Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My favorite map he ever made was Jan 26th 2011 for the 27th storm. He had 0 here because he was off the rails about RIC getting 0

I know Kev hates him, but my view on him is he really knows his stuff.....but he wears his emotions on his sleeve, and I think that in conjunction with his dyslexia can sometimes negatively impact his ability to effectively convey information. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know Kev hates him, but my view on him is he really knows his stuff.....but he wears his emotions on his sleeve, and I think that in conjunction with his dyslexia can sometimes negatively impact his ability to effectively convey information. 

Off topic but NAM and GFS banding at 0Z indicate some pretty far inland snow tomorrow night.  What a mess the Cape will be for Ryan. Rain to 2 to 3 inches snow with flash freeze 60 plus mph winds wind chills -20s to heavy rain

[Ginx snewx]

Harvey putting out a 84 hr snow map. Remember what I said earlier how times have changed.  Ryan was aghast in 2011 at Wankums 60 hr map

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Harvey putting out a 84 hr snow map. Remember what I said earlier how times have changed.  Ryan was aghast in 2011 at Wankums 60 hr map

Ha...that is even a bit more conservative than mine.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha...that is even a bit more conservative than mine.

So conservative for upstate NY?

[Ginx snewx]

Euro likes hills rest meh.  NAM  RGEM are blow torch. A little east again on both. Euro huge jump for the North country no longer visiting the HOF

[moneypitmike]

I knew from the dearth of new pages when I logged on that things were not looking good.  Hopefully we can dry out before any meaningful rains.

[Ginx snewx]

Well Kevin at least you got your screaming sòueaster

[Ginx snewx]

Gfs stalls and moves due east from NY bight. Damn interior peeps would love that.  That's a horse of a different color.  Rooting for ski areas and winter enthusiasts. Should be a long run of storms and rumors of storms. Fluff Refreshers and Sierra cementers with one super fluff bomb thrown in. Go go go wax um up

[moneypitmike]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well Kevin at least you got your screaming sòueaster

A big gust up his rump in that image.

[Damage In Tolland]

54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well Kevin at least you got your screaming sòueaster

You mailing it in on any snow for SNE?

[klw]

From the BTV morning AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EST Friday...On Monday, a cut-off low will lift
northeast and reassimilate with the mid-latitude westerlies. A
period of snow is expected as a warm front lifts north before
dawn on Monday. For portions of our southern counties, a brief
interval of a mix or some freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out
late Monday morning into early afternoon, and then some
additional snow in the northwest flow is expected as the system
departs Monday evening. A period of hazardous travel is likely,
mainly Monday morning, but perhaps during the evening as well
once we see snow redevelop on the backside of the system. A
small window of strong, gusty winds is also possible for the
southern Greens Monday morning, but the chances appears smaller
this forecast cycle. QPF values are starting to become
clustered, and thus snow totals are as well. A widespread 3 to 6
inches is most likely, with locally higher amounts in eastern
slopes of the southern Greens and Adirondacks around 6 to 8
inches. Across the St. Lawrence Valley, some heavier snow
appears possible, which would yield higher snowfall amounts,
generally between 6 to 10 inches. These are very early
estimates, and we are still just outside the range of mesoscale
models. So anticipate some refinements.

On the meteorological side, there`s not much change to note. The
pros to widespread precipitation include: strong cyclonic vorticity
advection, isentropic upglide upwards of 100mb off 70 knot winds at
290K, a coupled jet structure assisting in supporting strong
updrafts, and the upslope component on the eastern slopes.
Additionally, forecast FGEN/Deformation appears like it could be a
bit more concentrated over the St. Lawrence Valley, with the
potential for a pivoting mesoband based on forecast sounding
hodographs. On the cons side: brief intrusion of mid-level dry air,
terrain downsloping in strong east flow, fragmented FGEN/Deformation
outside the St. Lawrence Valley, the potential for a brief period of
sleet in southern Vermont, and strong winds fragmenting dendrites
(lower SLR values). Indeed, the Cobb method indicates SLR values
fluctuating between 8:1 and 12:1 over Rutland, but is forecast to be
higher over the St. Lawrence Valley, where values fluctuate more
between 10:1 and 15:1. Even in model precipitation outputs, one can
see the impacts of terrain shadowing and the dry mid-level air with
a gap in QPF values that traverse right over Vermont due to the
low`s track near or just south of the forecast area. Overall the
forecast has become more tightly clustered, but we remain just
outside the cusp of mesoscale models. So some changes remain
possible in the exact placement of things like mesoscale features
and mid-level thermal conditions, but the overall picture is coming
in to focus. Probabilities greater than 4" are generally between 60-
90% for our forecast area from the NBM, and also based off CIPS
analogs. We need this snow, with our deficit for the season ranging
from 10-15" below average. So, this event will mostly be beneficial
for our area, but stay up to date with the forecast for your travel
interests. Activity will taper towards the mountain and come to a
close during the day on Tuesday.

[Torch Tiger]

thankfully didn't invest in any "major" storms or any dangerously cornering "epic" lingo on this turd.  That'd have been tragic

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well Kevin at least you got your screaming sòueaster

Montauk with hurricane force gusts? 

[Chrisrotary12]

For my backyard I’m expecting 3” of slop, 0.5” of rain, then drizzle & fog.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will gone 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You mailing it in on any snow for SNE?

No calls until Saturday at 2

[CoastalWx]

LOL this is Ginxy. "Nothing is over....you don't just turn it off..."   

 

 

 

[mahk_webstah]

We just need that secondary to pop early enough according to GYX, to keep us mostly snow up here.  Says those features don’t show themselves till closer to the event. But wpc does have secondary at 992 just south of LI while 988 over ne pa 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL this is Ginxy. "Nothing is over....you don't just turn it off..."   

 

 

 

Depends on where you live there Mr Former Forecaster 

MFF

[mahk_webstah]

Either way we won’t lose snow cover and it will be a block of ice next week

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

We just need that secondary to pop early enough according to GYX, to keep us mostly snow up here.  Says those features don’t show themselves till closer to the event. But wpc does have secondary at 992 just south of LI while 988 over ne pa 

Nah it's over

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We just need that secondary to pop early enough according to GYX, to keep us mostly snow up here.  Says those features don’t show themselves till closer to the event. But wpc does have secondary at 992 just south of LI while 988 over ne pa 

Thump, dryslot, drizz, net gain

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thump, dryslot, drizz, net gain

Check your PM

[Cold Miser]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will gone 

It's been over since Wednesday for us.

What's left of my snow took a nice hit overnight. Fog city most of the night. 

Enjoy the frigid temps, they're the only ones we got.
 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Thump, dryslot, drizz, net gain

A significant net gain.  6-10 with maybe 12 in spots that get 3/hour for a bit.  If we can one more big storm before month end it will be a real nice pack

[ORH_wxman]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Will gone 

Nothing left to really track with this one down here. Model guidance looks locked in. If we see a move, I’ll become more invested again, but right now it’s just whack-a-mole. 
 

I’m expecting maybe 2-3” and then a gully washer. I think 6+ is reserved for N ORH county and Berkshires. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Nothing left to really track with this one down here. Model guidance looks locked in. If we see a move, I’ll become more invested again, but right now it’s just whack-a-mole. 
 

I’m expecting maybe 2-3” and then a gully washer. I think 6+ is reserved for N ORH county and Berkshires. 

6 z Euro pops a 984 at the elbow looks like a mesolow that will keep some tucked

[EastonSN+]

NWS says I get no accumulation at all, starting as a rain snow mix. LR looks good!

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

6 z Euro pops a 984 at the elbow looks like a mesolow that will keep some tucked