mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 37 minutes ago, dryslot said: The track of the slp and mid levels is not very good at H92 up here, Going to need this to move east some by sunday. Thump slot and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Um.. Bitter casting? As my mama used to say. If you don't have anything nice to say..don't say anything at all I officially rank winter in here going back to 2005……this one is solidly in the F range….it’s not close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles. in all honesty I think that is true here, all the way from the berks across nw ct and ma and straight through my area to Brian and Jeff. We are on the line in the same way I imagine. The hope is that the initial thump is strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I may try staying in Southern white mountains Sunday nite -Monday . I’m having dinner in Manchester NH so it won’t be that far a drive . Just don’t want ice you should do that! you won't have ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles. Would you put most of CT in that as well? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I do expect the interior to stay wedged....the question is whether it's mostly just ORH county and Berks or if most of SNE away from the coast stays wedged. Won't be much pack to protect though unless we can keep the mid-level warmth at bay for several hours during the heavy stuff. What about the 3-5” glacier OTG prior to storm ? If we stay at 34.. you’d think you’d come east with some pack . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, ice1972 said: I officially rank winter in here going back to 2005……this one is solidly in the F range….it’s not close So what happens with the next 3 weeks of January and 4 weeks of February? Are you calling those a done deal as well? If so.. Then why bother post anymore this season. Your only going to post non productive comments. See ya next year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 hours ago, codfishsnowman said: So conservative for upstate NY? No, SNE...I couldn't care less about NYS, nor does Harvey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: you should do that! you won't have ice. You’ll probably do well up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Gfs stalls and moves due east from NY bight. Damn interior peeps would love that. That's a horse of a different color. Rooting for ski areas and winter enthusiasts. Should be a long run of storms and rumors of storms. Fluff Refreshers and Sierra cementers with one super fluff bomb thrown in. Go go go wax um up Something sure bites, and its not only New York, its this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, ice1972 said: I officially rank winter in here going back to 2005……this one is solidly in the F range….it’s not close The "mid term" grade is a solid F- at this point. Time will tell if the "semester" grade can be improved before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 In the FWIW dept. Now cast range, HRRR has 5 H much farther south and dipping toes in the GOM. That has implications down the road if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles. Beware the warm tongue! It is always closer than it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Something sure bites, and its not only New York, its this storm. Bite into this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers? I don't care where it trends, at this point...entirely futile and won't make a bit of difference for me. I don't care whether the high is 36 or 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not the time or place for grading winter ya think. There's a panic room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Bite into this If it would make it snow here, sure....we are going to be entering the final third of January with me struggling to double digit seasonal snowfall on the NH border. That in and of itself is notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Something sure bites, and its not only New York, its this storm. More cheese if you need it with your whine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Not the time or place for grading winter ya think. There's a panic room How is your 6" snowfall on the 84 hour NAM looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: More cheese if you need it with your whine More delusions if you need them with your last 2 days worth of model interpretation. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it would make it snow here, sure....we are going to be entering the final third of January with me struggling to double digit seasonal snowfall on the NH border. That in and of itself is notable. 9.5 inches so far in Methuen. Six of those inches fell in one day.....I agree it has been notable for the lack of snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wind and any coastal flooding will probably be the main headlines outside of the Berks...could be impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it would make it snow here, sure....we are going to be entering the final third of January with me struggling to double digit seasonal snowfall on the NH border. That in and of itself is notable. I'm at... 10" for the season? Up and in hasn't helped... It has been laughable We should still have chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm at... 10" for the season? Up and in hasn't helped... It has been laughable We should still have chances... Yea, this season will have the potential to make up a lot of ground in short order, but to keep saying it without results must cause a lot of eye rolls at this point...can't blame people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What about the 3-5” glacier OTG prior to storm ? If we stay at 34.. you’d think you’d come east with some pack . Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened. This winter finds new ways to disappoint... Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that. If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Beware the warm tongue! It is always closer than it appears Well, one thing the NAM often gets right is the mid-level warm push. I would really like to see that shift a little less aggressive over the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: 9.5 inches so far in Methuen. Six of those inches fell in one day.....I agree it has been notable for the lack of snowfall. The Northern Berkshire are under 10 inches for the season, that is very impressive and mildly depressing. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 39 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Thump slot and drizzle Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: The Northern Berkshire are under 10 inches for the season, that is very impressive and mildly depressing. Lol I am assuming that area is on pace for record low snowfall?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there may be a frozen glacier at the end....but meh. If it's not at least 5-6", it kind of sucks at this point. If we get a 6+ thump, I'm all for it....but my worry is we get about 2" before the flip which is useless. I don't see this trending back east aloft enough to matter....but stranger things have happened. This winter finds new ways to disappoint... Probably one of the most incredible storm evolutions I've ever seen. Every single CIPS analog for that ULL position down south has us either getting big snow or some of them actually fringe us....not s single one rips the storm to our west (at least aloft), yet this time, it is going to achieve that. If you showed me this below map at 24 hours before the storm begins and told me we'd get drenched with rain from an inland runner, I'd think you were on drugs....lol Yea, that is the maddening part.....the seasons like 2019-2020 and 2011-2012 are easier to tolerate. I was sure this season wouldn't be like that, and it hasn't, yet the snowfall has still mirrored those seasons and mine is actually worse than the former. I at least got that big December dump in 2019. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now