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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened.

This winter finds new ways to disappoint...

Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that.

If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol

image.thumb.png.5619a725010f76c7f155199bf6513e73.png

Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm...  I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts.  But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit.  I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE.   This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above.  The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this?  If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway.  The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced.   I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling.  In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome.  But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends.   This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me... 

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1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm...  I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts.  But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit.  I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE.   This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above.  The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this?  If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway.  The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced.   I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling.  In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome.  But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends.   This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me... 

climate change

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Funny how every single CIPS analog does not go as far west as this one does.

Maybe dumb (newb) question but if every analog doesn't pull this that far West, how/why is it doing it this time?   Meaning, is this storm setting a new precedent (analog?) for what the forecasted outcome is currently and could it be that the models (NAM in particular) are not modeling this correctly? 

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That doesn't even give any love to the S VT ski areas.  

NAM has basically turned this into a cutter, which is funny, because that was the last thing on anyone's mind a few days ago.

Is the low tracking further inland now? Carson was saying that if anything, the low would likely correct more eastward then more west. But that was yesterday. Frcst is 8-12" here. Looking doubtful.

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14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change

Not just that.  The models can only account for deterministic factors that humans can program into them, and the limited number of observations that feed into the baselines to generate the model output.  There might be factors in modeling we're not accounting for yet that influence the weather, and we're not observing the weather in every location on the planet every second of the day for data input.  So while the analogs might look "perfect" there are clearly other factors in play making this storm behave differently.  The models either aren't seeing something or the atmospheric conditions, somewhere, are different than the analogs, causing this storm to behave as forecasted.

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1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

This is definitely having an influence on our weather, for sure... that being said, if you go here and review the maps, the gulf stream has been above normal since at least 1996:

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data3/50km/image/twiceweekly/ssta/global/

 

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