storm.

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