Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Time sensy but check out the arctic boundary as it slinks through IN-OH-PA https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Ohio-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: One way to cut down the melting, infighting, and bickering would be to start storm threads at only 3 days out. Not going to happen, but just saying. Agree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fantastic elaboration that hones the oddity of what's portrayed in the models. I've been sharing in this sentiment. I also am of the ilk that seldom really gets personally 'moved' by failures/successes, either. But being human ( LOL ) it does admittedly feel unsettling when there are really both intuition, and data, supplying veracious counter- reasons that question the consensus - yet, the consensus persists. Other than what I just annotated last hour, re the relay and final piece to this dog and pony show set to relay off the Pacific tomorrow, I'm out of a suggestions - if this doesn't modulate when that happens... the less than sensible, less than a-priori for matter, solution probably prevails I guess. The precision at which we get porked in this storm against a plethora of snow-bound analogs is pretty funny though…in a masochistic sort of way. I have done this for 3 days now, but yet, I’m still shocked every time I look at the 4-panel map 24 hours prior to this storm hitting and say “this is going to be mostly a rain event”. It’s amazing. You’d think there was no way. Sure, we’ve had 0F to 45F rainers 12 hours later before but you could easily see it coming when you viewed the maps. This time, it’s not obvious at all until you get to lime T-12 hours or so. Truly surgical precision of getting shafted out of a MECS/HECS type storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: You have to pretend to like upslope though. They get kinda angry about it. So i guess i'm in no mans land, I have nothing i could add for upslope, But i sure can add to sunny and warm on dowsloping off the Mahoosucs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: One way to cut down the melting, infighting, and bickering would be to start storm threads at only 3 days out. Not going to happen, but just saying. that would just clutter the main one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: that would just clutter the main one. I can remember not too many years ago when the mods would give time outs to some saying similar stuff, friends or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 years ago no tropical cyclone had ever been as far N and E as the Turks and Caicos, and then make landfall in Texas. Analogs are like records, right, made to be broken? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: I can remember not too many years ago when the mods would give time outs to some saying similar stuff, friends or not. that's a "storm mode" thing...let the inner-fighting continue! It's all we got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: So i guess i'm in no mans land, I have nothing i could add for upslope, But i sure can add to sunny and warm on dowsloping off the Mahoosucs. We'll always welcome you back to our humble little sub-forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 14 years ago no tropical cyclone had ever been as far N and E as the Turks and Caicos, and then make landfall in Texas. Analogs are like records, right, made to be broken? It is why I dislike the use of analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: It is why I dislike the use of analogs. They aren't meant' to be absolute....9/10 times, they would have guided you in the right direction with respect to Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: They aren't meant' to be absolute....9/10 times, they would have guided you in the right direction with respect to Monday. I'm not a fan of them at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 14 years ago no tropical cyclone had ever been as far N and E as the Turks and Caicos, and then make landfall in Texas. Analogs are like records, right, made to be broken? During satellite era. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: I'm not a fan of them at all. Fair enough...I feel like they give you a baseline of expectation of sort...when they go astray, it ultimately adds to their utility. Their largest limitation is sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Going back to Will's comment, Bufkit has 50-60kts on the GFS for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Going back to Will's comment, Bufkit has 50-60kts on the GFS for the coast. Thank god. I was hoping to not get any snow, and lose power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I can’t imagine this unusual set up would have any implications for us come tropical season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll take the under on 65mph at my place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Going back to Will's comment, Bufkit has 50-60kts on the GFS for the coast. Yeah it looks very windy along the coast. Pretty impressive stuff. Should just miss high tide but it's close down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 You know when will says we are getting porked from a snow storm that it’s a legendary porking Bc that man does not complain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it looks very windy along the coast. Pretty impressive stuff. Should just miss high tide but it's close down here. Will likely depend on those meso lows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You know when will says we are getting porked from a snow storm that it’s a legendary porking Bc that man does not complain Never seen an abrupt left turn like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 If basically this outcome prevails, it might be time to finally give the mid-range models their due. The GFS led the way like 6 days out - with the CMC, UK, Euro quickly following suit - showing this storm pretty far west in contrast to the ensembles, analogs, and synoptic analysis. Maybe the models aren't trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The precision at which we get porked in this storm against a plethora of snow-bound analogs is pretty funny though…in a masochistic sort of way. I have done this for 3 days now, but yet, I’m still shocked every time I look at the 4-panel map 24 hours prior to this storm hitting and say “this is going to be mostly a rain event”. It’s amazing. You’d think there was no way. Sure, we’ve had 0F to 45F rainers 12 hours later before but you could easily see it coming when you viewed the maps. This time, it’s not obvious at all until you get to lime T-12 hours or so. Truly surgical precision of getting shafted out of a MECS/HECS type storm. Zactly! I mean ... I think back to that whopper < 12 hour temperature recovery event back in 1994. It was late January ( you're better with dates than me ...). That was also a plain to see we were going to be porked by WAA fisting up the coast. I was still a fledgling Met back in those days, and so I was really in a frame of mind where, " ...I gotta see this to believe it..." Lack of experience, combined with the 9 F at 8am on the Wx Lab monitor, with blue tinted dawn and flurries under the street lamps along the walk over, didn't lend to believing. But, there was no high pressure N... In fact, it was even less so than this one is presently modeled to have. The baroclinic wall/associated cyclone approached from the W, not the S like this one will. That event back then really was a completely unabated rush on the cold QB, and the QB was definitely going to unavoidably take a sack. By noon, 9 had become 22. Freezing rain kicked in, which only accelerated the heat retreat - because once we started accreting ... phase change latency kicked in and sent the temp pretty quickly toward freezing. By 3 is 32 ... 32.01 as Ray muses from time to time. The sky had changed texture. By 4, it was strato-streets visibly moving N with extreme rapidity... 35. The cafeteria below Smith Hall opened for dinner at 5:30. I was sitting there eating, and the bushes immediately outside the window were suddenly whipping around. By then I knew this was the warm boundary... At some point between 4:30 and 5:30 ( I had stopped paying attention out of resentment, ha) it came through and leaned tree tops over. When I stepped out shortly after 6, the night setting was sounds of turbines pushing 60 air up and over snow banks, that were sending Kelvin Hemholtz steam plumes rollin' down wind.. The air smelled like summer. I think it was Friday... and the campus came to life. Students spilled out of dorms because ... I guess going from 9 to 62 musta been tee-shirt weather for lacking acclimation. Sparing furthering misery of that anecdote, ...last year's Grinch storm? Same... Huge snow pack. Pretty chilly ( though not 9 ) the day before... Completely naked and no defense to a full latitude trough moving E across the country. This is not like those. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: If it won’t snow at all.. let’s rip big winds regionwide 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Never seen an abrupt left turn like that. Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Going back to Will's comment, Bufkit has 50-60kts on the GFS for the coast. Best thing to parse out of this craptastic storm. It's going to be a windy one. Gusting here now as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Best thing to parse out of this craptastic storm. It's going to be a windy one. Gusting here now as well. Fast mover so at least it’s not over multiple tide cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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