Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Epicosity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: More snow for the Cape than Ray STILL N of Pike may need to go chasing down in Chatham..with 1" on the backside of todays ocean storm, they could be a regional jack over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wild changes with this thing. The plus side is the idea of cleaning things up. All the salty crusty dirty everything. Of course, then you have to think of black ice after if they don’t retreat, but the parking lots and other land will be cleaner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM coming in warmer than it's already previously torched solution. Not the trend I was looking for. 1-2" for Dave and I then over to sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 PArts of the Carolinas get 18" while SNE gets 2" of rain 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll stick with the Euro and GFS OPs for now. Hugging until the end..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened. This winter finds new ways to disappoint... Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that. If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm... I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts. But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit. I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE. This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above. The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this? If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway. The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced. I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling. In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome. But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends. This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me... 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: PArts of the Carolinas get 18" while SNE gets 2" of rain You love to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: PArts of the Carolinas get 18" while SNE gets 2" of rain By the end of the weekend Nashville may have had more snow than parts of SNE and Southern NH.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's your NAM clown map That doesn't even give any love to the S VT ski areas. NAM has basically turned this into a cutter, which is funny, because that was the last thing on anyone's mind a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, FXWX said: Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm... I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts. But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit. I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE. This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above. The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this? If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway. The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced. I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling. In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome. But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends. This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me... climate change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'll stick with the Euro and GFS OPs for now. Hugging until the end..lol The Nam at the end of its run is not good so i really don't care what it has or the RGEM, They've both been bad until inside 24-36hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Funny how every single CIPS analog does not go as far west as this one does. Maybe dumb (newb) question but if every analog doesn't pull this that far West, how/why is it doing it this time? Meaning, is this storm setting a new precedent (analog?) for what the forecasted outcome is currently and could it be that the models (NAM in particular) are not modeling this correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'll stick with the Euro and GFS OPs for now. Hugging until the end..lol See what the 12z suite does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, CT Rain said: maybe kevin can begin as rain with mangled flakes? What a nightmare this storm is. Like Will said it's so close to a beautiful setup... a total waste. So the NAM is right ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: That doesn't even give any love to the S VT ski areas. NAM has basically turned this into a cutter, which is funny, because that was the last thing on anyone's mind a few days ago. Is the low tracking further inland now? Carson was saying that if anything, the low would likely correct more eastward then more west. But that was yesterday. Frcst is 8-12" here. Looking doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So the NAM is right ? Probably overdone but starting a snowstorm with strong SE flow at 850mb is not great! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Is the low tracking further inland now? Carson was saying that if anything, the low would likely correct more eastward then more west. But that was yesterday. Frcst is 8-12" here. Looking doubtful. Primary is further West and stronger but as @dryslot said it is the NAM 2.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Why are Ryan and Scooter saying the NAM is correct? Yet normally it’s amped solutions are tossed by them. Interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Probably overdone but starting a snowstorm with strong SE flow at 850mb is not great! 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why are Ryan and Scooter saying the NAM is correct? Yet normally it’s amped solutions are tossed by them. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 it might not be far enough west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's your NAM clown map Hate to say it, but at the end, this may be closer to reality of what will happen vs these bigger thumps some on here are trying to hold onto. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: PArts of the Carolinas get 18" while SNE gets 2" of rain Ginxy should have started the thread. Thanks for nothing Tip. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 With climate change the new rant will end up; “the Carolinas are stealing our snow” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change Those words are forbidden 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 there was always danger this could track through BGM or SYR, most discussed this days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Those words are forbidden this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change Not just that. The models can only account for deterministic factors that humans can program into them, and the limited number of observations that feed into the baselines to generate the model output. There might be factors in modeling we're not accounting for yet that influence the weather, and we're not observing the weather in every location on the planet every second of the day for data input. So while the analogs might look "perfect" there are clearly other factors in play making this storm behave differently. The models either aren't seeing something or the atmospheric conditions, somewhere, are different than the analogs, causing this storm to behave as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: this is going to beef up storms. sorry if people don't like it This is definitely having an influence on our weather, for sure... that being said, if you go here and review the maps, the gulf stream has been above normal since at least 1996:https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data3/50km/image/twiceweekly/ssta/global/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, forkyfork said: climate change Wrong thread there Michael. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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