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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Snow is serious business

 

8 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Maybe a brawl at the next GTG?

Like me, I think a lot of people take solace in the dark, sardonic humor, or simple venting of frustration in the face of continued seasonal futility. Apparently he doesn't...I get it, but I'm not sure contributing a slew of posts about how I make his skin crawl makes the forum any easier to read. There is a simple fix...ignore feature. Nothing personal, he's a good friend...but enough already. lol 

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Like me, I think a lot of people take solace in the dark, sardonic humor, or simple venting of frustration in the face of continued seasonal futility. Apparently he doesn't...I get it, but I'm not sure contributing a slew of posts about how I make his skin crawl makes the forum any easier to read. There is a simple fix...ignore feature. Nothing personal, he's a good friend...but enough already. lol 

January 14th with nothing imminent is late enough in the season to stop pretending everything is awesome. I think most have had enough of the Hail Marys and confessionals asking for forgiveness at this point. 
 

You can only polish a turd like this season for so long. If it changes, great, but we can only discuss what’s already happened, and it’s sucked big ones. Period.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If only these virtual simulations of the atmosphere can predict the same sort of consistency from d6 onward the next time we have a threat along the BM. Unreal how easy it is for them, suddenly. As if they popped a viagra, perc, and a performance enhancer simultaneously. 

There are still going to be surprises with this one but unfortunately they could be even further in the wrong direction for winter weather enthusiast.

I for one have not ruled out a better scenario for the interior.  I’m giving it until 0z. 

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2 hours ago, FXWX said:

Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm...  I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts.  But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit.  I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE.   This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above.  The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this?  If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway.  The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced.   I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling.  In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome.  But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends.   This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me... 

Fantastic elaboration that hones the oddity of what's portrayed in the models. 

I've been sharing in this sentiment.  I also am of the ilk that seldom really gets personally 'moved' by failures/successes, either.  But being human ( LOL ) it does admittedly feel unsettling when there are really both intuition, and data, supplying veracious counter- reasons that question the consensus - yet, the consensus persists.

Other than what I just annotated last hour, re the relay and final piece to this dog and pony show set to relay off the Pacific tomorrow, I'm out of a suggestions - if this doesn't modulate when that happens... the less than sensible, less than a-priori for matter, solution probably prevails I guess. 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

They are still going to be surprised with this one but unfortunately they could be even further in the wrong direction for winter weather enthusiast.

I for one have not ruled out a better scenario for the interior.  I’m giving it until 0z. 

Of course, hard to pin it within a 5 mile radius or whatever but give us ens members all within a 50mi strike zone along the BM at d4 next time and lock it there. 
 

I’m still pulling for you and the interior folks to squeeze out a good one. 

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