HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 It’s fun to watch them modeling but I can’t really get invested in this until Thursday. Ensembles will hopefully have tightened the goalposts by Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 For those of us who would prefer this not track up the Hudson or CT River valley...what trends do you think we should keep an eye out for in future runs? Besides the obvious of a storm being present. The whole trough axis 100 miles east, weaker northern stream diving in, greater or less spacing between the southern and northern streams? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Could be all that, We're at day 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 P&C forecast is 50% probs for snow Monday, That's a good signal for this lead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: P&C forecast is 50% probs for snow Monday, That's a good signal for this lead. You're going to have to fire up your map skills for the boys over at HCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: You're going to have to fire up your map skills for the boys over at HCS I just went over and talked a few down of the ledge for starters..........lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 18Z GFS is west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: 18Z GFS is west so far the high was better too, i thought. but yeah, it just was so far west. still, might have been a hellacious front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Even further west than 12 Z. Ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Looks great. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 56 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I noted that in my AFD this morning. Ensembles show spread in two ways, in time and in position. Usually you’ll see those 24 hour QPF lines for every member with a random scattering of events throughout time. However the ensembles right now are all showing the same time window for precip. The ones that don’t are because they are out to sea, not because they don’t think they’ll be a storm. It’s a pretty strong signal, especially this far out. From BTV's afternoon AFD: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 For early next week, the latest data has trended more amplified with a strong storm system after it moves across the Southeast US in response to a northern stream trough tugging it northward. If the storm is steered northward, we will see at least some effect but it is too early to know in what way at this time. The latest GFS ensemble suggests a 20 to 30% chance of seeing at least a 0.5" of liquid, indicative of at least a moderate snowfall, in Vermont westward through the Adirondacks. Similar trends in the CMC and ECMWF global guidance on this forecast cycle occurred. Note this is a massive shift for ensembles of data, as those initialized 12 hours earlier indicated low chances of any precipitation for our area. As a result, we cannot assume a trend yet but have increased precipitation chances substantially to split the difference between the latest deterministic guidance and the National Blend of Models. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Gfs is very amped Onto 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Ugly. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Primary in central PA instead of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Lol the low is going into Ontario. Maybe we can get it to trend so far west that it gets forced under by the trailing wave and turns into a Miller B instead on the Euro and Canadian guidance? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks great. even for you, it's mostly just a front end thrashing. 925 is flooded with that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: even for you, it's mostly just a front end thrashing. 925 is flooded with that track I meant where it is at day 6........lol, Id rather see it here then having to reel it back west on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Rahhhhhchester special on the GFS. Strong downsloping signal. Dec 92 redux with better antecedent airmass? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Great run for Pittsburgh. When's the last time they jacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Maybe we can get a cutter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 strange track for sure.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 frigid frigid frigid rain frigid frigid frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 you all wanted that Friday storm to miss well offshore..well a closer brush or hit may have helped keep this under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: you all wanted that Friday storm to miss well offshore..well a closer brush or hit may have helped keep this under us. “Let’s get that Friday deal weak and out of the way so that Monday storm can cut to Buffalo” 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we can get a cutter. HVR, Those have not been common either over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Good thing it’s the GFS showing it, the GFS is horrible. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 1st priority is a good base builder for the ski areas. Some of us might have to sacrifice some snow at home, but sometimes ya gotta take one for the team. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Just now, George001 said: Good thing it’s the GFS showing it, the GFS is horrible. ask yourself, if it showed a blizzard..would you be saying this. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Mark my word This will be a coastal crusher 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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