mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 z Euro pops a 984 at the elbow looks like a mesolow that will keep some tucked That’s a map that shows CON getting 6-7 me getting 8 -9 and Brian 10-11. Exit 18 ftw . Razors edge so some shifts cooler would be really helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS says I get no accumulation at all, starting as a rain snow mix. LR looks good! Technically they say two to 4 now (they upped it) but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Either way we won’t lose snow cover and it will be a block of ice next week Hoping that’s the case here. Still have 3.5-4” of glacier . Hoping to maintain pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 z Euro pops a 984 at the elbow looks like a mesolow that will keep some tucked Won’t help us aloft. Might keep the sfc colder in the 30s during the rain a d maybe produce some ZR far enough interior like N ORH county. Otherwise, no real effect in terms of snowfall. We’d need the redevelopment to happen in the midlevels for it to matter on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Hoping that’s the case here. Still have 3.5-4” of glacier . Hoping to maintain pack Man looks like you top out at 34 for 6 hrs. Add 3 to 6 on top and you good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Latest Euro gets the mix line way up into NH. Blasts me still but I hope the shifting around stops soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 What is the mid level track ? BGM-Rutland-HIE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Won’t help us aloft. Might keep the sfc colder in the 30s during the rain a d maybe produce some ZR far enough interior like N ORH county. Otherwise, no real effect in terms of snowfall. We’d need the redevelopment to happen in the midlevels for it to matter on snow. Right but maintains easterly inflow for the hills and points north where it matters the most anyways. They and their economy needs it more than I do. Hard to believe are still 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Fighting the good fight - still 3 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Right but maintains easterly inflow for the hills and points north where it matters the most anyways. They and their economy needs it more than I do. Hard to believe are still 3 days out Yeah it looks fine for NNE and N berks. It’s dogshit for most of SNE unless we get a meaningful shift…which still may happen but I’m skeptical given the very good model consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That’s a map that shows CON getting 6-7 me getting 8 -9 and Brian 10-11. Exit 18 ftw . Razors edge so some shifts cooler would be really helpful Good luck Mark 24hrs ago the Euro was visiting the hall of Fame. Still shifting and I think for the better for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6 z Euro pops a 984 at the elbow looks like a mesolow that will keep some tucked Hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The track of the slp and mid levels is not very good at H92 up here, Going to need this to move east some by sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 When Ginxy shifts to ski country, I tend to put the threat to bed down here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: When Ginxy shifts to ski country, I tend to put the threat to bed down here. I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 WNE and NYS looking good. My call from 4 days ago was spot on. I’ll be accepting apologies all day. Later. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll go with 6-8" here with some meat added... Should help my ski club continue into late February I haven't seen much change for MBY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 As it stands currently, this one lacked the thrill of the chase. Just so damn stubborn and consistent with modeling and it’s track. Even when it doesn’t come to fruition, it’s fun when we get model swings showing something favorable and it whips the forum into a frenzy, that build up is sometimes more fun than the event itself. Didn’t have much of that this go-round, besides a random run out of Tokyo, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Garbage winter…..what did I tell you guys….the mood matters - who cares now about that storm last week…..it’s all gone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: WNE and NYS looking good. My call from 4 days ago was spot on. I’ll be accepting apologies all day. Later. Sorry not sorry? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 36 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Fighting the good fight - still 3 days out Headed to Rochester sunday morning 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Interesting NWS discussion of upper levels in Berks: In terms of where any warm nose could track. The best chances for any mix would be the mid Hudson Valley, NW CT and perhaps the southern Berkshires. The very strong southeast to east boundary layer winds push well into eastern NY but such a cold core closed upper low could limit the north and west extent of the boundary layer warm nose but again, those details are not completely clear yet. Usually, the benchmark track of the upper system for all snow in our region is the upper low tracking more toward Cape Cod, which keeps any warm air well to the east but we will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 On the plus side, we'll be able to enjoy watch the Patriots freeze their asses off instead of looking at models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'll go with 6-8" here with some meat added... Should help my ski club continue into late February I haven't seen much change for MBY Your area is the most uncertain IMHO....I could see you getting 8-10" but I could also see you only getting 2-4" if this mid-level warm creep continues on guidance for another couple of cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I was giving it until about 72 hours lead time…we’ve now gotten there and guidance is locked and loaded. If anything, I actually expect this to warm/amp up a bit more as we often see in southern stream systems…we’ll get that warm trend until maybe 24h out and then a little messenger shuffle. NAM is hinting at the mid-level warmth the most but I wouldn’t discount it just because it’s the NAM. Synoptically it makes sense. Hopefully we get an east tick, but how often do we see those with southern stream juicers? Not often but so is this sfc track. Stranger things have happened. A couple ticks east can help some locals keep a pack…that’s the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Headed to Rochester sunday morning I may try staying in Southern white mountains Sunday nite -Monday . I’m having dinner in Manchester NH so it won’t be that far a drive . Just don’t want ice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Garbage winter…..what did I tell you guys….the mood matters - who cares now about that storm last week…..it’s all gone now Um.. Bitter casting? As my mama used to say. If you don't have anything nice to say..don't say anything at all 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not often but so is this sfc track. Stranger things have happened. A couple ticks east can help some locals keep a pack…that’s the best case. I do expect the interior to stay wedged....the question is whether it's mostly just ORH county and Berks or if most of SNE away from the coast stays wedged. Won't be much pack to protect though unless we can keep the mid-level warmth at bay for several hours during the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good luck Mark 24hrs ago the Euro was visiting the hall of Fame. Still shifting and I think for the better for you hopefully I can send some 2/hour video on Monday morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now