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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nothing wrong per se, but I myself don't really see the value in beating those large scale features at this juncture....I think the major details to iron out are the more nuanced features that we were discussing earlier this evening. But it's a weather forum...knock yourself out.

Momma said knock you out…

I get your stance though. There are small nuances that will make a difference especially down here and my coverage is CNJ, SWCT to HFD so…I keep tracking to provide the best possible update to my family and friends. Like my friend from CNJ texted me an hour ago asking how much snow lol because he heard a big is storm coming lol. Love the guy but clueless about weather, as most are. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Momma said knock you out…

I get your stance though. There are small nuances that will make a difference especially down here and my coverage is CNJ, SWCT to HFD so…I keep tracking to provide the best possible update to my family and friends. Like my friend from CNJ texted me an hour ago asking how much snow lol because he heard a big is storm coming lol. Love the guy but clueless about weather, as most are. 

This. Why wouldn’t we track 4 days out. I mean I guess we base it on the stellar model performances and let it ride?

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Narcan man what say you about your preferred.  Weird eh?

Screenshot_20220113-232822_Chrome.jpg

Its my preferred snow algorithm, but it's still merely a tool....sure, if all I did was rip and read that on my blog, then clearly I would forecast 9.7" of snow for you. 

I would also view more than one model....

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its my preferred snow algorithm, but it's still merely a tool....sure, if all I did was rip and read that on my blog, then clearly I would forecast 9.7" of snow for you. 

I would also view more than one model....

9.7 is the exact number my wunderground page for Boscawen NH is showing.  It is like 4 or 5 days in a row now that I've had between 8 and 11 inches forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its my preferred snow algorithm, but it's still merely a tool....sure, if all I did was rip and read that on my blog, then clearly I would forecast 9.7" of snow for you. 

I would also view more than one model....

Here's a model to consider gives you a foot on Narcan

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

925th.us_ne.png

925th.us_ne (1).png

prateptype_cat.us_ne (1).png

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I said this earlier tonight, Steve, but I feel as though the GFS is overdoing QPF east of the mid level lows...classic model bias. I know that you are aware, but meteorology, not modelology....any snowfall algorithm is only as good as the model output from which it is derived....so yea, I will punt the 20" in N ORH county on the GFS to the moon and back.

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I think we know this is not gonna be a big deal for areas near the coast or even over much of SNE. The big question now is hows it going to do for the ski resorts that are in desperate need right now of a nice natural dump: that includes the Adirondacks, Catskills, Berks, Vermont New Hampshire and Maine. I wouldn’t say it’s desperation for them but it’s very much needed. They all pretty much staying white?

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